Is it plausible Oswald could have completely missed the limo with his first shot

[Tom Graves]

Question:

“Does a full metal jacket bullet ricochet off of hard asphalt differently than it would off of softer asphalt?”


Google AI answer:

“Yes, a Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) bullet ricochets differently off hard versus softer asphalt. Hard asphalt behaves like solid concrete, often causing the bullet to skid or skip. Softer asphalt acts as a yielding surface, absorbing energy and altering the bullet's departure angle.

Hard AsphaltBehavior:

 Highly rigid and unyielding. The copper or gilding metal jacket of the FMJ remains largely intact upon impact.Trajectory: Because it doesn't break apart, the bullet skids across the surface. It will often ricochet at a very shallow, dangerous angle.


Softer Asphalt Behavior:

 Richer in bitumen and softer aggregates, yielding to the force of the bullet.Trajectory: The bullet tends to penetrate slightly, transferring more of its energy to the road. This penetration can create a "ramping" effect, sometimes throwing the deformed bullet or its fragments into a higher, steeper departure angle. The bullet is also more prone to losing stability, tumbling, and breaking apart.”

The image below of the Haags’ demonstration leads me to believe that the asphalt that they used was much softer than what I would expect the surface of Elm Street to be. Plus you can see the asphalt mixture with stones, etc that can vary in many ways.

Regarding James Tague's nicked cheek, what happened to the largish fragment(s) from the Z-313 head-shot bullet that were never found?

[Mark Wellhausen]

A possibility: The first two shots were misses because Oswald had to sight-in his rifle. The first shot missed completely, and the second hit JFK in the back, but those 2 shots let Oswald sight-in the rifle. With the third, he hit his target, Kennedy's head. He needed to sight-in the rifle because he had broken it down to carry it into the TSBD.

[Charles Collins]

Regarding James Tague's nicked cheek, what happened to the largish fragment(s) from the Z-313 head-shot bullet that were never found?

Some very knowledgeable folks believe one of those fragments might have been involved in Tague’s incident. But I find it interesting that the possible trajectory of an early missed first shot hitting Elm Street to the right of the limo also could have conceivably been involved in Tague’s incident. I think that this speaks volumes about the direction (almost directly away from the sniper’s nest) of travel of the limo during those 8 to 10 seconds.

[Andrew Mason]

Some very knowledgeable folks believe one of those fragments might have been involved in Tague’s incident. But I find it interesting that the possible trajectory of an early missed first shot hitting Elm Street to the right of the limo also could have conceivably been involved in Tague’s incident. I think that this speaks volumes about the direction (almost directly away from the sniper’s nest) of travel of the limo during those 8 to 10 seconds.

So we ignore the only evidence as to the shot on which Tague was struck…

[John Corbett]

So we ignore the only evidence as to the shot on which Tague was struck…

There is no definitive evidence as to which shot caused Tague's injury.

[Andrew Mason]

There is no definitive evidence as to which shot caused Tague's injury.

I said “the only evidence”.