Is it plausible Oswald could have completely missed the limo with his first shot

[Charles Collins]

The Haag ballistics team demonstrated that a Carcano bullet fired directly into asphalt and at the estimated angle Oswald's bullet would have hit the pavement would complete disintegrate and not ricochet. I don't think either a tree branch or the traffic arm would have been in the line of fire when the first shot was fired but because we don't have definitive proof of precisely when that shot was fired, it can't be ruled out.

I wasn’t convinced that a Carcano bullet would not ricochet off of Elm Street by the Haag demonstration.

1).  I believe that the asphalt surface of Elm Street is much harder than the piece of asphalt that the Haags used.

2).  The Haags’ demonstration used a horizontal bullet trajectory from the rifle to the asphalt. The trajectory from the sixth floor window of the TSBD to the Elm Street surface is about 35-degrees downward from horizontal and the surface of the street slopes downward about 3% also. BTW, this angle is close to the ideal angle for skipping stones across water.

3).  I believe that the backstop of the Haags’ demonstration was not tall enough to be able to show a ricochet that might have gone over the top of it.

4).  Bullets don’t just disintegrate into nothingness. They should have been able to find and recover some fragments of the bullet. But they apparently were not able to find any fragments. In my opinion, that’s reason enough to believe that the ricochet went over the top of the backstop.

[Andrew Mason]

4).  Bullets don’t just disintegrate into nothingness. They should have been able to find and recover some fragments of the bullet. But they apparently were not able to find any fragments. In my opinion, that’s reason enough to believe that the ricochet went over the top of the backstop.

I agree. But I also don’t think that an inch or so of asphalt is enough to stop the bullet. Their superficial examination of the crater wasn’t enough of a search. If the Haags had xrayed the asphalt or probed deeper they may have found the bullet buried in it.

[John Corbett]

I wasn’t convinced that a Carcano bullet would not ricochet off of Elm Street by the Haag demonstration.

1).  I believe that the asphalt surface of Elm Street is much harder than the piece of asphalt that the Haags used.

2).  The Haags’ demonstration used a horizontal bullet trajectory from the rifle to the asphalt. The trajectory from the sixth floor window of the TSBD to the Elm Street surface is about 35-degrees downward from horizontal and the surface of the street slopes downward about 3% also. BTW, this angle is close to the ideal angle for skipping stones across water.

3).  I believe that the backstop of the Haags’ demonstration was not tall enough to be able to show a ricochet that might have gone over the top of it.

4).  Bullets don’t just disintegrate into nothingness. They should have been able to find and recover some fragments of the bullet. But they apparently were not able to find any fragments. In my opinion, that’s reason enough to believe that the ricochet went over the top of the backstop.

As I recall, they tilted the asphalt surface to create the angle the bullet would have struck the surface at. I can't speak to the hardness of the surface they had created. You are correct that new asphalt would be a bit softer than older asphalt since the latter would get compressed over time. I think it will forever be a mystery as to what happened to that bullet. Did it disintegrate? Did it strike the tree or the traffic arm? Did it ricochet down Elm St and cross Main St and strike the curb near Tague? None of the above? I think none of these can be ruled in nor ruled out. I think it will remain an open question.

[Charles Collins]

I agree. But I also don’t think that an inch or so of asphalt is enough to stop the bullet. Their superficial examination of the crater wasn’t enough of a search. If the Haags had xrayed the asphalt or probed deeper they may have found the bullet buried in it.

If I remember correctly, the crater was about the size of my fist. Yes, I am disappointed that they gave up finding the bullet so easily.

[Charles Collins]

As I recall, they tilted the asphalt surface to create the angle the bullet would have struck the surface at. I can't speak to the hardness of the surface they had created. You are correct that new asphalt would be a bit softer than older asphalt since the latter would get compressed over time. I think it will forever be a mystery as to what happened to that bullet. Did it disintegrate? Did it strike the tree or the traffic arm? Did it ricochet down Elm St and cross Main St and strike the curb near Tague? None of the above? I think none of these can be ruled in nor ruled out. I think it will remain an open question.

I don’t remember the Haags saying where the piece of asphalt came from. It looks to me like it might have been relatively new. Plus there are many factors that might have played a role on Elm Street. Elm Street is a major artery street in a very busy city. Lots of traffic, including heavy trucks, etc compressing the asphalt. A painted lane marker might be a part of the equation that imparted a relatively slick surface for a bullet to skid on as it ricocheted.

I bolded the idea that you specified that makes the most sense to me. I think that it also might have made the bullet mark on the manhole cover apron. See the thread titled “The Other Single Bullet Theory” that I posted a while back.

[John Corbett]

I don’t remember the Haags saying where the piece of asphalt came from. It looks to me like it might have been relatively new. Plus there are many factors that might have played a role on Elm Street. Elm Street is a major artery street in a very busy city. Lots of traffic, including heavy trucks, etc compressing the asphalt. A painted lane marker might be a part of the equation that imparted a relatively slick surface for a bullet to skid on as it ricocheted.

I witnessed an interesting phenomenon when I used to work in downtown Columbus, Oh. Broad St. is the major east-west street through downtown Columbus and I worked at Broad and 3rd Streets for almost 20 years which was right across from the State Capitol building. The far right lane on eastbound Broad St. is a right turn only lane onto southbound 3rd St which is a one way street. There was a fairly new asphalt surface on Broad St. with the crosswalk paint still very vivid. The cars in the right hand turn lane on eastbound Broad St. that had stopped to make the turn onto southbound 3rd St. had stretched out the crosswalk lines where the tires would typically have crossed. It had formed two distinct points in the crosswalk lines about 18" long. It speaks to the elasticity of asphalt.

[Charles Collins]

I witnessed an interesting phenomenon when I used to work in downtown Columbus, Oh. Broad St. is the major east-west street through downtown Columbus and I worked at Broad and 3rd Streets for almost 20 years which was right across from the State Capitol building. The far right lane on eastbound Broad St. is a right turn only lane onto southbound 3rd St which is a one way street. There was a fairly new asphalt surface on Broad St. with the crosswalk paint still very vivid. The cars in the right hand turn lane on eastbound Broad St. that had stopped to make the turn onto southbound 3rd St. had stretched out the crosswalk lines where the tires would typically have crossed. It had formed two distinct points in the crosswalk lines about 18" long. It speaks to the elasticity of asphalt.

Question:

“Does a full metal jacket bullet ricochet off of hard asphalt differently than it would off of softer asphalt?”


Google AI answer:

“Yes, a Full Metal Jacket (FMJ) bullet ricochets differently off hard versus softer asphalt. Hard asphalt behaves like solid concrete, often causing the bullet to skid or skip. Softer asphalt acts as a yielding surface, absorbing energy and altering the bullet's departure angle.

Hard AsphaltBehavior:

 Highly rigid and unyielding. The copper or gilding metal jacket of the FMJ remains largely intact upon impact.Trajectory: Because it doesn't break apart, the bullet skids across the surface. It will often ricochet at a very shallow, dangerous angle.


Softer AsphaltBehavior:

 Richer in bitumen and softer aggregates, yielding to the force of the bullet.Trajectory: The bullet tends to penetrate slightly, transferring more of its energy to the road. This penetration can create a "ramping" effect, sometimes throwing the deformed bullet or its fragments into a higher, steeper departure angle. The bullet is also more prone to losing stability, tumbling, and breaking apart.”

The image below of the Haags’ demonstration leads me to believe that the asphalt that they used was much softer than what I would expect the surface of Elm Street to be. Plus you can see the asphalt mixture with stones, etc that can vary in many ways.