Was Hickey's AR15 in burst mode?

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Why did Colin McLaren in THE SMOKING GUN overlook that Hickey fired a plurality of shots. 
Today i had a re-read & i found why.  In Chapter 10 THE SECRET SERVICE SECRET Colin uses the word AR15 or gun or rifle countless times.
He writes AR-15 assault weapon 10 times.
AR-15 rifle 4 times.
Automatic weapon 3 times.
Automatic rifle 2 times.
Machine gun 2 times.
Submachine gun 1 time.
In addition Colin writes the words "rapidly fired", & "more than one person shooting", & "flurry of shots", & "had almost a double sound".
But then he called it a Colt AR-15 semi-automatic assault weapon 1 time. 

The SEMI automatic version is the modern civilian version in which AUTO mode is illegal.
Hickey's Colt AR15 01 had three modes, SAFE, SEMI, AUTO.  It was an automatic.  It keeps firing until the trigger is released (if on AUTO).
Nowadays automatics are only allowed in the Defense Forces etc. Actually to save ammo they usually replace the AUTO with BURST  koz BURST fires only 3 or 4 auto shots per squeeze.

In addition the AR15 01 had a slamfire problem. 
And, i suspect that a slamfire could result in an auto-burst even in a modern civilian semi automatic.
And, i suspect that a slamfire auto-burst could continue until the ammo ran out even if a semi automatic.

So, Colin erred for 2 reasons.
Error-1.  He thort it was a semi automatic, which fired 1 shot per squeeze (ie per accidental squeeze here).
No. It was an automatic, & an accidental squeeze would fire until the trigger was released (if on AUTO).
Error-2. He overlooked that even if it were a semi auto, a slamfire might fire until out of ammo (ie per zero squeeze).  And he overlooked that that 01 model did indeed have a slamfire problem. 

What size magazine did the AR15 have? I think it was a 20 or a 25.
Hence if the accidental homicide were a slamfire incident then the whole 20 or 25 would almost certainly
have been discharged, unless there were only 6 bullets in the magazine.
And for sure it didnt have a 6-shot magazine or a 6-shot clip.
No, i dont think it was a slamfire.

Where was Colin misled?
I think the mistake started with Donahue & Menninger in MORTAL ERROR.
I will get the book tomorrow & have a look. [edit][got the book & am reading it].
Ok i read Mortal Error & there is no instance of the AR15 being called a semi-automatic. It is called an automatic at least 7 times.
However Donahue says "the Colt AR-15 is the civilian version of the M16, the automatic rifle that was used as the primary American infantry weapon in Vietnam".
In fact the AR15 preceded the M16.  And 8500 AR15's were purchased by the USAF, hence it wasnt simply the civilian version. McLaren i think said that Hickey's AR15 was probly one of the USAF AR15's.  But Donahue on page 219 says that Mullen told him that MacDonald had sold the Secret Service on the AR-15 the prototype of the gun, & Donahue says that it was one of these newly issued rifles that was used in Dallas.  Which suggests that the Secret Service got their own batch.  In any case i think that the civilian version of the AR15 was for many years a fully automatic. I dont know how McLaren convinced himself that Hickey's AR15 was a semi-automatic.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Years ago it was said that Hickey's AR15 could not have been high enough for the slug to clear the windshield of Queen Mary.
They drew the necessary slug trajectory based on the impact point on JFK's head being 10" below the top of the windshield of the JFK limo.
Here on Moorman's polaroid taken at about Z313 i have drawn a red line from the rollbar passing 10" over my estimated impact point.
The rollbar is at the same height as the top of the windshield, or it might be say 1" higher, when on level ground.
The Queen Mary windshield is 60" above the road, the JFK limo windshield is 59" above the road. 
Do u reckon that the red line passes throo the top of the Queen Mary windshield?  I reckon not. 

I have drawn 4 black lines that are likely candidates for a proper windshield to windshield line.
The bottom line looks much too low.  The top line looks to be angled too high.
The middle 2 lines look the most realistic.
Anyhow, the vertical clearances tween lines & impact point are 3" 4" 5" & 6".  I am happy to go with 4" or 5".  Not 10". 
So, later today i will do a proper drawing of the necessary traject.
They in their stupid drawing draw the impact point 49" above the road, my drawing will adopt 54" or even 55".

The 4 white lines are my estimates of the necessary slug trajects for the 4 black lines, each of the 4 trajects clearing each of the 4 needed pseudo Queen Mary windshields by 1/8".

I scaled my distances based on JFK's head being 10" long, ie the size of that yellow rectangle.
Whenever i mention heights & levels i am assuming that Elm St is horizontal, ie level, ie zero slope. Much simpler than juggling the 3.1 deg grade.

Notice that the picket fence is a sniper-free zone.
Notice that the grassy knoll is an Arnold-free zone.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Here is the silly drawing silly them used years ago to debunk the Hickey accidental homicide scenario.
The broken line shows their silly estimate of the traject for the slug. It is based on the impact point on JFK's head being a silly 49" above the road.
And they i think try to show that Hickey would have  to be standing on the seat, in which case the AR15 could not have shot JFK.
The red line is their 59" to 60" windshield to windshield line if that line passes 10" above the headshot level, as shown this requires the Queen Mary windshield to be at 76" not 60".

Actually the drawing was done by Donahue (see page 206 Mortal Error), he used it to show that the traject accorded with the angle of the headwound, & to help prove that the traject could clear the windshield, which he thort needed to have Hickey standing on the seat, koz Donahue accepted the WCR that Hess & Eisenhardt's 52.78" estimate for the height of the top of JFK's head was accurate, which it aint.

