The Shot That Missed

[Denis Pointing]

So according to you I'm a racist, an elitist, a parrot, a clown, a lemming, a sheep (short back & sides, please) and child-molester
At least I don't take a knee to the little prick who killed Tippit and probably shot Kennedy.

 

Did John Iacoletti really call you a "child-molester"? Surely not.

[Dan O'meara]

Dan, I'm going to reply to your questions all together, as I'm not familiar with breaking out quotes like everyone else can. I'll eventually figure it out.

Reactions seen early in the zapruder film
https://sites.google.com/site/earlyzapruderfilmreactions/reactions-seen-early-in-zapruder-film

Some apparent total lack of reaction in people in response to a stimulus was a phenomenon that I saw mentioned in one literature reference, but no further elaboration was made. It may be situational based, so I don’t know the exact answer. I can only speculate for this situation. For the crowds I personally believe that it may be as simple as “what grabs, and holds, your attention at that time”. The visual stimulus intensity of seeing the President and First lady right in front of them (many were trying for direct eye contact and a wave response), might well override an auditory stimulus to a firecracker in the background. Now if the auditory stimulus was perceived as a threat, or a real concern, I suspect that perception would override the visual stimulus and they would react to that by looking around. Net the President and First lady right in front of them visually “grabbed and held their attention at that time” over a perceived non-concerning auditory stimulus.  For others the first shot sound could be perceived as something that was concerning and they reacted. Again, some speculation, but I wouldn’t be surprised that for those in the Presidential limo and the trailing SS car, there was some sense of relaxation starting to set in, the motorcade was nearly complete, the crowds were much thinner, and the visual field ahead of them was less stimulating than what they had just completed. A surprise loud bang for them may have posed a real concern that grabbed their attention and started a voluntary reaction of concern.

Another point that might come into play is that the most difficult location of a sound for your ears to accurately spatially locate (sound localization) is directly behind and high overhead. I suspect that was the case for individuals in the Presidential limo and the trailing SS car. It may have been hard, based on only one, first unexpected quick sharp bang, to determining exactly what direction the sound came from. Harder to tell which way to look. I can’t say for sure but actually Jackies’ and John Connally’s sweeping head reactions first left and then back right look almost like classical sound localization motions from mammals swinging the head back and forth to locate an unknown sound stimulus.

Regarding your comments on Hickey, I think there are two points to consider. 1) This technique does not use any testimony and further obviously does not use any testimony that is not given, or even testimony that is in error or specific details that were even forgotten or assumed inconsequential within all the chaos. 2) The reactions of Hickey you mention are not startle reactions. They are voluntary reactions, and fit the description as being unusual enough to be unusual voluntary motions of concern, and occur within a timeframe other voluntary motions of concern are observed and consistent with a population perception time model.

Looking at the video in the link above, Jackie starts accelerated head turning left at ~Z143.5, before looking back right. (Similar to John Connally's L-R head motion but starts slightly earlier and ends slightly later than his).

Rosemary Willis in the lower video in the link above appeared to begin a quick look away from the Presidential Limo back towards the Texas School Book Depository at ~Z140 as it appeared to both authors independently using that video.

To note, one advantage to using an average (or median) of multiple samples, if possible, is that this can help buffer mistakes made in sampling. If there were a couple of data points that I changed my mind on to use, I could just throw them out. For example if I decided I didn’t want to use JFK and Rosemary Willis data points, I would throw them out and recalculate. If I did that for this case the predicted first shot timing would only shift about 1.5 frames. If those two points were in error, the original result would have been somewhat buffered by the rest of the data with the original result only being off by less than two frames. Yes, some judgement in context is necessary, but even though I would say those two samples may be a little less clear than the others they still were judged relevant enough to include.

Good questions, hope this helps.

Hi Brian,

to be honest you've not really answered the main point I was making concerning the car-full of specially trained Secret Service agents specifically assigned for the protection of the president and the first lady.
I'm aware that your method excludes witness testimony but I assume it doesn't exclude other photographic evidence. Below is a close-up of the Altgens 6 picture focussing on the SS agents. It is beyond doubt that there is a radical and co-ordinated reaction to what we can assume is a gunshot. Three of them are looking backwards, over their shoulders. Nothing in the Z-film shows anything even remotely like this kind of extreme reaction. Just a few head turns made by the occupants of a limo which is the focus of crowds of people on both sides of them. Of course they are going to be turning their heads. But Altgens 6 shows something of a far greater magnitude.



Below is z255 which is thought to be the frame at which the Altgens 6 pic was taken. It is clear that by this time both JFK and JBC have been hit. To the left we can see the front of the follow-up car and, using the Altgens 6 pic and a little imagination, we can visualise the agents on board the follow-up car twisting round, reacting to the sound of a shot.



It must be remembered that the SS agents are visible in the Z-film until z207 (McIntyre, riding the left rear running board is visible until z236. Hill, riding left front running board, is visible until z249.) At no time do any of the agents make a reaction remotely as extreme as the one we see in Altgens 6.
How do your conclusions account for this?
Altgens 6 clearly shows the agents reacting to a shot.
Why doesn't the Z-film show the same thing?
Surely you're not going to suggest that, somehow, the agents didn't recognise the sound of a shot when little Rosemary Willis did or that it took them over 7 seconds to react to the sound of the first shot?

