Colors of Blue and Gold

[Jon Banks]

The problem remains that it’s still unlikely that Ukraine wins the war despite all the help they’ve been given.

When they force the Russians out of their country, they'll have won the war. With all the new equipment they have been getting and the desperate state of the Russia army it is most certainly possible to send Putin packing.

That is magical thinking. Even the commander of NATO disagrees with the assumption that Russia’s military has been crippled by the war. He testified to the US congress recently that Russia’s military is larger now than before the 2022 invasion. Russian forces are dug-in for a long occupation of Ukraine.

We can hope for Ukraine to win but the question remains, how much time do they have before their backers need to change course? I don’t think it’s realistic to assume that a stalemate would be tolerated long-term.

You seem to be arguing that Ukraine should just give up a part of their country and award Putin for his aggression and many war crimes. Do you think rewarding aggressors is a good thing?

The consequences of every war include potentially losing one’s territory. Why should Ukraine be exempt from the laws of war? “Might makes right”

If you disagree, should the US give up parts of our territory that was taken by force? Potentially, Russia could also lose territory in this war as Ukraine is increasing their cross-border attacks on Russia.

I don’t see Russia being forced out of Ukraine without direct intervention from NATO countries.

[Martin Weidmann]

That is magical thinking. Even the commander of NATO disagrees with the assumption that Russia’s military has been crippled by the war. He testified to the US congress recently that Russia’s military is larger now than before the 2022 invasion. Russian forces are dug-in for a long occupation of Ukraine.

We can hope for Ukraine to win but the question remains, how much time do they have before their backers need to change course? I don’t think it’s realistic to assume that a stalemate would be tolerated long-term.

The consequences of every war include potentially losing one’s territory. Why should Ukraine be exempt from the laws of war? “Might makes right”

If you disagree, should the US give up parts of our territory that was taken by force? Potentially, Russia could also lose territory in this war as Ukraine is increasing their cross-border attacks on Russia.

I don’t see Russia being forced out of Ukraine without direct intervention from NATO countries.

So, you are indeed arguing that Ukraine should surrender part of it's country and thus award aggression and war crimes, which could be an inspiration for other dictators to play the same game. Wow!


Even the commander of NATO disagrees

He can disagree all he wants but the facts are that all we see from Russia is drones and missisle attacks, a withdrawl from ground troops in key locations, officers complaining about not getting enough supplies and the Wagner group pulling out all together.

[Jon Banks]

So, you are indeed arguing that Ukraine should surrender part of it's country and thus award aggression and war crimes, which could be an inspiration for other dictators to play the same game. Wow!

Let's unpack what you're saying.

Since invading Ukraine:

- Russia has become a complete pariah state
- Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world
- Russia has lost somewhere between 60,000 and 150,000 troops (depending on which estimates you believe) in just over a year of war
- $500 million in Russian assets remain frozen in Western banks
- Russia is forced to sell their oil at a huge discount to India and China to make up for the loss of the European market

In return, Russia has gained a slither of territory in Ukraine that will be uninhabitable for at least a decade if not longer.

It has worked out so poorly for Russia that one can only assume that it's not going the way Putin expected his invasion of Ukraine to play out.

What world leader in their right mind (dictator or not) is looking at Russia's ongoing quagmire in Ukraine as a good example to follow? This is looking more like Russia's Vietnam.


You care about lines on a map. I care about preserving life. In my opinion, it won't be the end of the world for Ukraine (or anyone else) if they never recover most of the territory that has been taken by Russia. Most of the Ukrainians who lived in the region near the frontlines have already left and wont return any time soon...

He can disagree all he wants but the facts are that all we see from Russia is drones and missisle attacks, a withdrawl from ground troops in key locations, officers complaining about not getting enough supplies and the Wagner group pulling out all together.

Weird how you omitted the fact that Ukrainian forces retreated from Bakhmut two weeks ago after a brutal nine month battle.

With that said, I don't think Russia can capture the entire country of Ukraine but I believe they have enough manpower and supplies to occupy the areas of Ukraine under their control indefinitely.

Ukraine's military is fighting courageously but it simply isn't enough to overcome Russia's inherent advantages in a long war of attrition.

[Martin Weidmann]

Let's unpack what you're saying.

