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Author Topic: The First Shot  (Read 125908 times)

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #856 on: February 09, 2022, 08:42:20 PM »
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Shaw also says that the bullet through JFK's neck exiting by his tie knot on a right to left path should have hit JBC on the left side of his back.   Of course, that depends on when the first shot occurred and the orientation of the back.  If one asked Shaw what his opinion would be if the first shot occurred when JBC was turned sharply to the right, as seen prior to z200, I wonder what he might have said.

It is also the case that he makes the fundamental error of Magic Bullet theorists that Connally is sat directly in front of JFK. We know that isn't the case. And, as you have pointed out, it depends on the orientation of the back at the moment of the shot and, also, the alignment  of the limo with the SN.

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To take CE399 out of the equation, you have to assume it was planted.  It can't be a missed shot and it can't be the head shot.  There is no evidence that it was planted and little rationale for planting it. Planting it would promote a theory that Oswald DIDN'T fire all the shots. Surely, the "conspirators" who "planted CE399" in such a scenario, would not have wanted the evidence to point away from Oswald.

I completely agree with what you're saying here.
I don't want to get into a scenario where evidence is being planted but I'm in a bind - for me, the evidence that both men were shot through at the same time (z223) is beyond compelling.
I do not accept CE399 caused all the "bony damage" attributed to the various wounds.
I find there is evidence that the bullet fragmented on contact with Connally's wrist bone.
I'm left to conclude (for the moment, at least) that the Single Bullet theory is correct but that CE399 was not that bullet.


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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #856 on: February 09, 2022, 08:42:20 PM »


Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #857 on: February 10, 2022, 11:13:44 PM »
It is also the case that he makes the fundamental error of Magic Bullet theorists that Connally is sat directly in front of JFK. We know that isn't the case. And, as you have pointed out, it depends on the orientation of the back at the moment of the shot and, also, the alignment  of the limo with the SN.
Whether the SBT trajectory works depends on:

1.  the time of the first shot.  This determines the angle of the path from the SN to JFK's neck to the car direction.
2.  the position of JBC relative to JFK.  This includes the right-left and back-front position as well as
3.  the orientation of JBC's back and left leg to the bullet path from the SN extended past JFK's throat exit point.

1.  The angle of the path relative to the car direction is about 9.5 degrees at z223:


At z195 the angle is about 14 degrees:


The problem with most drawings depicting the SBT is that they don't get the angle right.  This CNN drawing from 2013, for example, uses an angle of 7.5 degrees.  This is 2 degrees less than the actual angle at z223 and represents the angle at around z300.   


2. The CNN drawing also shows the relative positions incorrectly.  While JBC was slightly inboard of JFK with JFK resting his right arm on the top of the car,  JBC's jump seat was not that far inboard. Here is a photo taken on Houston just before turning onto Elm:


According to the H&E blueprint, the right edge of the jump seat was 2.5 inches from the inside of the door which was about .5 inches inboard of the inside panel next to JFK. So that puts JBC 3 inches inboard of JFK if JFK was sitting with his hips next to the right side of the car.  That still puts JBC's right armpit well to the right of JFK's neck exit wound without taking into account the further right to left path of the bullet in traveling from JFK to JBC.  Even if JBC was 6 inches inboard, it is still not nearly enough.  His midline has to be left of JFK's midline by the distance from his midline to right armpit plus the additional right to left distance the bullet covered after leaving JFK's neck. That is about 12 inches.  No one puts him anywhere near that far left (except Thomas Canning who put him over the drive shaft in his HSCA diagram).

3. There is no way that JBC's turn at z223-224 puts his right armpit to the left of JFK's midline.  JFK has moved to the left and is no longer pressing against the right side of the car.  JBC is no longer turned to his right as he was from z190-200.

So it seems pretty clear that the SBT trajectory has big problems.  Much easier to imagine the bullet through JFK's neck going, as Dr. Shaw stated, to JBC's left side.

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I completely agree with what you're saying here.
I don't want to get into a scenario where evidence is being planted but I'm in a bind - for me, the evidence that both men were shot through at the same time (z223) is beyond compelling.
I do not accept CE399 caused all the "bony damage" attributed to the various wounds.
I find there is evidence that the bullet fragmented on contact with Connally's wrist bone.
I'm left to conclude (for the moment, at least) that the Single Bullet theory is correct but that CE399 was not that bullet.
I agree with everything except your view that the SBT is correct. 