[John Iacoletti]

Did John Iacoletti really call you a "child-molester"? Surely not.

No, of course I didn't.  That's just another empty Chapman claim.  I said that I could call him a child molester -- just like he calls Oswald a "killer" -- but that doesn't make it true.

[Bill Chapman]

No, of course I didn't.  That's just another empty Chapman claim.  I said that I could call him a child molester -- just like he calls Oswald a "killer" -- but that doesn't make it true.

'I said that I could call him a child molester'

Cite that

[Brian Roselle]

Dan, I’m sorry if I didn’t address what you were concerned about earlier. Hopefully I won’t still completely miss something, but if I do it shouldn’t turn any heads.

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.  If Altgens could have snapped an up-the-road still picture on the presidential limo at about z160 he would have caught 5 heads turned looking around. And based on the Croft photo at that time with Connally and Jackie, one might say there could have been some facial expressions of concern at that time.

Now I could take a stab at what might be going on in Altgens, but I should reiterate that the first shot analysis method is based on a reaction time (better described as perception time) model to a surprise stimulus. It will not apply to after the first shot because a first stimulus can be a strong forewarning signal to subsequent stimuli and can radically change (lower) reaction times. So although the method would not be recommended for anything after a first shot, one might expect subsequent reaction times to become somewhat faster because of this dynamic. The early reactions highlighted in the article method match up exceedingly well to the surprise stimulus perception time distribution expected from the general population, that’s how it pegs the first shot triggered at half a second before z133.

But, just for the sake of it, if we play this out and assumed the second shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the second shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the second shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that.

At z255 I’m not sure if many of the SS agents had fully realized that that JFK and Connally were seriously shot (but Clint Hill appeared to be looking towards them and you mentioned him not reacting, and I just don’t know how to explain him to you, maybe one who is not as inclined to react?). In any case, hearing a second report about 1.8 seconds earlier than z255 and quickly after that realizing it as a gunshot might have “gotten and held” many of those agents attention at that time, looking for the source, and as seen in Altgens.  Alternately though, I would guess the attention of Jackie and Nellie was on their husbands, since from z235 to z255 it looked like there was a lot of chaos going on in the presidential limo back seats with two men having just been shot and their wives reacting to their husbands. Perhaps to be expected Kellerman and Greer looked to react a little slower than the wives did by starting their turns backwards around z252ish, but that is also pretty darn close to the time of the Altgens photo.

Net, this quick run through related to Altgens is just that, a quick take. But I don’t see anything that is really inconsistent with explaining the Zapruder frame around the time of the Altgens photo, and Altgens being primarily related to the second shot rather than the first shot that happened earlier up the road.

[Dan O'meara]

Dan, I’m sorry if I didn’t address what you were concerned about earlier. Hopefully I won’t still completely miss something, but if I do it shouldn’t turn any heads.

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.  If Altgens could have snapped an up-the-road still picture on the presidential limo at about z160 he would have caught 5 heads turned looking around. And based on the Croft photo at that time with Connally and Jackie, one might say there could have been some facial expressions of concern at that time.

Now I could take a stab at what might be going on in Altgens, but I should reiterate that the first shot analysis method is based on a reaction time (better described as perception time) model to a surprise stimulus. It will not apply to after the first shot because a first stimulus can be a strong forewarning signal to subsequent stimuli and can radically change (lower) reaction times. So although the method would not be recommended for anything after a first shot, one might expect subsequent reaction times to become somewhat faster because of this dynamic. The early reactions highlighted in the article method match up exceedingly well to the surprise stimulus perception time distribution expected from the general population, that’s how it pegs the first shot triggered at half a second before z133.

But, just for the sake of it, if we play this out and assumed the second shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the second shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the second shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that.

At z255 I’m not sure if many of the SS agents had fully realized that that JFK and Connally were seriously shot (but Clint Hill appeared to be looking towards them and you mentioned him not reacting, and I just don’t know how to explain him to you, maybe one who is not as inclined to react?). In any case, hearing a second report about 1.8 seconds earlier than z255 and quickly after that realizing it as a gunshot might have “gotten and held” many of those agents attention at that time, looking for the source, and as seen in Altgens.  Alternately though, I would guess the attention of Jackie and Nellie was on their husbands, since from z235 to z255 it looked like there was a lot of chaos going on in the presidential limo back seats with two men having just been shot and their wives reacting to their husbands. Perhaps to be expected Kellerman and Greer looked to react a little slower than the wives did by starting their turns backwards around z252ish, but that is also pretty darn close to the time of the Altgens photo.

Net, this quick run through related to Altgens is just that, a quick take. But I don’t see anything that is really inconsistent with explaining the Zapruder frame around the time of the Altgens photo, and Altgens being primarily related to the second shot rather than the first shot that happened earlier up the road.

