The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

Further evidence (as if it were needed) that the first shot did not miss and was, in fact, the one that caused JFK's extreme reaction, elbows up, clenched fists near his neck, slumping over.

The abundance of witness observations that JFK reacted to the first shot made it evident to the members of the WC that the first shot struck JFK.  Although they stated that it was possible that the first shot missed, not a single member of the WC actually thought that this had occurred.  The consensus that emerged from the WC Report, and which continued until the late 1980s as far as I can tell, was that the second shot missed.  See Gary Mack's statement at 132:08 of this video ("The Men Who Killed Kennedy"):

It is interesting that Dr. Shaw, who treated JBC's chest wound and was familiar with all the wounds, was skeptical that any shot missed:

[Dan O'meara]

The abundance of witness observations that JFK reacted to the first shot made it evident to the members of the WC that the first shot struck JFK.  Although they stated that it was possible that the first shot missed, not a single member of the WC actually thought that this had occurred.  The consensus that emerged from the WC Report, and which continued until the late 1980s as far as I can tell, was that the second shot missed.  See Gary Mack's statement at 132:08 of this video ("The Men Who Killed Kennedy"):

It is interesting that Dr. Shaw, who treated JBC's chest wound and was familiar with all the wounds, was skeptical that any shot missed:

Obviously, in the short excerpt of video posted Shaw doesn't express his skepticism about shots missing but he does raise a very important issue concerning the first shot - the unlikelihood of the Single Bullet Theory. After describing the nature of Connally's injuries Shaw goes on to say:

"I have never seen a bullet that had caused so much bony damage, as you found in the case of Gov. Connally, remain as a pristine bullet."

His skepticism is not based on the the amount of bony damage, it is based on the "pristine" nature of the bullet that is supposed to have caused all this damage. Cyril Wecht is unflinchingly mocking of the notion that CE399 could cause all this damage and remain in such a relatively in tact condition. In his Oral Histories presentation he says that if he was allowed to keep one piece of evidence from the mass of evidence pertaining to the JFK case, it would be the Warren Commission's own photograph of the heavily deformed bullet fired into a cadaver's wrist in order to replicate Gov. Connally's wrist wound.
Shaw makes an important point in the video - after describing the bullet shattering Conally's wrist bone he states:

"...and a small fragment of bullet entered the inner aspect of the lower left thigh."

This is consistent with the bullet fragmenting on contact with the radius, it would also account for the relatively large entrance wound compared to the small, slit-like exit wound at the crease of the wrist. This makes it impossible for CE399 to be the bullet that caused all the wounds to JFK and JBC. Once CE399 is taken out of the equation the single bullet theory becomes, not only plausible, but highly probable.

[Andrew Mason]

This is consistent with the bullet fragmenting on contact with the radius, it would also account for the relatively large entrance wound compared to the small, slit-like exit wound at the crease of the wrist. This makes it impossible for CE399 to be the bullet that caused all the wounds to JFK and JBC.

Shaw also says that the bullet through JFK's neck exiting by his tie knot on a right to left path should have hit JBC on the left side of his back.   Of course, that depends on when the first shot occurred and the orientation of the back.  If one asked Shaw what his opinion would be if the first shot occurred when JBC was turned sharply to the right, as seen prior to z200, I wonder what he might have said.

Once CE399 is taken out of the equation the single bullet theory becomes, not only plausible, but highly probable.

To take CE399 out of the equation, you have to assume it was planted.  It can't be a missed shot and it can't be the head shot.  There is no evidence that it was planted and little rationale for planting it. Planting it would promote a theory that Oswald DIDN'T fire all the shots. Surely, the "conspirators" who "planted CE399" in such a scenario, would not have wanted the evidence to point away from Oswald.

[Dan O'meara]

Shaw also says that the bullet through JFK's neck exiting by his tie knot on a right to left path should have hit JBC on the left side of his back.   Of course, that depends on when the first shot occurred and the orientation of the back.  If one asked Shaw what his opinion would be if the first shot occurred when JBC was turned sharply to the right, as seen prior to z200, I wonder what he might have said.

