My wife is over there now. The elephant in the room is that Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. I don't see Russia ever whimpering for mercy. I can see Russia being pushed into doing something truly ghastly, especially with the demonstrated unwillingness of Trump and Europe to confront Putin in a meaningful way. It seems to me that now, with the balance at least shifting toward Ukraine, would be the time for a really strong push toward a negotiated peace.
Do they? We saw in 2022 Russian vehicles roll into Ukraine on flat tires. Money was allocated for good quality tires. But much cheaper tires were bought instead. And the bulk of the money pocketed by military officers.
Could something similar have happened to the nuclear weapons? The United States spends a lot of money on maintenance of our nuclear arsenal, more capital each year than Russia's entire military budget, even though, officially, Russia has more nuclear weapons. We spend this money because the maintenance must be performed to keep the nuclear weapons in working order.
Put yourself in a Russian officer's shoes. Is your fraud more likely to found out if you take money meant for buying tires? Or take money meant for maintaining nuclear weapons. Are the vehicles more likely to be used in some ground war? Or are the nuclear weapons more likely to be used. If one is willing to risk buying inferior tires, one should be willing to skip maintenance of nuclear weapons.
So, Russia did not spend that much on yearly maintenance, and it is possible much of that went into the pockets of high induvial. The money for tires was diverted because officials thought it was likely the tires would never be needed. How much more likely would a high official think the nuclear weapons would never be needed.
In any case, Putin might give an order to launch an attack. Afterall, as things get desperate, what has he to lose? But his lieutenants would feel differently. They have a chance to take Putin's place and that would all be ruined by a nuclear war.
It makes sense for Russia to bluff. It does not make sense for Russia to use nuclear weapons. What makes more sense is for his lieutenants to kill him, if he gives that order and to take his place.
