The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

The Z-film is absolutely unequivocal about the shot at z270.
It does not happen.
This is unequivocally shown in the Z-film.

If it was unequivocal you would not have to explain:

1. why we see JBC move the way he does beginning at z272.  What causes him to move forward from z272 - z280 before he falls back onto Nellie?  You seem to be ignoring that. 
2. why we see the hand movement between z271-272.  What causes the appearance of the hand and hat to change between z271 and z272?  You say that change is not meaningful. Why?  How is the hand going to move if the arm is pressed against the chest with the dorsal side of the wrist facing into the chest and the elbow pressed into the seat? 
3. why the sunvisor moves from z271-272.  What causes the sunvisor over Greer to move forward from z271-272?  The wind is certainly not moving it forward.  Granted it is a small movement but it is visible.
4. why the JFK hair movement occurs at z273-276. What causes JFK's hair to fly up from z273 to z276, just as Hickey described? Hickey said the second shot did not appear to hit JFK but just caused his hair to fly up.
5. why the zfilm shows Greer turning rearward around z279-z280 if nothing had just happened. And perhaps you could explain why Greer said he turned immediately after the second shot if it was unequivocally not the case.

That his wrist/hand does not move in any meaningful way demonstrates, unequivocally, a bullet has not shattered JBC's radius forcefully enough to leave fragments in the wrist and have a fragment blow through the wrist and exit near the crease of the wrist. There can be no doubt whatsoever that such a forceful blow would result in an obvious movement, it's basic physics - Newton's laws of motion, conservation of momentum etc.

If that really was the case, you will no doubt be able to explain, using physics, the following.
 
1.  How much force does a partially spent bullet apply to the radius when it strikes the radius on an angle and fragments continue moving forward striking the windshield with enough force to crack the windshield, dent the metal frame and at least one travel 150 feet farther to strike the curb near Tague and deflect up and cut his cheek.
2. How much force is required to move a visible amount an arm that is pinned between JBC's chest and seat back?
3. What determines a visible amount of movement in the zfilm?

If you cannot show unequivocally that such movement would be visible in the zfilm, then it is not unequivocal.

I ask anyone reading this post to closely study the images below and ask themselves if it is possible, even given the most fantastical assumptions, that these images represent a bullet exploding out of JBC's chest and shattering his radius leaving fragments embedded in his wrist.

I could use the same kind of argument to "prove" that there is no SBT shot at z223 because the laws of physics do not permit the bullet, after having exploded out of JBC's chest, to shatter his radius and not deflect away from the point of contact.  The bullet would have to strike the radius and deflect leftward but the impact was on the back of the wrist on the distal side of the radius (the side nearest the ulna bone).  The main difference is that you are arguing about the magnitude of the force of impact.  I am saying that the direction of the force is wrong at z223.  In your case, you have yet to show that the magnitude of the force would be great enough to move the wrist.  In my case, it is a physical principle that is at issue:  a bullet deflects away from, not toward, the point of contact.

If you would like a bit of help to get you started:

• Speed of bullet exiting chest:  400 m/sec. (original speed at impact on back: 560 m/sec or 1825 fps (muzzle speed of 2100 less 275 fps).
• Speed of bullet exiting wrist after fracturing radius: 200 m/sec. 
• Momentum transferred to wrist = mΔv = .01 x 200 = 2 kg m/sec = 2 N. sec. 

Therefore, a contrary force of 20 Newtons applied for 1/10th of a second will stop that momentum. A 20 N force is the weight of 2 kg or 5 pounds. I would suggest that the force applied to the arm by the pinning of the arm between the seat back and the chest is at least 5 pounds. The effect of the arm being pressed to the chest will be that the impact on the chest and wrist will cause the whole upper body to move, which is what we see from z271-278 until Nellie pulls JBC back on top of her.