Hi Brian,

I must apologise as I don't seem to have clarified what I'm driving at.
The Altgens 6 pic below, in conjunction with the Z-film, utterly refutes your notion of a first shot before z133:



I completely agree with your analysis of the gunshot reactions we are seeing in Altgens 6:

"...the [Altgens 6] shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the [Altgens 6] shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the [Altgens 6]shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that."

This seems completely reasonable to me. The three agents who are twisting round, all looking towards the TSBD, have been captured in the Altgens 6 pic reacting to the sound of a shot that occurred less than two seconds before the pic was taken.

The point you seem to be missing is that this is exactly the reaction we should expect to see for a shot before z133. Why aren't the SS agents reacting to the sound of a shot before z133 in exactly the way we see them reacting in Altgens 6 (@ z255)?

The answer to this question is obvious - there was no sound of a gunshot for them to react to before z223.
The SS agents reacted to the first shot (to assume they somehow missed the first shot is silly) and the Altgens 6 pic captures this moment. There was no shot as early as z133. The lack of reaction of the SS agents we can see in the Z-film until z207 clearly demonstrates this.


I was going to let it go at that but you made a comment in your post that I find so bizarre I just couldn't let it go:

I agree with you that there are agents in Altgens reacting to gunshot sounds.

But I think there were body motions in the early Z film comparable, if not greater in magnitude, to the agents seen in Altgens.

You are obviously aware that everyone here has instant access to the Z-film. Your claim that there were body motions "comparable, if not greater in magnitude" than the agents seen in Altgens 6 is clearly a nonsensical statement. There is absolutely nothing in the Z-film that comes even close to the reactions of the three agents seen in the Altgens 6 twisting around, all heads turned in the direction of the TSBD. The most extreme movement is John Connally's quick head turn and this is nothing compared to the contortions of the SS agents. How you can even suggest this is baffling.

[Charles Collins]

Hi Brian,

I must apologise as I don't seem to have clarified what I'm driving at.
The Altgens 6 pic below, in conjunction with the Z-film, utterly refutes your notion of a first shot before z133:



I completely agree with your analysis of the gunshot reactions we are seeing in Altgens 6:

"...the [Altgens 6] shot was triggered near z219, the muzzle blast would arrive at the limos at about z222.4.  If at that point we allow 0.6 seconds for SS follow up limo agents to start voluntary reactions thereafter (this might be a ballpark number to plug in for a mid-level awareness stimulus reaction), we might expect reactions showing in the SS car starting around z233 if reacting primarily after the [Altgens 6] shot. It would not be surprising to not see any reactions fully developed at z236. Also It would seem that this would allow enough time for some agents, if they chose to, to turn and be in the position captured at Altgens z255 (about 1.8 seconds after hearing the [Altgens 6]shot ) if they didn’t already start looking around a little sooner than that."

This seems completely reasonable to me. The three agents who are twisting round, all looking towards the TSBD, have been captured in the Altgens 6 pic reacting to the sound of a shot that occurred less than two seconds before the pic was taken.

The point you seem to be missing is that this is exactly the reaction we should expect to see for a shot before z133. Why aren't the SS agents reacting to the sound of a shot before z133 in exactly the way we see them reacting in Altgens 6 (@ z255)?

The answer to this question is obvious - there was no sound of a gunshot for them to react to before z223.
The SS agents reacted to the first shot (to assume they somehow missed the first shot is silly) and the Altgens 6 pic captures this moment. There was no shot as early as z133. The lack of reaction of the SS agents we can see in the Z-film until z207 clearly demonstrates this.


I was going to let it go at that but you made a comment in your post that I find so bizarre I just couldn't let it go:

You are obviously aware that everyone here has instant access to the Z-film. Your claim that there were body motions "comparable, if not greater in magnitude" than the agents seen in Altgens 6 is clearly a nonsensical statement. There is absolutely nothing in the Z-film that comes even close to the reactions of the three agents seen in the Altgens 6 twisting around, all heads turned in the direction of the TSBD. The most extreme movement is John Connally's quick head turn and this is nothing compared to the contortions of the SS agents. How you can even suggest this is baffling.

Dan, how many of the witnesses said they initially thought the first one was a backfire or firecracker or something like that? I don’t know the actual count, but it was a large percentage. Do you really believe that the SS Agents were somehow immune to this phenomenon? We can clearly see one immediately looking in the vicinity of the limo’s tires. It would appear that he thought it was a tire blowout. What we cannot discern from the photographic record is what the eyes of the SS Agents are doing during the same time that the limo occupants are simultaneously turning their heads and looking around with concerned expressions like they are trying to figure out what that loud noise they just heard was. The SS Agents were likely looking for visual signs of the source or results of the loud noise. They can do this with just movements of their eyes and small movements of their heads. I know what their reports say about “immediately” doing this or that. But I believe that none of them were likely to come out and explicitly say that they thought the first noise was something other than a gunshot, and that that is why they didn’t react immediately after hearing it. Admitting something like that on their reports would tend to make them look incompetent and lackadaisical. I believe that they reported actions that would tend to make them look good, and stuck to their stories. How could they have anticipated that the Zapruder film would show that their reports were inaccurate?