It is also the case that he makes the fundamental error of Magic Bullet theorists that Connally is sat directly in front of JFK. We know that isn't the case. And, as you have pointed out, it depends on the orientation of the back at the moment of the shot and, also, the alignment  of the limo with the SN.

To take CE399 out of the equation, you have to assume it was planted.  It can't be a missed shot and it can't be the head shot.  There is no evidence that it was planted and little rationale for planting it. Planting it would promote a theory that Oswald DIDN'T fire all the shots. Surely, the "conspirators" who "planted CE399" in such a scenario, would not have wanted the evidence to point away from Oswald.

I completely agree with what you're saying here.
I don't want to get into a scenario where evidence is being planted but I'm in a bind - for me, the evidence that both men were shot through at the same time (z223) is beyond compelling.
I do not accept CE399 caused all the "bony damage" attributed to the various wounds.
I find there is evidence that the bullet fragmented on contact with Connally's wrist bone.
I'm left to conclude (for the moment, at least) that the Single Bullet theory is correct but that CE399 was not that bullet.

[Andrew Mason]

It is also the case that he makes the fundamental error of Magic Bullet theorists that Connally is sat directly in front of JFK. We know that isn't the case. And, as you have pointed out, it depends on the orientation of the back at the moment of the shot and, also, the alignment  of the limo with the SN.

Whether the SBT trajectory works depends on:

1.  the time of the first shot.  This determines the angle of the path from the SN to JFK's neck to the car direction.
2.  the position of JBC relative to JFK.  This includes the right-left and back-front position as well as
3.  the orientation of JBC's back and left leg to the bullet path from the SN extended past JFK's throat exit point.

1.  The angle of the path relative to the car direction is about 9.5 degrees at z223:


At z195 the angle is about 14 degrees:


The problem with most drawings depicting the SBT is that they don't get the angle right.  This CNN drawing from 2013, for example, uses an angle of 7.5 degrees.  This is 2 degrees less than the actual angle at z223 and represents the angle at around z300.   


2. The CNN drawing also shows the relative positions incorrectly.  While JBC was slightly inboard of JFK with JFK resting his right arm on the top of the car,  JBC's jump seat was not that far inboard. Here is a photo taken on Houston just before turning onto Elm:


According to the H&E blueprint, the right edge of the jump seat was 2.5 inches from the inside of the door which was about .5 inches inboard of the inside panel next to JFK. So that puts JBC 3 inches inboard of JFK if JFK was sitting with his hips next to the right side of the car.  That still puts JBC's right armpit well to the right of JFK's neck exit wound without taking into account the further right to left path of the bullet in traveling from JFK to JBC.  Even if JBC was 6 inches inboard, it is still not nearly enough.  His midline has to be left of JFK's midline by the distance from his midline to right armpit plus the additional right to left distance the bullet covered after leaving JFK's neck. That is about 12 inches.  No one puts him anywhere near that far left (except Thomas Canning who put him over the drive shaft in his HSCA diagram).

3. There is no way that JBC's turn at z223-224 puts his right armpit to the left of JFK's midline.  JFK has moved to the left and is no longer pressing against the right side of the car.  JBC is no longer turned to his right as he was from z190-200.

So it seems pretty clear that the SBT trajectory has big problems.  Much easier to imagine the bullet through JFK's neck going, as Dr. Shaw stated, to JBC's left side.

I completely agree with what you're saying here.
I don't want to get into a scenario where evidence is being planted but I'm in a bind - for me, the evidence that both men were shot through at the same time (z223) is beyond compelling.
I do not accept CE399 caused all the "bony damage" attributed to the various wounds.
I find there is evidence that the bullet fragmented on contact with Connally's wrist bone.
I'm left to conclude (for the moment, at least) that the Single Bullet theory is correct but that CE399 was not that bullet.

I agree with everything except your view that the SBT is correct. 