Since invading Ukraine:

- Russia has become a complete pariah state
- Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world
- Russia has lost somewhere between 60,000 and 150,000 troops (depending on which estimates you believe) in just over a year of war
- $500 million in Russian assets remain frozen in Western banks
- Russia is forced to sell their oil at a huge discount to India and China to make up for the loss of the European market

In return, Russia has gained a slither of territory in Ukraine that will be uninhabitable for at least a decade if not longer.

It has worked out so poorly for Russia that one can only assume that it's not going the way Putin expected his invasion of Ukraine to play out.

What world leader in their right mind (dictator or not) is looking at Russia's ongoing quagmire in Ukraine as a good example to follow? This is looking more like Russia's Vietnam.


You care about lines on a map. I care about preserving life. In my opinion, it won't be the end of the world for Ukraine (or anyone else) if they never recover most of the territory that has been taken by Russia. Most of the Ukrainians who lived in the region near the frontlines have already left and wont return any time soon...

Weird how you omitted the fact that Ukrainian forces retreated from Bakhmut two weeks ago after a brutal nine month battle.

With that said, I don't think Russia can capture the entire country of Ukraine but I believe they have enough manpower and supplies to occupy the areas of Ukraine under their control indefinitely.

Ukraine's military is fighting courageously but it simply isn't enough to overcome Russia's inherent advantages in a long war of attrition.

You care about lines on a map.

No I care about people and their right to live where they want to live. The Russians that live in Ukraine are free to leave and go to Russia if they want to. On the other hand, the Ukrainians who live in the same area can not make such a choice freely if Russia occupies that part of the country permanently. They will be forced out of their homes and made to live somewhere else, where they don't want to be. That's the difference.

How would you feel if some of the Northern States suddenly decide they want to belong to Canada and anybody who doesn't like that can leave, would that be ok with you?

So it's not about lines on a map. That's just a silly oversimplification of the worst kind.

I care about preserving life.

No you don't, because promoting a surrender of parts of Ukraine to an aggressor will only provoke a continuation of the guerilla war that already exists. Going along with that will be suppression of the native people who will be forced to become Russian against their will (as happened in Crimea). The people living in the occupied area who want nothing to do with Russia will continue fighting despite any agreement. More lives will be lost and it will go on for decades.

Surrending parts of Ukraine to Russia to save a few bucks will send all the wrong signals.


Since invading Ukraine:

- Russia has become a complete pariah state
- Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world
- Russia has lost somewhere between 60,000 and 150,000 troops (depending on which estimates you believe) in just over a year of war
- $500 million in Russian assets remain frozen in Western banks
- Russia is forced to sell their oil at a huge discount to India and China to make up for the loss of the European market

In return, Russia has gained a slither of territory in Ukraine that will be uninhabitable for at least a decade if not longer.

It has worked out so poorly for Russia that one can only assume that it's not going the way Putin expected his invasion of Ukraine to play out.

So, why try to reach a settlement that will basically give Putin what he wants and provoke a continued guerilla war? He already has a massive open wound. Why not give him the option to heal that wound by getting out of Ukraine and never come back?

[Jon Banks]

No I care about people and their right to live where they want to live. The Russians that live in Ukraine are free to leave and go to Russia if they want to. On the other hand, the Ukrainians who live in the same area can not make such a choice freely if Russia occupies that part of the country permanently. They will be forced out of their homes and made to live somewhere else, where they don't want to be. That's the difference.

Maybe you didn’t care when millions of refugees fleeing wars in the Middle East and Africa came to Europe over the past decade but refugees and displaced people are a consequence of war.

Ending wars is the best solution. Prolonging wars only extends the suffering for civilians affected by wars.

As for Ukraine’s war, Russia has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any other country. Why?

Maybe because most of the people in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, politically align closer to Russia than their own government.

It’s complicated but prior to the 2022 invasion, eastern Ukrainians typically preferred political parties that aligned with Russia. So it shouldn’t be surprising that with the fighting mostly happening in was Ukraine, many of the refugees are going to Russia.

I assume that you don’t care as much for ethnic Russians in Ukraine or pro-Russian Ukrainians but the war is mostly being fought in the parts of Ukraine where they have lived. There’s no broad local opposition to Russian forces in that region of Ukraine. On the contrary, Ukrainian forces distrust eastern Ukrainians for the reasons I described above.

