"Overthinking" (or maybe not?) the Walker attempt

[Lance Payette]

Charles, is your 1/24th scale limo one of these expensive puppies ($350 and $220): https://livecarmodel.com/products/1-24-road-signature-1961-lincoln-x-100-limousine-quick-fix-with-flags-diecast-car-model.html?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=18077476773&gbraid=0AAAAADoejY_6hAEUgmAXenm__jshLs4QY&gclid=Cj0KCQjw_vnQBhCxARIsADcZyxKNOaowPvrZU4E0x86POs6nBC1JUlA76h5k4EqTPTv3dPtPbXYTtzcaAoVvEALw_wcB. I may spring for one and see what I can do with a tiny Mafia guy on the roof of a 1/24th scale Dal-Tex building. 

[Lance Payette]

I'm speculating and I don't pretend to know this for a fact. It's really not important which sights he used. Either would likely aim high at such a short range and not surprising, the bullet struck the bottom of the window frame instead of passing through the open window. Maybe he did adjust for the short range and just fired a poor shot. It's not important to know why his shot went high. We just know that it did and likely saved Walker's life.

There's nothing wrong with speculating about things we don't have definitive evidence for as long as we recognize our speculations aren't evidence. Your problem is you use your speculations as excuses to dismiss the conclusive evidence that Oswald was the assassin. Sure, there's all that forensic evidence that Oswald was the assassin, but you try to cast doubt on that evidence because Oswald made different decisions than you think he should have made such as using his mail order rifle instead of buying an untraceable one locally. You use Oswald's attempt to reconcile with Marina as being inconsistent with someone planning to kill JFK. You disregard the fact he broke his routine by coming to Irving on a Thursday instead of the weekend and that he brought the bag he made at the TSBD with him to smuggle the rifle into the TSBD. I believe that is known as Malice Aforethought which is evidence of premeditation. Maybe he would have abandoned his plan to kill JFK if Marina had agreed to reconcile. We'll never know that. What we have ample evidence of is that he did smuggle his rifle into the TSBD the next morning and used it to kill JFK. None of your speculations about Oswald's mindset does anything to negate that evidence.

OK, I'm bored, so let's examine this. It's not a matter of what I think Oswald "should" have done. It's a matter of what it seems to me that someone of Oswald's intelligence who was thinking rationally would have done; since that isn't what he did, I wonder why he did what he did (or if he actually did it) and do not immediately leap to the typical LN responses of "it's irrelevant" (well, no it's not) or "Oswald was a madman" (well, no, he wasn't). Yes, he made an unusual trip to Irving the evening before the JFKA - highly suspicious. On the other hand, both Ruth and Marina accepted that he was there to try to make peace with Marina, and he made great efforts to do exactly that. The extent of those efforts and his reactions that Marina described are "just a bit" hard to explain if he was really there to get his rifle and shoot JFKA. Neither Ruth nor Marina saw anything like the mysterious paper bag or any conduct by Oswald suggesting he was taking the rifle out of the blanket and wrapping it in the bag. Indeed, as Martin has pointed out, there is no solid evidence that the rifle was even in the garage on 11-21. No one saw him making the bag in the TSBD, which would have been an odd choice anyway, and Frazier neither saw nor heard any evidence of it on the ride to Irving. Then, of course, we have Frazier's and Randle's stubborn insistence that the bag they saw was too short. It may well be that the LN version of events is 100% correct, but to suggest it's free of all doubt goes too far. Moreover, we encounter this at virtually every stage of the JFKA. For some reason, we weren't blessed with a cut-and-dried case that Perry Mason could've wrapped up in an hour.

[Lance Payette]

I am on this, people! I've already lined up my 1/24 scale Mafia gunmen, and it appears there are multiple choices for a 1/24 scale Carlos Marcello. The 1/24 scale Dal-Tex building is going to be larger than my actual house, so we may have to go with a "Potemkin village" Dal-Tex building (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potemkin_village).

[Charles Collins]

Charles, is your 1/24th scale limo one of these expensive puppies ($350 and $220): https://livecarmodel.com/products/1-24-road-signature-1961-lincoln-x-100-limousine-quick-fix-with-flags-diecast-car-model.html?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=18077476773&gbraid=0AAAAADoejY_6hAEUgmAXenm__jshLs4QY&gclid=Cj0KCQjw_vnQBhCxARIsADcZyxKNOaowPvrZU4E0x86POs6nBC1JUlA76h5k4EqTPTv3dPtPbXYTtzcaAoVvEALw_wcB. I may spring for one and see what I can do with a tiny Mafia guy on the roof of a 1/24th scale Dal-Tex building. 

It might be the same. However my box says it was made by Luckydiecast.com. I have had mine a few years now. It wasn’t quite that expensive normally, and I found a steeply discounted vendor price. I don’t remember who it was but it seems like it was some women’s group of some sort. Here’s a photo of the back of the box. I apologize for it being upside down. Something funky seems to be going on with the image hosting site.