[Dan O'meara]

Whether the SBT trajectory works depends on:

1.  the time of the first shot.  This determines the angle of the path from the SN to JFK's neck to the car direction.
2.  the position of JBC relative to JFK.  This includes the right-left and back-front position as well as
3.  the orientation of JBC's back and left leg to the bullet path from the SN extended past JFK's throat exit point.

1.  The angle of the path relative to the car direction is about 9.5 degrees at z223:


At z195 the angle is about 14 degrees:


The problem with most drawings depicting the SBT is that they don't get the angle right.  This CNN drawing from 2013, for example, uses an angle of 7.5 degrees.  This is 2 degrees less than the actual angle at z223 and represents the angle at around z300.   


2. The CNN drawing also shows the relative positions incorrectly.  While JBC was slightly inboard of JFK with JFK resting his right arm on the top of the car,  JBC's jump seat was not that far inboard. Here is a photo taken on Houston just before turning onto Elm:


According to the H&E blueprint, the right edge of the jump seat was 2.5 inches from the inside of the door which was about .5 inches inboard of the inside panel next to JFK. So that puts JBC 3 inches inboard of JFK if JFK was sitting with his hips next to the right side of the car.  That still puts JBC's right armpit well to the right of JFK's neck exit wound without taking into account the further right to left path of the bullet in traveling from JFK to JBC.  Even if JBC was 6 inches inboard, it is still not nearly enough.  His midline has to be left of JFK's midline by the distance from his midline to right armpit plus the additional right to left distance the bullet covered after leaving JFK's neck. That is about 12 inches.  No one puts him anywhere near that far left (except Thomas Canning who put him over the drive shaft in his HSCA diagram).

3. There is no way that JBC's turn at z223-224 puts his right armpit to the left of JFK's midline.  JFK has moved to the left and is no longer pressing against the right side of the car.  JBC is no longer turned to his right as he was from z190-200.

So it seems pretty clear that the SBT trajectory has big problems.  Much easier to imagine the bullet through JFK's neck going, as Dr. Shaw stated, to JBC's left side.
I agree with everything except your view that the SBT is correct.

It's frustrating, you're posting images but I can't see them.
I don't feel I can really engage in the debate.
Have you tried Postimage?
Can other forum members see your images?

[Zeon Mason]

Dan, the diagram map that was posted by Andrew Mason shows a red LOS line going thru the tree at Z195😳

If there are ONLY 3 shots and the 1st shot is a hit at 195 as theorized, and hits ONLY JFK then the 2nd shot that hits Connaly defacto must be at approx z223-225 as it’s quite apparent that Connalys right shoulder is being abruptly rotated counterclockwise.

I’m dubious of 2 separate shots fired unless someone has some evidence of an suppressed shot fired which of course means 2 shooters at least.

And the tree is an obstacle that the SE window shooter is very likely aware of so even if it can be proved that the leaves were less dense in 63 , it’s stiil questionable to choose to take a shot between z186-z210 when the tree branches are an obstruction rather than taking a shot just prior to it just afterwards when there is a clear LOS.

The trajectory for the single shot hitting both JFK and Connolly does NOT have to be a perfect straight line.

There is possibility of slight deflections possible for a bullet going thru 2human bodies.

The only problem really is the apparent anomaly of the insignificant amount of deformation of CE 399.

Willis has the 1st shot fired not earlier than Z205 which is the approximate verified time of his photo taken relative to the Z film location of the JFK limo.

I’m considering the idea also of the3rd shot missed fired 0.5 sec AFTER 313 head shot because my theory is that a semi auto rifle was used and that the shooter after seeing his 1st shot not the kill shot desired, took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim and then squeezed off 2 shots in rapid succession.

The 3rd /last shot was a miss because of muzzle rise just enough that caused that shot to hit the curb near Tague.

The questionable chain of handling of CE399 and how it was “found” and the presence of metallic element uncharacteristic of MC bullet found in the curb section suggest a different type bullet was fired.