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #858 on: February 10, 2022, 11:24:45 PM »
Whether the SBT trajectory works depends on:

1.  the time of the first shot.  This determines the angle of the path from the SN to JFK's neck to the car direction.
2.  the position of JBC relative to JFK.  This includes the right-left and back-front position as well as
3.  the orientation of JBC's back and left leg to the bullet path from the SN extended past JFK's throat exit point.

1.  The angle of the path relative to the car direction is about 9.5 degrees at z223:


At z195 the angle is about 14 degrees:


The problem with most drawings depicting the SBT is that they don't get the angle right.  This CNN drawing from 2013, for example, uses an angle of 7.5 degrees.  This is 2 degrees less than the actual angle at z223 and represents the angle at around z300.   


2. The CNN drawing also shows the relative positions incorrectly.  While JBC was slightly inboard of JFK with JFK resting his right arm on the top of the car,  JBC's jump seat was not that far inboard. Here is a photo taken on Houston just before turning onto Elm:


According to the H&E blueprint, the right edge of the jump seat was 2.5 inches from the inside of the door which was about .5 inches inboard of the inside panel next to JFK. So that puts JBC 3 inches inboard of JFK if JFK was sitting with his hips next to the right side of the car.  That still puts JBC's right armpit well to the right of JFK's neck exit wound without taking into account the further right to left path of the bullet in traveling from JFK to JBC.  Even if JBC was 6 inches inboard, it is still not nearly enough.  His midline has to be left of JFK's midline by the distance from his midline to right armpit plus the additional right to left distance the bullet covered after leaving JFK's neck. That is about 12 inches.  No one puts him anywhere near that far left (except Thomas Canning who put him over the drive shaft in his HSCA diagram).

3. There is no way that JBC's turn at z223-224 puts his right armpit to the left of JFK's midline.  JFK has moved to the left and is no longer pressing against the right side of the car.  JBC is no longer turned to his right as he was from z190-200.

So it seems pretty clear that the SBT trajectory has big problems.  Much easier to imagine the bullet through JFK's neck going, as Dr. Shaw stated, to JBC's left side.
I agree with everything except your view that the SBT is correct.

It's frustrating, you're posting images but I can't see them.
I don't feel I can really engage in the debate.
Have you tried Postimage?
Can other forum members see your images?

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #858 on: February 10, 2022, 11:24:45 PM »


Offline Zeon Mason

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #859 on: February 11, 2022, 11:04:54 AM »
Dan, the diagram map that was posted by Andrew Mason shows a red LOS line going thru the tree at Z195😳

If there are ONLY 3 shots and the 1st shot is a hit at 195 as theorized, and hits ONLY JFK then the 2nd shot that hits Connaly defacto must be at approx z223-225 as it’s quite apparent that Connalys right shoulder is being abruptly rotated counterclockwise.

I’m dubious of 2 separate shots fired unless someone has some evidence of an suppressed shot fired which of course means 2 shooters at least.

And the tree is an obstacle that the SE window shooter is very likely aware of so even if it can be proved that the leaves were less dense in 63 , it’s stiil questionable to choose to take a shot between z186-z210 when the tree branches are an obstruction rather than taking a shot just prior to it just afterwards when there is a clear LOS.

The trajectory for the single shot hitting both JFK and Connolly does NOT have to be a perfect straight line.

There is possibility of slight deflections possible for a bullet going thru 2human bodies.

The only problem really is the apparent anomaly of the insignificant amount of deformation of CE 399.

Willis has the 1st shot fired not earlier than Z205 which is the approximate verified time of his photo taken relative to the Z film location of the JFK limo.

I’m considering the idea also of the3rd shot missed fired 0.5 sec AFTER 313 head shot because my theory is that a semi auto rifle was used and that the shooter after seeing his 1st shot not the kill shot desired, took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim and then squeezed off 2 shots in rapid succession.

The 3rd /last shot was a miss because of muzzle rise just enough that caused that shot to hit the curb near Tague.

The questionable chain of handling of CE399 and how it was “found” and the presence of metallic element uncharacteristic of MC bullet found in the curb section suggest a different type bullet was fired.

