"Overthinking" (or maybe not?) the Walker attempt

[John Corbett]

A supported shot while seated is one of the most stable shots available to a shooter.

Yes it is and that might very well explain the missed first shot. There are a number of factors that indicate that first shot was the most difficult of the three. Given the extreme downward angle of the shot, I doubt he could have maintained a seated position nor would the boxes been much use as a rifle rest. He would have been tracking his target coming out of a sharp 110 degree curve which means the limo would have been moving in an arc until it straightened up. The target would have been moving across his line of fire as opposed to down the line of fire for the subsequent shots.

It makes one wonder why he even took that shot. Perhaps he was a disciple of Wayne Gretzgy who said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

(Yes, I know. This was long before anybody heard of Wayne Gretzky who was less than 3 years old at the time.)

[Charles Collins]

Yes it is and that might very well explain the missed first shot. There are a number of factors that indicate that first shot was the most difficult of the three. Given the extreme downward angle of the shot, I doubt he could have maintained a seated position nor would the boxes been much use as a rifle rest. He would have been tracking his target coming out of a sharp 110 degree curve which means the limo would have been moving in an arc until it straightened up. The target would have been moving across his line of fire as opposed to down the line of fire for the subsequent shots.

It makes one wonder why he even too that shot. Perhaps he was a disciple of Wayne Gretzgy who said "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

(Yes, I know. This was long before anybody heard of Wayne Gretzky who was less than 3 years old at the time.)

Just my opinion, but I believe the missed first shot was most likely inadvertent and possibly due to interference with the rifle hitting the window box, or LHO’s arm hitting the vertical pipe adjacent to the window. I think this could have occurred when LHO was raising the rifle into position to start tracking the target before it disappeared behind the oak tree. I really don’t see any reason for LHO to intentionally fire a shot that early. And if it was intentional I surely don’t think he would have missed the entire limo.

[John Corbett]

Just my opinion, but I believe the missed first shot was most likely inadvertent and possibly due to interference with the rifle hitting the window box, or LHO’s arm hitting the vertical pipe adjacent to the window. I think this could have occurred when LHO was raising the rifle into position to start tracking the target before it disappeared behind the oak tree. I really don’t see any reason for LHO to intentionally fire a shot that early. And if it was intentional I surely don’t think he would have missed the entire limo.

It's not hard to believe Oswald missed the entire limo because I'm pretty sure he was not trying to shoot the limo. He was shooting at a guy sitting on the extreme right side of the limo and if that shot missed to the right of the intended target, he misses the whole car. I'm not sure what kind of a trigger pull the Carcano rifle has but my bolt action .30-06 doesn't exactly have a hair trigger. An accidental discharge would likely require a pretty good jolt. There is an unconfirmed report of a bullet strike to the right rear of the limo. If that is where Oswald's first shot struck, that would be consistent with a pull of the trigger rather than a steady squeeze.

[Charles Collins]

It's not hard to believe Oswald missed the entire limo because I'm pretty sure he was not trying to shoot the limo. He was shooting at a guy sitting on the extreme right side of the limo and if that shot missed to the right of the intended target, he misses the whole car. I'm not sure what kind of a trigger pull the Carcano rifle has but my bolt action .30-06 doesn't exactly have a hair trigger. An accidental discharge would likely require a pretty good jolt. There is an unconfirmed report of a bullet strike to the right rear of the limo. If that is where Oswald's first shot struck, that would be consistent with a pull of the trigger rather than a steady squeeze.

I did a study a while back that compared the minutes of angle (MOA) required to miss the entire limo (if it is assumed that JFK’s head was the target) to the MOA that the USMC shooting range test results indicated LHO was capable of. I am on my phone now and not inclined to search the forum for that study. My memory is that I concluded that an intentional shot wouldn’t have missed by anything even remotely close to that amount of MOA. But you are entitled to your opinion.
The trigger pull weight of the Carcano was significantly lower than what a typical military rifle would be.

