An interesting question for LNers from John Simkin

[Lance Payette]

John Simkin, founder of the Ed Forum, posted this today:

"An interesting question for those who still believe the 'lone gunman theory' is what kind of evidence that was provided to them would make them change their mind about the subject."

I would need something (1) unequivocal that is (2) directly tied to Dealey Plaza. An absolutely authentic, no-question-about-it document from the CIA, FBI, Mafia or Whomever that predates the assassination and clearly refers to "our patsy in the TSBD," "our sniper in the Dal-Tex Building," or something of similar import. Or even a similarly no-question-about-it document in Oswald's handwriting that specifically and unequivocally refers to some conspiratorial plot.

The evidence has been scrutinized by too many highly qualified people who have reached the LN conclusion for me to ever be swayed by yet more speculation, especially speculation that has nothing directly to do with Dealey Plaza and 11-22-63. There is not some "tipping point" where I'm going to say, "Well, that does it. The innuendos and speculation surrounding those 12 documents have put me over the edge into conspiracy world" (or even, "Yes, the doubt about the SBT has now reached a sufficient level that I must plant my flag in conspiracy world").

I mentioned before that a longtime CTer who encouraged my efforts at the Ed Forum once said to me privately, "Sooner or later, John Newman is going to have to bring it to Dealey Plaza ... but I doubt he ever will." No, he never will. He'll continue trying to reinvent Oswald as the Most Interesting Man Who Ever Lived.

CTers need a theory in which Dealey Plaza makes sense as a real-world, Presidential assassination conspiracy and at least one piece of absolutely authentic, no-question-about-it evidence. Then I might be swayed.

That's why I'm always referring to "ad hoc" CT theorizing. CTers are stuck with the inconvenient reality of Lee Harvey Oswald, Dealey Plaza and the messy aftermath - and none of it can be fitted into a real-world, Presidential assassination conspiracy theory that makes any sense. When we start asking how it would have made sense, both in broad conception and at each stage, we understandably get crickets.

Hence, I would require something like the level of evidence that would convince me the Apollo moon landing was fake.

[Jarrett Smith]

What changed my mind was Joe Marshall Smith’s encounter with a “secret service” agent behind the fence, when no actual SS agents were stationed there.

Another was Ruby’s encounter with Seth Cantor at parkland, and ruby stalking Oswald all weekend.

[Tim Nickerson]

What changed my mind was Joe Marshall Smith’s encounter with a “secret service” agent behind the fence, when no actual SS agents were stationed there.

Another was Ruby’s encounter with Seth Cantor at parkland, and ruby stalking Oswald all weekend.

Joe Marshall thought that he encountered a secret service agent behind the fence. He was wrong of course. However, assuming that he really did encounter a secret service agent behind the fence, how would that challenge the lone gunman theory?

[Lance Payette]

What changed my mind was Joe Marshall Smith’s encounter with a “secret service” agent behind the fence, when no actual SS agents were stationed there.

Another was Ruby’s encounter with Seth Cantor at parkland, and ruby stalking Oswald all weekend.

That's Seth Kantor, which I mention only because there is a well-known Seth Cantor.

Those are two incidents that are disputed as to what actually occurred and, as Tim points out, it's hard for me to understand how either would shift a LNer into the CT camp. Let's say Smith actually did encounter someone posing as a SS agent and Kantor actually did encounter Ruby at Parkland, and even that Ruby stalked Oswald all weekend - where would that get us?

I do tend to think this is what occurs, not so much to shift people from the LN camp to the CT camp but simply to put lots of people in the CT camp. They hear about so much "weirdness" that they conclude "Well, there surely had to be a conspiracy of some sort."

I recall, when I was a CTer, writing a post on a forum exactly along those lines: What about THIS, and THIS, and THIS, and THIS, and THIS - are you seriously going to tell me there was no conspiracy??? People who were far better-informed responded, "Well, yes we are."

The THIS and THIS and THIS approach quickly loses sight of the forest for the trees. That's why I think it's useful to step back and ask whether what is being suggested, conspiracy-wise, makes any real-world sense. When a supposed Presidential assassination conspiracy looks like it was planned and carried out by the Keystone Cops, the suspicion has to be that the real problem is the conspiracy theory.

[Richard Smith]

This is a very simple case.  The rifle used to assassinate JFK belonged to LHO.  It was found in his place of employment.  No other person has ever been associated with that rifle.  So the evidence that would lead me to conclude otherwise would relate to the rifle.  Demonstrating that it somehow was not Oswald's or that some other person had access and possession of that rifle on 11.22.  Conclusive proof that more than three shots were fired would also create doubt.  Of course, even if Oswald was the shooter, that doesn't mean he was not part of a conspiracy, but I've never seen any credible evidence of that being the case.

[Charles Collins]

This might be a good place and time to ask: How many folks do you know of that have actually converted from the LN camp to the CT camp. If you know of any, and why they switched, please inform us. I have read about many that have converted from the CT camp to the LN camp. It appears that Lance just might be one of those.

To answer the question posed, I think that my stance is quite similar to what Lance answered. Except that I don’t have any reasonable doubts regarding the single bullet theory.

[Lance Payette]

This might be a good place and time to ask: How many folks do you know of that have actually converted from the LN camp to the CT camp. If you know of any, and why they switched, please inform us. I have read about many that have converted from the CT camp to the LN camp. It appears that Lance just might be one of those.

To answer the question posed, I think that my stance is quite similar to what Lance answered. Except that I don’t have any reasonable doubts regarding the single bullet theory.

Oh, yes, I think the reverse scenario - conversion from CT to LN - is far more common as one becomes better informed about the JFKA and stops relying on Gee Whiz True Believer conspiracy books and videos. Because the CT scenarios are far more interesting than the dull old LN narrative, they are what get the attention and influence public opinion. When I was a Gee Whiz True Believer, I had read and heard NOTHING but the CT side. It did sound overwhelming. I had exactly the attitude of Simkin and the Ed Forum regulars: How could any FOOL not see that there simply HAD to be a conspiracy??? There is a vocal faction at the Ed Forum who think Lone Nutters should be banned because they simply HAVE to be trolls, disinformation agents or completely uninformed idiots. I'm frankly surprised that Simkin is as far into that mindset as he apparently is.

[Paul J Cummings]

I find it amazing Dallas Police Chief Curry couldn't put LHO on the sixth with a gun but you can.

This is a very simple case.  The rifle used to assassinate JFK belonged to LHO.  It was found in his place of employment.  No other person has ever been associated with that rifle.  So the evidence that would lead me to conclude otherwise would relate to the rifle.  Demonstrating that it somehow was not Oswald's or that some other person had access and possession of that rifle on 11.22.  Conclusive proof that more than three shots were fired would also create doubt.  Of course, even if Oswald was the shooter, that doesn't mean he was not part of a conspiracy, but I've never seen any credible evidence of that being the case.