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #860 on: February 11, 2022, 12:53:24 PM »
Dan, the diagram map that was posted by Andrew Mason shows a red LOS line going thru the tree at Z195😳

Hi Zeon,
so you can see the images that Andrew is posting?
It's annoying I can't see them

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If there are ONLY 3 shots and the 1st shot is a hit at 195 as theorized, and hits ONLY JFK then the 2nd shot that hits Connaly defacto must be at approx z223-225 as it’s quite apparent that Connalys right shoulder is being abruptly rotated counterclockwise.

I’m dubious of 2 separate shots fired unless someone has some evidence of an suppressed shot fired which of course means 2 shooters at least.

I'm satisfied that the evidence and arguments I've presented in this thread demonstrate the first shot was at z223 and that it passed through both men.

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And the tree is an obstacle that the SE window shooter is very likely aware of so even if it can be proved that the leaves were less dense in 63 , it’s stiil questionable to choose to take a shot between z186-z210 when the tree branches are an obstruction rather than taking a shot just prior to it just afterwards when there is a clear LOS.

I believe the shooter was well aware of the tree. Ronald Fischer makes an interesting point about the man he saw in the Sniper's Nest:

"The man held my attention for 10 or 15 seconds, because he appeared uncomfortable for one, and, secondly, he wasn't watching-uh---he didn't look like he was watching for the parade. He looked like he was looking down toward the Trinity River and the triple underpass down at the end-toward the end of Elm Street. And--uh--all the time I watched him, he never moved his head, he never-he never moved anything. Just was there transfixed."

I get the impression the shooter may have been visualising the shots. It appears the shooter knew in advance when the shots would be taken, it wasn't a last minute decision. The notion of him firing through the tree is a non-starter as far as I'm concerned, he would have visualised the limo coming out from under the tree before the first shot was fired.


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The trajectory for the single shot hitting both JFK and Connolly does NOT have to be a perfect straight line.

There is possibility of slight deflections possible for a bullet going thru 2human bodies.

I was hoping Andrew's images were going to show the position of the limo at z223 and the kind of angle the limo was travelling relative to the Sniper's Nest. The best image I can find is this from the FBI reenactment:



Ignoring the positions of the men in the limo, the bottom left photo shows that the limo was moving away at a very shallow angle relative to the SN (if that makes sense). Trying to visualise the actual position of the men in the limo, I find it very difficult to believe a bullet passing through JFK would not hit JBC directly in the back.
Most people believe the bullet that passed through JFK didn't strike any bone but the fact is it fractured one of his vertebrae. However, I don't believe this would have caused any meaningful diversion of the bullet's trajectory. I imagine the bullet would have been noticeably deflected passing through JBC.

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The only problem really is the apparent anomaly of the insignificant amount of deformation of CE 399.

CE399 has nothing to do with it. The bullet was first noticed by Darrell Tomlinson, an engineer at Parkland, who alerted O P Wright. Wright was the first to pick the bullet up and he gave it to Secret Service agent Richard Johnsen. This is from http://22november1963.org.uk/ce-399-magic-bullet-planted-or-genuine

"A private researcher, Josiah Thompson, tracked down Wright in November 1966 and asked him about the bullet. In the presence of two witnesses, Wright replied that the bullet he had seen possessed a pointed tip rather than the rounded tip of the CE 399 bullet;"

"Wright’s assertion that CE 399 was not the bullet he had seen was supported by another FBI memo, dated 20 June 1964 and declassified several decades after the assassination: “neither DARRELL C. TOMLINSON … nor O.P. WRIGHT … can identify bullet.”

"The 7 July memo was contradicted also by Bardwell D. Odum, the splendidly named FBI agent who, according to the memo, showed CE 399 to Tomlinson and Wright. Odum was interviewed by Josiah Thompson and another researcher, and denied that he had ever handled the CE 399 bullet."

The Warren Commission asked the FBI in May 1964 to attempt to authenticate the chain of possession of various items of evidence, including Commission Exhibit 399. There were problems with the early stages of the bullet’s journey:

1) Tomlinson “cannot positively identify the bullet.”
2) Wright “could not positively identify C1 as being the same bullet.”
3) Johnsen “could not identify this bullet.”
4) Behn does not appear to have been asked to identify the bullet.
5) Rowley “could not identify this bullet.”


The full article is worth a read and it concludes CE 399 was fraudulently introduced into evidence.

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Willis has the 1st shot fired not earlier than Z205 which is the approximate verified time of his photo taken relative to the Z film location of the JFK limo.