[Lance Payette]

It might be the same. However my box says it was made by Luckydiecast.com. I have had mine a few years now. It wasn’t quite that expensive normally, and I found a steeply discounted vendor price. I don’t remember who it was but it seems like it was some women’s group of some sort. Here’s a photo of the back of the box. I apologize for it being upside down. Something funky seems to be going on with the image hosting site.

Yep, both the cars on the other site are made by Luckydiecast of Hong Kong. They make some very cool stuff.

[John Corbett]

I think I determined the 3’ miss distance based on my 3D computer model. I decided to try another approach using my 1/24th scale model of the limo. If we scale the 2’ and 3’ distances to 1/24th scale, they are 1” and 1.5” respectively. I cut 2” and 3” diameter targets and centered them on JFK’s head. The angles are reasonably close to the angles at Z133. Here are some resulting images:


The first image shows the two targets with a clear ruler laid on top of them in order to show their respective diameters.




The second image shows the 2” target centered on JFK’s head. This scales to be a 4’ diameter target.





The third image shows the 3” target centered on JFK’s head. This scales to be a 6’ diameter target.




As can be seen above, the 3” diameter target barely covers the limo and only at a small section of its circumference.

It's hard to tell with the circles covering JFK but I'm estimating you have JFK's head to far inside. With his side against the side of the limo, I estimate the centerline of his head would only be about 9 inches inside that. I base that on my on body which is broader than JFK. I outweigh him by about 70 lbs. My ballpark estimate is the centerline of JFK's head would be at most 2 ft. from the outside edge of the limo.

I think I have that same model car although mine is not stamped Luckydiecast. I can't quite make out what the script is identifying the manufacturer but it is stamped Made in China. I've had mine about 10 years. My experience with model trains tells me manufacturers will often sell or duplicate the molds among themselves and it is not unusual to see that same item produced by two or more companies. It's very easy to change the embossed label. Mine indicates it was manufactured under license number 24048 if that means anything. The jump seats on mine fold down and then can be pushed forward completely out of the way.

[John Corbett]

OK, I'm bored, so let's examine this. It's not a matter of what I think Oswald "should" have done. It's a matter of what it seems to me that someone of Oswald's intelligence who was thinking rationally would have done;

Either way you are guessing and your guesses do not trump real evidence that indicates Oswald was the assassin.

since that isn't what he did, I wonder why he did what he did (or if he actually did it) and do not immediately leap to the typical LN responses of "it's irrelevant" 

Your guesses are irrelevant.

(well, no it's not) or "Oswald was a madman" (well, no, he wasn't). Yes, he made an unusual trip to Irving the evening before the JFKA - highly suspicious.

On the other hand, both Ruth and Marina accepted that he was there to try to make peace with Marina, and he made great efforts to do exactly that. The extent of those efforts and his reactions that Marina described are "just a bit" hard to explain if he was really there to get his rifle and shoot JFKA.

Hard for you. Not hard for people who think real evidence outweighs guesses.

Neither Ruth nor Marina saw anything like the mysterious paper bag or any conduct by Oswald suggesting he was taking the rifle out of the blanket and wrapping it in the bag.

Since you are into guessing, do you guess he would have allowed them to see what he was up to?

Indeed, as Martin has pointed out, there is no solid evidence that the rifle was even in the garage on 11-21.

Now it's my turn to ask the same question you asked in another thread. What evidence would you expect there to be.

No one saw him making the bag in the TSBD,

Which in no way precludes him from having made the bag. Same question as before. Do you think he would have wanted anyone to see what he was doing?

which would have been an odd choice anyway, and Frazier neither saw nor heard any evidence of it on the ride to Irving.

Would he have had any reason to show Frazier his bag?

Then, of course, we have Frazier's and Randle's stubborn insistence that the bag they saw was too short

Oh goody. More guesses by witnesses. Or did either Frazier or Randle actually measure the bag. 

It may well be that the LN version of events is 100% correct,

It is.

but to suggest it's free of all doubt goes too far.

Not really.

Moreover, we encounter this at virtually every stage of the JFKA. For some reason, we weren't blessed with a cut-and-dried case that Perry Mason could've wrapped up in an hour.

At every stage of the JFKA, a CT will dream up some cockamamie excuse to dismiss a piece of rock solid evidence of Oswald's guilt. I've seen this movie countless times over the past 35 years. A CT is presented with compelling evidence of Oswald's guilt and the CT responds with an excuse to disregard that evidence. They do it time and tine again. They never respond with any evidence of their own nor do they even attempt to put together an alternative scenario that takes into account all the available evidence. One would think that given the advantage of 62 years, some CT somewhere would have been able to construct a plausible evidence based scenario that has someone other than Oswald involved in the crime but that has never happened and I have no reason to believe it ever will.