[John Corbett]

I did a study a while back that compared the minutes of angle (MOA) required to miss the entire limo (if it is assumed that JFK’s head was the target) to the MOA that the USMC shooting range test results indicated LHO was capable of. I am on my phone now and not inclined to search the forum for that study. My memory is that I concluded that an intentional shot wouldn’t have missed by anything even remotely close to that amount of MOA. But you are entitled to your opinion.
The trigger pull weight of the Carcano was significantly lower than what a typical military rifle would be.

If you add in the awkwardness of the shot, having to raise up and fire a near vertical shot through a window open only about a foot or so at a target moving across the line of fire, it's easy to see why Oswald would miss so badly. I would agree with you if he was firing at a stationary target from a steady position, but that would not have been the case so I don't see the MOA to be all that relevant to this issue. You have recognized the difficulty of that first shot by suggesting he wouldn't have taken it on purpose but the simple fact is he had a better chance of hitting JFK by taking that shot but not that much better.

[Charles Collins]

If you add in the awkwardness of the shot, having to raise up and fire a near vertical shot through a window open only about a foot or so at a target moving across the line of fire, it's easy to see why Oswald would miss so badly. I would agree with you if he was firing at a stationary target from a steady position, but that would not have been the case so I don't see the MOA to be all that relevant to this issue. You have recognized the difficulty of that first shot by suggesting he wouldn't have taken it on purpose but the simple fact is he had a better chance of hitting JFK by taking that shot but not that much better.

We will just have to disagree. Here’s a paragraph from the study I did a while back and a link in case you wish to read more.


I have related all of the above information in hopes that it might help drive home what a suggested minimum of 36” miss from the intended point of impact at a 104’ distance really looks like. It has been suggested that an intended shot missed the entire limo due to the limo’s movement. Let’s see what that would look like in MOA. A 36” miss means that 36” would be the radius of a circle target centered on the intended point of impact. That means a 72” in diameter target would have been completely missed from a distance of 104’. That size target is ~208-MOA at 104’. Does it seem reasonable to believe that LHO might have missed by that much if his shot was an intentional shot that was not interfered with? It definitely doesn’t seem reasonable to me. And that is just one reason why I believe an early missed shot was probably inadvertent due to some unexpected interference from the box in the window.


https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,4151.msg159173.html#msg159173

[John Corbett]

We will just have to disagree. Here’s a paragraph from the study I did a while back and a link in case you wish to read more.


I have related all of the above information in hopes that it might help drive home what a suggested minimum of 36” miss from the intended point of impact at a 104’ distance really looks like. It has been suggested that an intended shot missed the entire limo due to the limo’s movement. Let’s see what that would look like in MOA. A 36” miss means that 36” would be the radius of a circle target centered on the intended point of impact. That means a 72” in diameter target would have been completely missed from a distance of 104’. That size target is ~208-MOA at 104’. Does it seem reasonable to believe that LHO might have missed by that much if his shot was an intentional shot that was not interfered with? It definitely doesn’t seem reasonable to me. And that is just one reason why I believe an early missed shot was probably inadvertent due to some unexpected interference from the box in the window.


https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,4151.msg159173.html#msg159173

We both recognize the difficulty of the early shot. You believe Oswald wouldn't have taken that shot on purpose due to the difficulty and I believe he took the shot even with the difficulty and missed as a result. Either seems plausible to me and there's only one person who knew the truth and he's not talking. I don't think a 3' miss would be necessary to miss the entire limo. JFK was as far to his right as possible. I estimate it would only be about 18" from his center of mass to the outside of the car. It would likely have required a miss of about 2' to miss the car entirely.  Given he likely would have raised up into a crouching position to fire at such a steep downward angle and probably wouldn't have been able to use the boxes to steady his aim, a miss of 2' seems reasonable to me.

I used to work on the 6th floor of an office building and my window was along an alley. The angle of the alley wasn't the same as Elm St. and the window didn't have a low sill like the 6th floor of the TSBD. Still, I was able to imagine myself trying fire downward at a moving target in the alley and it seemed it would have been a very difficult shot. I don't think it is a stretch to think Oswald would miss that shot badly.