Ukraine Update for 2026

[Joe Elliott]

It has been a long time since we have discussed Ukraine. A couple of years ago, particularly after Trump won the 2024 election, some here were arguing that things were hopeless for Ukraine. Well, how are things going there? Russia gains have ground to a half. Their main efforts now seem to be to kill as many Ukrainian civilians as they can.

Will the Ukrainian civilians stand up to these drone attacks? I am confident that the answer is yes. So far, in four years of war, Russian has killed around 15,800 Ukrainian civilians, according to the UN's OHCHR estimates. How do these losses, in proportion to their population, rank with other civilian loses in the past and recently.

Germany, 1940-1945: One in 177 civilians killed
Great Britain, 1940-1945: One in 618 civilians killed
America, 2022-2026, One in 2,068 civilians killed in automobile accidents.
Ukraine, 2022-2026, One in 2,318 known civilians killed by Russia.

I expect America to throw in the towel and swear off driving cars before I see Ukraine throw in the towel.

Also, likely far more Ukrainians have died in face-to-face encounters with Russian troops than from drone or missile attack. Most of these deaths are unrecorded because they occur in Russian held territory. But when Ukraine recaptured a lot of territory in the spring of 2022, the bodies of 4,313 were found, killed not by drones but Russia troops. The true number of Ukrainians killed by drones or missiles is more like 12,000. And the number of Ukrainian civilians killed at close range by Russian troops is likely several times that. Giving in to Russia will likely not cause this death rate to stop but to greatly increase.

Ukraine has a wolf by the ears. They have no other choice. And as they stay the course, the wolf is getting weaker and weaker and must eventually whimper for mercy and abandon all Ukrainian territory. It will quickly turn into a strong wolf if they do otherwise.

Slava Ukraine !

[Benjamin Cole]

JE-

Well, this is OT for the this forum...but Ukraine appears to have turned the tide in recent weeks.

I am appalled Western liberal democracies have not shown more resolve in defeating Tehran and Putin.

Trump is to blame, Euro-weaklings can be blamed, even the smarmy Gulf States can be blamed. 

When Putin and the IRGC go down, the world will be a better place.

[Lance Payette]

My wife is over there now. The elephant in the room is that Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. I don't see Russia ever whimpering for mercy. I can see Russia being pushed into doing something truly ghastly, especially with the demonstrated unwillingness of Trump and Europe to confront Putin in a meaningful way. It seems to me that now, with the balance at least shifting toward Ukraine, would be the time for a really strong push toward a negotiated peace.

[Jarrett Smith]

My wife is over there now. The elephant in the room is that Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. I don't see Russia ever whimpering for mercy. I can see Russia being pushed into doing something truly ghastly, especially with the demonstrated unwillingness of Trump and Europe to confront Putin in a meaningful way. It seems to me that now, with the balance at least shifting toward Ukraine, would be the time for a really strong push toward a negotiated peace.

It's rumored 75% or more of their nuclear arsenal isn't functionable.   

[Lance Payette]

I wouldn't want to bet my country or my world on that rumor. This is from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

As of early 2025, we estimate that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,309 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. This is a net decrease of approximately 71 warheads from last year, largely due to a change in our estimate of warheads assigned to non-strategic nuclear forces. Of the stockpiled warheads, approximately 1,718 strategic warheads are deployed: about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly slightly over 200 at heavy bomber bases. Another approximately 1,114 strategic warheads are in storage, along with about 1,477 nonstrategic warheads. In addition to the military stockpile for operational forces, a large number—approximately 1,150—of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement, for a total inventory of approximately 5,459 warheads.

https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-05/russian-nuclear-weapons-2025/?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22620259604&gbraid=0AAAAAC3qOh-1Dd7CJ3jPAWeNCSnuOBi2b&gclid=Cj0KCQjw0JnRBhDJARIsALobnXZui9gWOzneozhx2ilA8uvfaGKK_eVPrdTNGPvGJYxwN__fv-0hSboaAiytEALw_wcB

[John Corbett]

I wonder how long it will be before these posts get moved to the U.S. And International Politics thread.

[Richard Smith]

It has been a long time since we have discussed Ukraine. A couple of years ago, particularly after Trump won the 2024 election, some here were arguing that things were hopeless for Ukraine. Well, how are things going there? Russia gains have ground to a half. Their main efforts now seem to be to kill as many Ukrainian civilians as they can.

Will the Ukrainian civilians stand up to these drone attacks? I am confident that the answer is yes. So far, in four years of war, Russian has killed around 15,800 Ukrainian civilians, according to the UN's OHCHR estimates. How do these losses, in proportion to their population, rank with other civilian loses in the past and recently.

Germany, 1940-1945: One in 177 civilians killed
Great Britain, 1940-1945: One in 618 civilians killed
America, 2022-2026, One in 2,068 civilians killed in automobile accidents.
Ukraine, 2022-2026, One in 2,318 known civilians killed by Russia.

I expect America to throw in the towel and swear off driving cars before I see Ukraine throw in the towel.

Also, likely far more Ukrainians have died in face-to-face encounters with Russian troops than from drone or missile attack. Most of these deaths are unrecorded because they occur in Russian held territory. But when Ukraine recaptured a lot of territory in the spring of 2022, the bodies of 4,313 were found, killed not by drones but Russia troops. The true number of Ukrainians killed by drones or missiles is more like 12,000. And the number of Ukrainian civilians killed at close range by Russian troops is likely several times that. Giving in to Russia will likely not cause this death rate to stop but to greatly increase.

Ukraine has a wolf by the ears. They have no other choice. And as they stay the course, the wolf is getting weaker and weaker and must eventually whimper for mercy and abandon all Ukrainian territory. It will quickly turn into a strong wolf if they do otherwise.

Slava Ukraine !

No one ever argued that things were hopeless in Ukraine.  That is a false premise.  The Trump argument has always been that the US should not bankroll the entire effort while others sit back and do nothing.  Trump solved that problem by not giving Urkaine billions of dollars.  He is requiring them to pay it back and putting pressure on our so called "allies" to do their part.  It's unfortunate that Obama only sent Ukraine blankets while sending Iran a plane load of cash.  Biden's weakness emboldened Putin to invade.  Biden's only plan was US taxpayers funding an endless war in Ukraine while Europe sat back and laughed at us.