I don't accept Willis' statements about the first shot for one second. He was a salesman who took some mediocre slides of the motorcade. He just happened to be taking pictures at the time of the assassination and realised that this made his pictures valuable. He instantly copyrighted his images and set up Phil Willis Enterprises with the express purpose of gaining financially from JFK's death. He gave his slides grandiose titles to enhance their importance and, therefore, financial value. One is entitled "His Last Wave - First Shot 3 Seconds Away", not only is JFK's final wave after this picture, it's not even a picture of JFK waving - he's brushing his hair to one side. Another is a random pic of some people milling around outside the TSBD. Willis tries to inject a bit of excitement by entitling it "The Search For The Assassin Has Already Begun". This is the light in which slide #5 has to be viewed. To heighten it's financial value Willis entitled it "Assassins First Bullet Strikes The President". There is nothing in this picture that even hints that a shot has been taken so Willis made up his little story about how he reacted to the first shot by taking the picture. He even got his kids involved.
As already stated, a shot through the tree is a non-starter and Willis requires a shot through the tree.


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I’m considering the idea also of the3rd shot missed fired 0.5 sec AFTER 313 head shot because my theory is that a semi auto rifle was used and that the shooter after seeing his 1st shot not the kill shot desired, took another 4.8 secs to carefully aim and then squeezed off 2 shots in rapid succession.

It's my opinion that 3 shots were fired from the SN but that Oswald did not take the shots. This means a planned conspiracy involving others. Once this is the case the Mannlicher Carcano can be viewed as nothing more than a prop to frame Oswald. This doesn't mean the MC wasn't used, it just means there is no reason why a proper, non-toytown rifle could be used.

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The 3rd /last shot was a miss because of muzzle rise just enough that caused that shot to hit the curb near Tague.

The questionable chain of handling of CE399 and how it was “found” and the presence of metallic element uncharacteristic of MC bullet found in the curb section suggest a different type bullet was fired.

I also favour a missed third shot but finding direct evidence to prove this has been a fruitless search. I have come to this conclusion through a process of elimination instead. It is odd that the third shot should miss after two successes. It is odd that a third shot should be taken after the obvious success of the head-shot. The rapidity of the third shot after the second shot might indicate an unintentional shot but it's just speculation. It might be the case that Clint Hill coming into view forced the shooter to pull the last shot high. Again, pure speculation.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2022, 01:00:10 PM by Dan O'meara »

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #860 on: February 11, 2022, 12:53:24 PM »


Offline Jerry Organ

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #861 on: February 11, 2022, 02:58:59 PM »
Hi Zeon,
so you can see the images that Andrew is posting?
It's annoying I can't see them.

Does your browser have a script-blocker? In Firefox, it would be an "Add-on".

Mason's web server might be in Canada; that may be a factor for you.

Are you using an older tablet? For example, I see Mason's images OK on desktop computer, but my iPad won't display it. The tablet is only five years old; when Apple withdrew support for it, the OS couldn't update, so it can't process things like modern scripting or the "webp" format.

There may be a dozen other reasons why you can't see the images, but it's probably some limiting factor on your end.

I checked with my CIA handler and she said they weren't monitoring your internet and hadn't compromised it yet.  8)
« Last Edit: February 11, 2022, 03:00:58 PM by Jerry Organ »

Online Dan O'meara

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #862 on: February 11, 2022, 07:14:23 PM »
Does your browser have a script-blocker? In Firefox, it would be an "Add-on".

Mason's web server might be in Canada; that may be a factor for you.

Are you using an older tablet? For example, I see Mason's images OK on desktop computer, but my iPad won't display it. The tablet is only five years old; when Apple withdrew support for it, the OS couldn't update, so it can't process things like modern scripting or the "webp" format.

There may be a dozen other reasons why you can't see the images, but it's probably some limiting factor on your end.

I checked with my CIA handler and she said they weren't monitoring your internet and hadn't compromised it yet.  8)


I checked with my CIA handler and she said they weren't monitoring your internet and hadn't compromised it yet.  8)

 ;D Send her my love.
My laptop is fairly new and I can't find any kind of script-blocker.
It only seems to be Andrew's images I can't see for some reason.
Just one of those things but thanks for advice.

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #862 on: February 11, 2022, 07:14:23 PM »


Offline Bill Chapman

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Re: The First Shot
« Reply #863 on: February 11, 2022, 08:06:23 PM »
Jump seats