Why war-torn east Ukraine votes for pro-Russian parties
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-war-torn-east-ukraine-votes-for-pro-russian-parties/

Ukrainians in Russia align with Moscow but lament refugee camps
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/17/ukrainians-in-russia-blame-european-governments-for-ongoing-war

[Martin Weidmann]

Maybe you didn’t care when millions of refugees fleeing wars in the Middle East and Africa came to Europe over the past decade but refugees and displaced people are a consequence of war.

Ending wars is the best solution. Prolonging wars only extends the suffering for civilians affected by wars.

As for Ukraine’s war, Russia has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than any other country. Why?

Maybe because most of the people in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, politically align closer to Russia than their own government.

It’s complicated but prior to the 2022 invasion, eastern Ukrainians typically preferred political parties that aligned with Russia. So it shouldn’t be surprising that with the fighting mostly happening in was Ukraine, many of the refugees are going to Russia.

I assume that you don’t care as much for ethnic Russians in Ukraine or pro-Russian Ukrainians but the war is mostly being fought in the parts of Ukraine where they have lived. There’s no broad local opposition to Russian forces in that region of Ukraine. On the contrary, Ukrainian forces distrust eastern Ukrainians for the reasons I described above.

Why war-torn east Ukraine votes for pro-Russian parties
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-war-torn-east-ukraine-votes-for-pro-russian-parties/

Ukrainians in Russia align with Moscow but lament refugee camps
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/17/ukrainians-in-russia-blame-european-governments-for-ongoing-war

Are you still claiming not to be pro-Russia? Could have fooled me.....

The mere fact that most of the countries in the world have turned against Russia should really tell you that you are backing the wrong horse.


Ending wars is the best solution. Prolonging wars only extends the suffering for civilians affected by wars.

Agreed, but this war will not be ending as long as Russia occupies parts of Ukraine.


I assume that you don’t care as much for ethnic Russians in Ukraine or pro-Russian Ukrainians but the war is mostly being fought in the parts of Ukraine where they have lived.

Nobody was forcing the ethnic Russians  and/or pro-Russian Ukrainians to stay in Ukraine. If they didn't want to be part of Ukraine all they had to do was move to Russia. 

There’s no broad local opposition to Russian forces in that region of Ukraine.

Utter BS

[Jon Banks]

The mere fact that most of the countries in the world have turned against Russia should really tell you that you are backing the wrong horse.

I'm not backing either side in this war. I just have a more nuanced view of the war (and how the US should respond to it) than you and most Liberals do.

Most Liberals in the US and Europe view this war as "good vs evil"/"black and white". I see mostly gray and I don't apply the binary framework of good vs evil. There are good and bad elements on all sides in this war.

The fact that you think my neutrality means I support Russia suggests that the binary framework describes your view. That's fine with me. I'm only trying to help you better understand my point of view.

In my opinion, the US should be pushing for a ceasefire and avoiding doing things that could potentially lead to a major escalation or expansion of the war to other countries. Keep the fire contined to Ukraine and Russia. The US shouldn't get distracted from other important issues like Climate Change and managing our geopolitical competition with China.

Ending wars is the best solution. Prolonging wars only extends the suffering for civilians affected by wars.

Agreed, but this war will not be ending as long as Russia occupies parts of Ukraine.

The Korean war never officially ended. Sometimes countries just stop shooting at each other and it becomes a frozen conflict.

Increasingly, people are looking to the Korean war as a model of how this conflict could end. At least in terms of both sides ceasing to shoot at each other while territorial issues and other issues remain unresolved...

I assume that you don’t care as much for ethnic Russians in Ukraine or pro-Russian Ukrainians but the war is mostly being fought in the parts of Ukraine where they have lived.

Nobody was forcing the ethnic Russians  and/or pro-Russian Ukrainians to stay in Ukraine. If they didn't want to be part of Ukraine all they had to do was move to Russia.

So you think ethnic cleansing and discrimination against ethnic Russians in Ukraine is fair? What part of democracy or Western Liberalism embraces discrimination and opposition to cultural pluralism?
 
My view is, if Ukraine really intends to be a pluralistic democracy, they should follow the model of Canada. Which includes Quebec, a province that maintains French culture and language while the rest of Canada is predominantly Anglo-American culture and speaks English.

There’s no broad local opposition to Russian forces in that region of Ukraine.

Utter BS

It's true. The Ukrainian rebel militias formed in eastern Ukraine are allied with Russia. Today, they've been absorbed into the Russian army.