The Shifting Single-Bullet Theory--It Always "Works" No Matter What

[Andrew Mason]

The FBI initially thought that all three shots hit.  That may have been based  on what the Connallys said and the evidence that the last two shots were closer together.  They appear to have accepted that the shots were spaced like this:

FBI agents Frazier and Simmons did their shooting tests with Oswald's rifle with targets spaced at 175, 240 and 265 feet based on the evidence that the last two shots were closer together.  This timing difference also made sense to them because the change in shooting angle between 1 and 2 would have been greater than between 2 and 3 so it would take longer to re-aim the rifle between shots 1 and 2 than between 2 and 3 (Simmons 3 H 444):

• I should make one comment here relative to the angular displacement of the targets. We did not reproduce these angles exactly from the map which we had been given because the conditions in the field were a little awkward for this. But the distance--the angular distance from the first target to the second was greater than from the second to the third, which would tend to correspond to a longer interval of time between the first and second impact than between the second and the third. The movement of the rifle was greater from the first to the second target than from the second to the third.

Then Agent Frazier became an expert on human anatomy and decided on his own, apparently, that JBC was turned too far around by z240 to have sustained his torso wounds so he must have been hit by z235 or z240 (3 H 170).  By that time they had done a botched recreation (using the Queen Mary security car and new full spring foliage on the oak tree) and concluded that the first shot occurred no earlier than z210.  This was a problem because there was not enough time between z210 and z235 for Oswald to have fired two shots.

So, Arlen Specter came up with the SBT to solve the problem.  It was not based on evidence. It was based on opinions that conflicted with the evidence. It was, according to Specter, based on the assumption that JBC had been hit by only one bullet and the absence of any indication in the car that the car had been struck by the bullet that exited JFK's throat.

But this presented a huge problem trying to reconcile the evidence of the Connallys (supported by others such as Gayle Newman and Dave Powers) that JBC was not hit in the back on the first shot but was hit by the second shot several seconds after the first shot was heard.  Connally had a clear recollection of the impact of the second shot which occurred after he heard the first shot, recognized it as a rifle shot and turned around trying to check on the President.   Since there were many witnesses who said that JFK reacted to the first shot and this appeared to be corroborated by witnesses who could identify the location of the President at the time of the first shot, and because of the 1.......2....3 shot pattern, the first shot must have gone through both men and the Connallys were simply mistaken.  This was certainly the view of John McCloy.

Of course, the WC left it open as to which shot missed (a necessary consequence of the SBT) while acknowledging that there was quite a bit of evidence that each of the three shots did not miss.  Of course, three commissioners (Russell, Cooper and Boggs) never accepted the SBT.

Then the HSCA came along and decided that the first shot was around z160 and missed and the SBT occurred around z190.  This left only about 1.6 seconds between shots.  And, of course, there was the problem that they also found there were 4 shots and a conspiracy.  However, SBT proponents were happier with the conclusion that the first shot missed because that meant that Governor Connally had not been hallucinating about being hit seconds after hearing the first shot.  It didn't fit with Nellie's evidence, although it did fit with her sense that the first two shots were closer together than the last two (contrary to many more witnesses who recalled that the last two were closer and in rapid succession).  So Nellie was right on the spacing of the shots but wrong on seeing JFK reacting to the first shot.  And the rest of the witnesses could just be ignored.

But the HSCA conclusion of 1.6 seconds between the first two shots was not a good fit.  Once the acoustic evidence was (correctly) discredited, SBT proponents were free to conclude that there could have been a longer space between 1 and 2 - at least enough time for Oswald to have fired the shots. Then came urologist Dr. Lattimer who added two more letters to his degree to opine as a neurologist that JFK was assuming the "Thorburn position" beginning at z226 - a condition that he opined (contrary to facts of the case that Dr. Thorburn had written about) would occur milliseconds after suffering a spinal impact.  Of course, the absence of any evidence did not deter the well-intentioned Doctor.  He then noticed the change in position of JBC's jacket relative to his shirt and concluded that this was a lapel flip caused by the bullet passing through his chest etc.

The opinions of Dr. Lattimer were met with relief by SBT proponents who could now say that they had scientific evidence that JFK was shot at z223 and that the bullet went through JBC.  This was very satisfying because now there was 3.5 seconds between the first and second shots.  The spacing between the three shots was now more than enough for Oswald to have fired all shots.