[Dan O'meara]

If it was unequivocal you would not have to explain:

1. why we see JBC move the way he does beginning at z272.  What causes him to move forward from z272 - z280 before he falls back onto Nellie?  You seem to be ignoring that. 

I wanted to move on to something else but, out of interest, let's deal with your so-called objections one by one.
I find this one quite interesting as you've mentioned it before and I have dealt with it although you appear to have ignored me.
You say that from z272 - z280 JBC is moving forward before he collapses backwards into Nellie's arms. You've described this as "sailing forward".
Let's take a fixed point. For arguments sake let's say the outer part of Jackie's left arm (there is some kind of object on the inside of the limo near Jackie's arm we could use, but it doesn't really matter as what I'm going to point out is very obvious). As we watch the Z-film roll in the clip below we can see the gap between JBC and whatever fixed point we use increases from frame to frame indicating JBC is moving backwards during these frames and not forwards as you insist:



In frames z272-280 JBC is clearly moving backwards but you keep insisting he is moving forwards. I'm interested to hear your explanation for this observation.

[Andrew Mason]

I wanted to move on to something else but, out of interest, let's deal with your so-called objections one by one.
I find this one quite interesting as you've mentioned it before and I have dealt with it although you appear to have ignored me.
You say that from z272 - z280 JBC is moving forward before he collapses backwards into Nellie's arms. You've described this as "sailing forward".
Let's take a fixed point. For arguments sake let's say the outer part of Jackie's left arm (there is some kind of object on the inside of the limo near Jackie's arm we could use, but it doesn't really matter as what I'm going to point out is very obvious). As we watch the Z-film roll in the clip below we can see the gap between JBC and whatever fixed point we use increases from frame to frame indicating JBC is moving backwards during these frames and not forwards as you insist:


In frames z272-280 JBC is clearly moving backwards but you keep insisting he is moving forwards. I'm interested to hear your explanation for this observation.

By "forward" I mean in the direction the car is moving. 

The first part of this movement is z271-278 and JBC moves toward the front of the car and maybe a bit toward his back (car left) but not very much. It is sudden uniform motion, at least until z277 as you can see his position relative to the car and other occupants is the only position that changes.  You can see that the height of his head relative to everything in the car remains the same. 

Then in the second part (after 2 sec. pause at z278 until z287) he falls back onto Nellie and you can see his head go down:

[Andrew Mason]

Doesn't Connally fall away from the car rail (and towards Nellie) before Z271?

Yes he does.  Up to about z267 he is leaning to the car right as he is turned toward the rear.

If Connally is just "sailing forward", then one wouldn't expect to see increasing amounts of his front and hat. Or the top of his head to rise.

Where do you see that from z271 to z278?:

The following Muchmore frames shows just Connally's head moving towards Nellie. His right shoulder is stable. So by Z285, Connally's torso has fallen back towards Nellie; just his head falls towards her after that.

He falls backward from z278 to z285 onto Nellie.  That's what my last GIF showed.  It is the forward movement from z271-278 that is odd.

[Dan O'meara]

By "forward" I mean in the direction the car is moving. 

Really? So everybody is "sailing forward" because they're all moving in the same direction as the limo?
Brilliant stuff.
This is somehow supposed to be refuting the unequivocal evidence of no shot at z271?
You wrote for your first big point:

"What causes him to move forward from z272 - z280 before he falls back onto Nellie?"

Look at this clip Jerry posted. In it Nellie appears to move from one side of the metal strut to the other. It's not because she's moving, it's because the relative positions of everything in the limo is changing as the limo approaches Zapruder's position. This is not an optical illusion, it's a really basic understanding of how positions change with a changing perspective:



There is no "sailing forward" or "sailing backwards".
JBC crumples to his right after being shot, he straightens up slightly and falls back into Nellie's lap.
That's it.
How you imagine this is unusual or somehow contradicts the clear evidence that no shot occurs at 271 is in your mind only.
So let's move on to the next big point that needs explaining:

"2. why we see the hand movement between z271-272.  What causes the appearance of the hand and hat to change between z271 and z272?"

