"Overthinking" (or maybe not?) the Walker attempt

[Zeon Mason]

That scope on that MC rifle was mounted to the left side of the stock and it’s doubtful what range the scope had been zeroed at and when it had last been checked.

And when was the last time that Oswald  had shot at a moving target prior to Nov/22/63 anyway?

So a near miss to the right side of the limo is certainly plausible at the shorter range which requires a faster tracking adjustment by the shooter to keep the scope reticle or the iron sights on target.

As has been noted before, a professional shooter probably would never have chosen this scenario of shooting at a moving target from high elevation  when there was ample opportunity to have shot  at a stationary JFK  giving a speech from a position at approx same elevation.

A CT alternative might be that a BOP survivor   decided to shoot JFK in Dealey Plaza as a spectacle execution as revenge for his fellow BOP comrades being betrayed. This person perhaps was infuriated that Oswald was a pro Castro Marxist kook from having seen Oswald in New Orleans.

[Lance Payette]

There is no federal law requiring records being kept for sales between individuals. Gun dealers have been required to keep records of gun purchases since 1938. The fact Oswald decided to purchase a rifle via mail order rather than from a private seller is evidence of nothing. Trying to read Oswald's mind an any point in time is a futile effort.

We don't have to read his mind. A mere two days after completing his preparations for the attempt on Walker, and while living in the most gun-happy, gun-friendly state in America, he chose to buy a cheap rifle by mail from a dealer in Illinois using his own post office box and an alias when he could have easily bought a better rifle that would have been completely untraceable right there in Dallas. This is what he did, regardless of why. The law allows a judge or jury to draw reasonable inferences from the evidence. There is a clear disconnect that, together with other evidence, might lead to reasonable inferences that there was no such preparation, or Oswald didn't order the rifle, or Oswald had no intent to shoot at Walker.

This is likewise true with history. Historians are entitled to draw reasonable inferences, and sometimes their reasonable inferences are quite different. You seem to want to think that the LN narrative itself is a fact, when it simply isn't. It's a plausible account of what occurred, but it isn't sacrosanct and it isn't without problem areas. I have highlighted some of the aspects that nag at me, not in an effort to read Oswald's mind but to try to make sense of what he did in the context of the LN narrative - or any other narrative that might more plausibly explain what he did.

Ditto with his choice to assemble his rifle and set up the sniper's nest on the 6th floor of the building where he was employed, having no way to control who might be on that floor and having little chance of escaping without being seen, captured or killed, when he could have exited the building with his "curtain rods" and set up in a location far less risky. Again, we are talking about what he did, not why. One reasonable inference might be "He didn't do that. He wasn't on the sixth floor." - which happens to be exactly what he claimed.

I'm not saying by any means that the only reasonable inferences favor some conspiracy theory. I'm simply saying that when we look at the evidence of what Oswald did, much of it seems somewhat problematical for the LN narrative.

[John Corbett]

We don't have to read his mind. A mere two days after completing his preparations for the attempt on Walker, and while living in the most gun-happy, gun-friendly state in America, he chose to buy a cheap rifle by mail from a dealer in Illinois using his own post office box and an alias when he could have easily bought a better rifle that would have been completely untraceable right there in Dallas. This is what he did, regardless of why. The law allows a judge or jury to draw reasonable inferences from the evidence. There is a clear disconnect that, together with other evidence, might lead to reasonable inferences that there was no such preparation, or Oswald didn't order the rifle, or Oswald had no intent to shoot at Walker.

The evidence is clear. Oswald ordered the rifle and received it at his PO Box. He had taken pictures of Walker's residence in preparation for the attempt on his life. The fact he didn't do the things you would have done in his circumstance isn't terribly relevant.

This is likewise true with history. Historians are entitled to draw reasonable inferences, and sometimes their reasonable inferences are quite different. You seem to want to think that the LN narrative itself is a fact, when it simply isn't.

Yes it is. The assassination only happened one way and all the credible evidence points to Oswald and no one else. The fact you are having trouble figuring it out doesn't change that fact.

It's a plausible account of what occurred, but it isn't sacrosanct and it isn't without problem areas. I have highlighted some of the aspects that nag at me, not in an effort to read Oswald's mind but to try to make sense of what he did in the context of the LN narrative - or any other narrative that might more plausibly explain what he did.

In 62 years no one has come up with a plausible alternative to what the WC presented to us that explains the evidence. The typical path the CTs go down is to try to explain away that evidence. If you insist that there is a plausible alternative, you could demonstrate that by presenting one. You won't because you can't.

Ditto with his choice to assemble his rifle and set up the sniper's nest on the 6th floor of the building where he was employed, having no way to control who might be on that floor and having little chance of escaping without being seen, captured or killed, when he could have exited the building with his "curtain rods" and set up in a location far less risky. Again, we are talking about what he did, not why. One reasonable inference might be "He didn't do that. He wasn't on the sixth floor." - which happens to be exactly what he claimed.

How is that remotely reasonable when his rifle, with his palmprint, and fibers matching his shirt was found on the 6th floor. The shells that were found in the sniper's nest could only have been fired by that rifle. Oswald's fingerprints were found on the boxes in the sniper's nest oriented just as they would be if he was facing down Elm St. and a bag large enough to hold the disassembled rifle that had his palm and fingerprints on the bottom. Give us a plausible scenario that takes into account all that evidence that doesn't have Oswald firing the shots from the sniper's nest. I'm not even asking you to prove your scenario. Just pressent us with another way it COULD have happened.

