Is it plausible Oswald could have completely missed the limo with his first shot

[John Corbett]

I think ignore might be the wrong word. But it is very easy for me to discount it enough to allow the possibility of an early first shot being the culprit.


Mr. LIEBELER. How long after did you feel yourself get hit by anything?
Mr. TAGUE. I felt it at the time, but I didn't associate, didn't make any connection, and ignored it. And after this happened, or maybe the second or third shot, I couldn't tell you definitely--I made no connection. I looked around wondering what was going on, and I recall this. We got to talking, and I recall that something had stinged me, and then the deputy sheriff looked up and said, "You have blood there on your cheek." That is when we walked back down there.
Mr. LIEBELER. Do you have any idea which bullet might have made that mark?
Mr. TAGUE. I would guess it was either the second or third. I wouldn't say definitely on which one.
Mr. LIEBELER. Did you hear any more shots after you felt yourself get hit in the face?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe I did.
Mr. LIEBELER. You think you did?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe I did.
Mr. LIEBELER. How many?
Mr. TAGUE. I believe that it was the second shot, so I heard the third shot afterwards.
Mr. LIEBELER. Did you hear three shots?
Mr. TAGUE. I heard three shots; yes sir. And I did notice the time on the Hertz clock. It was 12:29.
Mr. LIEBELER. That was about the time that you felt yourself struck?
Mr. TAGUE. I just glanced. I mean I just stopped, got out of my car, and here came the motorcade. I just happened upon the scene.

I think we can safely rule out the single bullet as the cause of Tague's minor injury. I've gone back and forth on whether it was a ricochet from the first shot or a fragment from the headshot.  There are arguments for and against both. To me it's a jump ball. We'll never really know nor do we need to.

For a while, I theorized that it might not have been caused by a shot at all but maybe a pebble tossed up by the traffic on Main St. but when I read there was a chip in the curb with a lead smear, that kind of ruled that out.

[Andrew Mason]

I think we can safely rule out the single bullet as the cause of Tague's minor injury.

The scientist would use the evidence to test the theory.   In this case you are using the theory to test the evidence. If the evidence doesn’t fit the theory you reject the evidence.  And it is not just Tague’s evidence. What is remarkable is that no one thinks this is a problem except me (and most of the CTers, except when it applies to their own theories).

For a while, I theorized that it might not have been caused by a shot at all but maybe a pebble tossed up by the traffic on Main St. but when I read there was a chip in the curb with a lead smear, that kind of ruled that out.

So if the road had deflected the fragment leaving nothing that anyone observed you would be arguing that theory... hmm.

[John Corbett]

The scientist would use the evidence to test the theory.   In this case you are using the theory to test the evidence. If the evidence doesn’t fit the theory you reject the evidence.  And it is not just Tague’s evidence. What is remarkable is that no one thinks this is a problem except me (and most of the CTers, except when it applies to their own theories).
So if the road had deflected the fragment leaving nothing that anyone observed you would be arguing that theory... hmm.

I love being lectured on the scientific method by a guy who has arrived at one of the goofiest scenarios ever concocted.