I made this Gif to highlight what nonsense you are talking. It comprises of z271 and z272:



Z271 is slightly blurred while z272 is much clearer.
This is what is causing "the appearance of the hand and hat to change".
In fact, there is no change as we can see. And remember, this is the moment the bullet is exploding out of JBC's chest and shattering his wrist. Clear evidence no such shot is taking place.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The first shot occurs when JFK is approx 10 feet (ie approx 10 frames) before Z133.

The first shot hits the traffic signal or the pipe supporting the signal, then the lead bullet hits the road behind the limo, & two copper jacket fragments end up on the floor of the limo, one of the fragments glancing JFK's head along the way (ie JFK was hit by all three shots).

There are three possible scenarios for the trajectory of the first shot. 
(1) The bullet might have gone throo the signal back-plate (making a long hole), & then ricocheted off the side of the box-frame of the signal.
(2) Or the bullet might have hit the 2 inch pipe holding the traffic signal, &/or one of the two guy rods (each say ¾ inch solid steel), &/or the guy rod attachment collar (solid steel). 
(3) Or the bullet might have hit the pipe or rods or collar & then ricocheted off the signal box-frame.

The CIA drive-past footages showing Oswald's view from the 6th floor window suggest that scenarios (2) or (3) are the more likely, based on the position of the limo being a little south of the center of the center lane.  The guy rod attachment collar would then be on a sight line to JFK's neck.  Or if the JFK actor had been sitting on a slightly raised seat (as did JFK) then the attachment collar would of course be on a sight line to JFK's body a little below the neck. 

Scenario (1) would require the limo to be almost hard up to the southern edge of the center lane, ie the limo would need to be say 24 inches further south than in (2), ie 24 inches further left as viewed by Oswald.

[Dan O'meara]

The first shot occurs when JFK is approx 10 feet (ie approx 10 frames) before Z133.

The first shot hits the traffic signal or the pipe supporting the signal, then the lead bullet hits the road behind the limo, & two copper jacket fragments end up on the floor of the limo, one of the fragments glancing JFK's head along the way (ie JFK was hit by all three shots).

There are three possible scenarios for the trajectory of the first shot. 
(1) The bullet might have gone throo the signal back-plate (making a long hole), & then ricocheted off the side of the box-frame of the signal.
(2) Or the bullet might have hit the 2 inch pipe holding the traffic signal, &/or one of the two guy rods (each say ¾ inch solid steel), &/or the guy rod attachment collar (solid steel). 
(3) Or the bullet might have hit the pipe or rods or collar & then ricocheted off the signal box-frame.

The CIA drive-past footages showing Oswald's view from the 6th floor window suggest that scenarios (2) or (3) are the more likely, based on the position of the limo being a little south of the center of the center lane.  The guy rod attachment collar would then be on a sight line to JFK's neck.  Or if the JFK actor had been sitting on a slightly raised seat (as did JFK) then the attachment collar would of course be on a sight line to JFK's body a little below the neck. 

Scenario (1) would require the limo to be almost hard up to the southern edge of the center lane, ie the limo would need to be say 24 inches further south than in (2), ie 24 inches further left as viewed by Oswald.

Hi Marjan,

It's obvious you've not read through this thread before posting.
The first shot is described as being a very loud, explosive noise. In Altgens 6 we see three SS agents turned around looking over their right shoulders towards the TSBD. At least two of these agents describe reacting 'immediately' to this very loud noise.
In the Z-film we see that none of the agents making the turn we see in Altgens 6 and we see them until z207.
If the shot happens at z133 it means the agents have not reacted to the first shot for over 4 seconds.
How can you explain that?
Please go back to the beginning of this thread and read a few pages to get an idea of what's going on here.
Thank you.
(nice avatar by the way)