Then came Bugliosi.  He was skeptical of the Lattimer "lapel bulge" and mentions it only in passing in footnotes.  He concluded that the SBT shot occurred at z210.  But that still fit with Oswald firing all three shots.

So, it appears to me that the single bullet "fact" has had a long evolution and there are still different conclusions among SBT proponents as to what that "fact" is.

[Jim Hawthorn]

First of all, one has to prove that JBC's jacket bulges.  All we can say is that the area of white shirt that is visible increases from z222-223 and decreases from z223-224.  That is consistent with JBC moving his arm and causing movement of his jacket.  I am not sure how else one could explain the change from z222-223:

In Frame 222 there is a lot of motion blur from left to right (look at the Stemmons sign, the motorbike,...). Any contrasting line suffers from this lateral blur and that is what you are seeing - not a jacket lapel flipping out.

[Andrew Mason]

In Frame 222 there is a lot of motion blur from left to right (look at the Stemmons sign, the motorbike,...). Any contrasting line suffers from this lateral blur and that is what you are seeing - not a jacket lapel flipping out.

There is blur in z222 but it is not much different than the blur in z224:



So how can you "see" a lapel flip from z223 in z224 any better than the reverse "unflip" in z222 to z223? 

[Jim Hawthorn]

There is blur in z222 but it is not much different than the blur in z224:

There is a considerable difference in motion blur between Z222 and Z224. Look at these wider crops:

[Zeon Mason]

I agree with Jim H. that the Z224 frame is distinctly the lapel flap movement and not a motion blur effect.

I almost agree with Jerry Organs computer graphic Model of JC’s shoulder angle at approx Z223-224 with exception that imo, JCs left leg was turned right also  and adjacent to his right leg because the hat had be on the OUTSIDE of the left leg so that the bullet exiting the wrist does not go thru the hat.

I still do not understand how Andrew M. cannot see the obvious involuntary reaction  of JC to the effect of the Z224 bullet hitting JC in his back which is off center  to the right of his spinal cord thus causing the spin effect of his right shoulder abruptly turning counterclockwise and his body moving forward, followed by the involuntary clutching of his hat caused by the SAME  224 bullet that went thru his wrist.

Finally, I’m not certain if the Z 312-313 frame apparent movement of JFKs head forward Is the result of the actual film or was THIS where the crucial part of the film may be  altered in order to better convince all that the head shot came from behind the limo. ?

Because without those 2 critical frames and then as Mr Griffith pointed out, the Z film single 1/18th frame dissipation of blood splatter is NOT the same as Myttons deer head shot gif because that would require  6 frames or more approx, so now I’m suspicious again 😳

[Andrew Mason]

I still do not understand how Andrew M. cannot see the obvious involuntary reaction  of JC to the effect of the Z224 bullet hitting JC in his back which is off center  to the right of his spinal cord thus causing the spin effect of his right shoulder abruptly turning counterclockwise and his body moving forward, followed by the involuntary clutching of his hat caused by the SAME  224 bullet that went thru his wrist.

How do you tell that an action is voluntary or involuntary?  Is it not possible for JBC to turn around after z224?

That IS what JBC said he did after hearing the first shot.  There is quite a lot of consistent evidence is that JFK is reacting that way to the first shot. If that is the first shot then we have pretty good evidence from both Nellie and JBC that he was not hit in the back with it.

I am just trying to help you understand why I do not conclude that JBC is reacting there at all to the effect of a bullet passing through his body. He is reacting to the first shot, just as he said he did.

[Jack Nessan]

How do you tell that an action is voluntary or involuntary?  Is it not possible for JBC to turn around after z224?

That IS what JBC said he did after hearing the first shot.  There is quite a lot of consistent evidence is that JFK is reacting that way to the first shot. If that is the first shot then we have pretty good evidence from both Nellie and JBC that he was not hit in the back with it.

I am just trying to help you understand why I do not conclude that JBC is reacting there at all to the effect of a bullet passing through his body. He is reacting to the first shot, just as he said he did.

"That IS what JBC said he did after hearing the first shot.  There is quite a lot of consistent evidence is that JFK is reacting that way to the first shot. If that is the first shot then we have pretty good evidence from both Nellie and JBC that he was not hit in the back with it."


That is just a patently false statement. Both Nellie and JBC clearly relate that JBC was hit by the first shot. So did DPD Hargis as well as Bill Newman.

Seriously it is time to clue in Andrew.