I'm not saying by any means that the only reasonable inferences favor some conspiracy theory. I'm simply saying that when we look at the evidence of what Oswald did, much of it seems somewhat problematical for the LN narrative.

Your half assed attempt to read Oswald's mind doesn't trump the wealth of forensic evidence that he was the assassin.

[John Corbett]

That scope on that MC rifle was mounted to the left side of the stock and it’s doubtful what range the scope had been zeroed at and when it had last been checked.

And when was the last time that Oswald  had shot at a moving target prior to Nov/22/63 anyway?

So a near miss to the right side of the limo is certainly plausible at the shorter range which requires a faster tracking adjustment by the shooter to keep the scope reticle or the iron sights on target.

As has been noted before, a professional shooter probably would never have chosen this scenario of shooting at a moving target from high elevation  when there was ample opportunity to have shot  at a stationary JFK  giving a speech from a position at approx same elevation.

A CT alternative might be that a BOP survivor   decided to shoot JFK in Dealey Plaza as a spectacle execution as revenge for his fellow BOP comrades being betrayed. This person perhaps was infuriated that Oswald was a pro Castro Marxist kook from having seen Oswald in New Orleans.

For such a short ranged shot, I doubt Oswald would have used the scope. If he used the fixed sights which were zeroed for two hundred meters, he would have had to adjust for the shorter range or he would have been aiming high. The ABC program which aired tonight showed just where the bullet struck the frame. There was a bullet hole at the very bottom of the window frame which was open about a foot and a half. If Oswald was using the fixed sights to fire a shot through that open window, it is very understandable why it would hit the bottom of the frame above the window opening.

[Lance Payette]

For such a short ranged shot, I doubt Oswald would have used the scope.

This sounds suspiciously like you are attempting to "read Oswald's mind." Again and again, you don't realize that you do exactly what you accuse others of doing - but it's "different" when you do it because you are, in your own mind anyway, the arbiter of all truth.

[John Corbett]

This sounds suspiciously like you are attempting to "read Oswald's mind." Again and again, you don't realize that you do exactly what you accuse others of doing - but it's "different" when you do it because you are, in your own mind anyway, the arbiter of all truth.

I'm speculating and I don't pretend to know this for a fact. It's really not important which sights he used. Either would likely aim high at such a short range and not surprising, the bullet struck the bottom of the window frame instead of passing through the open window. Maybe he did adjust for the short range and just fired a poor shot. It's not important to know why his shot went high. We just know that it did and likely saved Walker's life.

There's nothing wrong with speculating about things we don't have definitive evidence for as long as we recognize our speculations aren't evidence. Your problem is you use your speculations as excuses to dismiss the conclusive evidence that Oswald was the assassin. Sure, there's all that forensic evidence that Oswald was the assassin, but you try to cast doubt on that evidence because Oswald made different decisions than you think he should have made such as using his mail order rifle instead of buying an untraceable one locally. You use Oswald's attempt to reconcile with Marina as being inconsistent with someone planning to kill JFK. You disregard the fact he broke his routine by coming to Irving on a Thursday instead of the weekend and that he brought the bag he made at the TSBD with him to smuggle the rifle into the TSBD. I believe that is known as Malice Aforethought which is evidence of premeditation. Maybe he would have abandoned his plan to kill JFK if Marina had agreed to reconcile. We'll never know that. What we have ample evidence of is that he did smuggle his rifle into the TSBD the next morning and used it to kill JFK. None of your speculations about Oswald's mindset does anything to negate that evidence.

[Charles Collins]

We both recognize the difficulty of the early shot. You believe Oswald wouldn't have taken that shot on purpose due to the difficulty and I believe he took the shot even with the difficulty and missed as a result. Either seems plausible to me and there's only one person who knew the truth and he's not talking. I don't think a 3' miss would be necessary to miss the entire limo. JFK was as far to his right as possible. I estimate it would only be about 18" from his center of mass to the outside of the car. It would likely have required a miss of about 2' to miss the car entirely.  Given he likely would have raised up into a crouching position to fire at such a steep downward angle and probably wouldn't have been able to use the boxes to steady his aim, a miss of 2' seems reasonable to me.

I used to work on the 6th floor of an office building and my window was along an alley. The angle of the alley wasn't the same as Elm St. and the window didn't have a low sill like the 6th floor of the TSBD. Still, I was able to imagine myself trying fire downward at a moving target in the alley and it seemed it would have been a very difficult shot. I don't think it is a stretch to think Oswald would miss that shot badly.

I think I determined the 3’ miss distance based on my 3D computer model. I decided to try another approach using my 1/24th scale model of the limo. If we scale the 2’ and 3’ distances to 1/24th scale, they are 1” and 1.5” respectively. I cut 2” and 3” diameter targets and centered them on JFK’s head. The angles are reasonably close to the angles at Z133. Here are some resulting images:


The first image shows the two targets with a clear ruler laid on top of them in order to show their respective diameters.




The second image shows the 2” target centered on JFK’s head. This scales to be a 4’ diameter target.





The third image shows the 3” target centered on JFK’s head. This scales to be a 6’ diameter target.




As can be seen above, the 3” diameter target barely covers the limo and only at a small section of its circumference.