The First Shot

[Zeon Mason]

But Oswald could have fired earlier as the car passed under the tree as the car was never really obscured from view.


We don't really know that he wouldn't have fired through a few leaves.  But he could have tracked JFK while he passed under the tree branches and fired as soon as he was clear.  That would have been here:



when JFK had just passed the lamp post and had not yet reached the Thornton sign.  That is between z190 and z200.
The difference in downward angle is not much - about three degrees, which is within the error range of the estimates of the angles that JFK was leaning forward from the horizontal as he travelled down Elm St. based in the Croft photo and his subsequent movements.  [Note: The FBI measured downward angles at z222 to be 20°23' and at z207 as 21°50' a difference of 1°27' over 15 frames. Extrapolating that another 15 frames back to z192 the downward horizontal angle would be 23°17', a difference of 2°54'.] See: CE884, 17H902

Your LN 3 shot, 3 hits, theory at least makes more sense than one where the TSBD shooter (whomever  he was ) would in a sudden panic , stand up and attempt an early unaimed shot FAR off enough to miss the entire right SIDE of the limo( as per the photo of the LOS perspective from the 6th floor SN window that you previously posted).

At Z190, I do see that JFKs back and neck angle may be more vertical relative to the horizontal line of the limo, as he might have moved his upper back forward thus not leaning so much back in the seat as he was at Z224. But I’d like to see an experiment with dummies to test out the shot and see if it aligns better than the Z224 shot (2003) which by the FAILED, as the bullet exited well below the throat wound level.

That Z190 approx frame coincides (imo) with Harold Norman’s description seeing the president with his right hand up trying to brush his hair when Norman heard the 1st shot. Then the president slumps as Norman describes. jFK slump leftward is maybe enough to theoretically have allowed a Z270 shot that only hit JC.

I have criticized your theory because of the lack of reactions by SS agents and only the Willis girl slowing down. But since I’ve  given some logical reasons why Clint Hill may have missed hearing a 1st shot then I suppose it’s possible that Willis could be more sensitive to a 170 db rifle shot due to not having been desensitized to sudden loud noise of continuous motorcycle backfires as weed the SS agents.

[Andrew Mason]

It would be quite odd if the limo didn't slow down when making a 110-degree turn, even from the speed they were traveling at through the downtown area.

There are other films showing the turn: the Towner, Hughes and Dorman films. They show a fairly steady speed.  There is also the Secret Service reenactment.

[John Corbett]

After reading from Jacket Kennedy’s WC testimony, she states she was looking LEFT and then after hearing noises  , she turned RIGHT and that’s when she saw JFK with a “quizzical look”  and his LEFT hand was up

Which means, like Clint Hill, she didn't hear the first shot.

Damn, those motorcycles must have been loud.

[John Corbett]

Your LN 3 shot, 3 hits, theory at least makes more sense than one where the TSBD shooter (whomever  he was ) would in a sudden panic , stand up and attempt an early unaimed shot FAR off enough to miss the entire right SIDE of the limo( as per the photo of the LOS perspective from the 6th floor SN window that you previously posted).

At Z190, I do see that JFKs back and neck angle may be more vertical relative to the horizontal line of the limo, as he might have moved his upper back forward thus not leaning so much back in the seat as he was at Z224. But I’d like to see an experiment with dummies to test out the shot and see if it aligns better than the Z224 shot (2003) which by the FAILED, as the bullet exited well below the throat wound level.

That Z190 approx frame coincides (imo) with Harold Norman’s description seeing the president with his right hand up trying to brush his hair when Norman heard the 1st shot. Then the president slumps as Norman describes. jFK slump leftward is maybe enough to theoretically have allowed a Z270 shot that only hit JC.

I have criticized your theory because of the lack of reactions by SS agents and only the Willis girl slowing down. But since I’ve  given some logical reasons why Clint Hill may have missed hearing a 1st shot then I suppose it’s possible that Willis could be more sensitive to a 170 db rifle shot due to not having been desensitized to sudden loud noise of continuous motorcycle backfires as weed the SS agents.

Why would you assume Oswald fired the first shot in a sudden panic? He had ample time to study the layout. Why couldn't he have decided ahead of time, that he could probably get off a shot after the limo turned onto Elm and maybe 2 or 3 more after the limo cleared the tree. That first shot was the most difficult one but he had a better chance of scoring a hit than if he didn't take that shot.

He could have had the same mindset of hockey or soccer players. They know that the more shots on goal you take, the greater your chances of getting one past the goalie. Even if he missed that first shot, he would still have the chance to take the later shots. I wouldn't second guess his choices given that he succeeded in what he was trying to do.

[Andrew Mason]

Why would you assume Oswald fired the first shot in a sudden panic? He had ample time to study the layout. Why couldn't he have decided ahead of time, that he could probably get off a shot after the limo turned onto Elm and maybe 2 or 3 more after the limo cleared the tree. That first shot was the most difficult one but he had a better chance of scoring a hit than if he didn't take that shot.

He could have had the same mindset of hockey or soccer players. They know that the more shots on goal you take, the greater your chances of getting one past the goalie. Even if he missed that first shot, he would still have the chance to take the later shots. I wouldn't second guess his choices given that he succeeded in what he was trying to do.

He only had four bullets though. He could not afford to waste a shot. Besides, his marine training would have taught him to use an ambush approach and wait until the target is moving away in the direction of the sight line.  He succeeded because he didn’t try an early shot.

[John Corbett]

He only had four bullets though. He could not afford to waste a shot. Besides, his marine training would have taught him to use an ambush approach and wait until the target is moving away in the direction of the sight line.  He succeeded because he didn’t try an early shot.

He wasn't wasting a shot. He was giving himself an extra chance. Had he waited, he would have had to wait until the limo cleared the tree before he used his four rounds. Apparently, Oswald calculated that an early shot before the limo went under the tree was a better chance than what a fourth shot after the limo went past the tree. Given the results, he calculated correctly. As it turned out, his fourth shot was unnecessary. He only had to fire two shots after the limo cleared the tree. Again I ask, why are you second guessing his successful decisions?

[Royell Storing]

Why would you assume Oswald fired the first shot in a sudden panic? He had ample time to study the layout. Why couldn't he have decided ahead of time, that he could probably get off a shot after the limo turned onto Elm and maybe 2 or 3 more after the limo cleared the tree. That first shot was the most difficult one but he had a better chance of scoring a hit than if he didn't take that shot.

He could have had the same mindset of hockey or soccer players. They know that the more shots on goal you take, the greater your chances of getting one past the goalie. Even if he missed that first shot, he would still have the chance to take the later shots. I wouldn't second guess his choices given that he succeeded in what he was trying to do.

   What you are describing above is not a "plan". Certainly not a "plan" by anyone with military training such as Oswald. This stuff about a shooter firing a rifle almost straight down through a 1/2 open window and then sitting down and firing 2 more shots with a bolt action rifle is not reasonable when applied to Oswald. Max Holland started this rubbish and for whatever reason some of you have bought into it. There is No Evidence that Oswald or anyone else did this cockamamie maneuver.
   And if the shooter was serious about this "more shots on goal" hooey, he would Never have used a bolt action rifle to begin with. ALL of this is totally "out there"!