I have drawn a more realistic version of the needed trajectory showing that the AR15 didn’t have to be very high.
I have scaled the drawing so that 2 mm equals 1" vertically, & 10 mm equals 1' horizontally, when i magnify the drawing 200% (on my screen).
The critical thing is that the Queen Mary windshield is 60" high, & the JFK limo windshield is 59" high (unloaded).
And i estimated 54" for the impact height (not their silly 49")(i could have used 55").
I drew Hickey 74" high, standing on the floor 10" above the road (i wouldnt be surprised if Hickey was even taller than that).
Hickey's head & JFK's head are the 2 ovals (heads are usually say 9.5")(JFK's is drawn close to 11", my bad).
I drew the rollbar level with the windshield, but in photos it looks to be say 1" higher than the windshield.
As shown the AR15 had to be 3" or more above the Queen Mary windshield.   
The orange extension of the traject shows the remnant slug continuing on the original angle/line, which hits the windshield at about the crack.

However the remnant slug had to veer inside JFK's head about 5.1 deg in the horizontal. Shot-2 made a dent say 2" right of center, shot-1 made a crack 7" left of center, & JFK's head is 7.5' from the crack, hence the difference in angle tween shot-1 & shot-2 is 9" in 90", ie 10%, ie 5.1 deg. This is based on the burst being vertical, ie based on the AR15 swinging naturally upwards due to recoil.  If there was any horizontal component of the burst then that would add to or diminish that there 5.1 deg.  Hickey might have been swinging to his right during the burst, we dont know.  But tests have shown that a hollow point bullet can veer about 6 deg in a short length of ballistic gel if it firstly goes throo an angled solid, & JFK's skull was indeed an angled solid. 

Shot-2 dented the chrome trim, & the blue traject shows that that slug could have passed under the rollbar.
I prefer that the AR15 was actually say 10" above the windshield which puts it at about the level of the drawn AR15, in which case shot-2 passed over the rollbar.
And as can be seen if my Hickey held the AR15 at chest height it would be that there 10" above the windshield.
If he lifted the AR15 up to his chin (to aim/fire) then the AR15 would be many inches higher.

If i went to more trouble i could draw a more accurate drawing allowing for the cars sitting lower when loaded. Queen Mary probly sank about 2" with the wt of the 9 big guys. Plus during the burst it was braking which would have lowered the front an inch & raised the back an inch. It was this braking that made Hickey stumble forward over the jump-seat, & shoot, & then quickly fall back onto his seat.  We know that he immediately fell back onto his seat koz we can see him half sitting half standing (his usual pozzy) in his seat in a 2019 Bronson frame a fraction of a second after Z313.  Plus this same frame shows a very blurred AR15 swinging very quickly up at about 45 deg.  The inferior 2017 Bronson frame in Robin Unger's gallery merely shows a blotchy AR15 standing at 45 deg, it doesnt show the rapid movement.  Anyhow, where were we, the JFK limo sank a bit less than Queen Mary koz it had only 4 guys & 2 gals.  Agent Hill was on the tarmac during Z313.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

How did Hess & Eisenhardt come up with their silly 52.78" to the top of the seated JFK head?
I guess that the silly 49" height of the impact is based on that silly 52.78".  In Reply#8 & in other threads i show photos of the motorcade that show that earlier in the day JFK's head was 2" lower than the 59" to 60" windshield to windshield line for the JFK limo & Queen Mary, ie it was at 57".  And i used 54" for my impact height, based on the loss of 3" made up of 2" due to JFK leaning & then 1" below the top of head for the impact.   57" is 4.22" higher than the H&E 52.78".  52.78" to 49" is a loss of 3.78", compared to my estimated loss of 3".
And the Secret Service measured a head height of 62" in the back of Queen Mary, that’s 2" higher than the Queen Mary windshield.
This suggests that the floor height in Queen Mary was much higher than in the JFK limo (i adopted 10" in Queen Mary).
Anyhow i don’t know how H&E could have come up with 52.78".  It was only a theoretical estimate, koz the JFK limo had been altered earlier in 1964.  And it was based on JFK's bum sinking into the seat a bit.  And that there 49" should have been at least 4" higher, ie 53", & as i said me myself i adopted 54".

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

The arc traced out by the say 6-shot burst might have been as shown. 
What is fairly certain is that Hickey shot-1 hit JFK's head (but we can never rule out that the head-shot was last). 
The remaining 5 shots angled higher due to the recoil.  Hickey did not have a firm grip, the burst was an accident & not expected.
Strangely the vertical angles of shot-1 to shot-2 to shot-3 to shot-4 to shot-5 to shot-6 get closer together.
This tells me that Hickey was falling forward during the burst, had he been falling backwards his fall would have added to the natural risings.
But the drawn angles etc shown cant be trusted, koz that there pix doesnt show the proper perspective.
In addition, we dont know exactly how far right of center JFK's head was. 
We dont know whether Queen Mary was exactly behind the JFK limo.
We dont know how far left of center the AR15 was.
But for sure the angles of the vertical risings get smaller.
It would have taken 0.7 sec for the burst, if the AR15 fired at 400 rpm, ie 6.7 rps.
During that time Hickey would have had time to react & firm his grip. 
But i think that the closing of the angles was due mainly to falling forward.
Colin McLaren in THE SMOKING GUN mentions a witness who said that Hickey fired whilst falling forward.
Hickey stumbled forward onto Donnelly sitting in the jump-seat who blocks his fall, we know that he blocks his fall koz one of the Bronson frames shows Hickey a fraction of a second later has fallen backwards to his usual half sitting half standing pozzy in his seat.
If Zapruder's film runs at 18.3 fps & if the AR15 fires at 6.7 rps then Hickey shot-1 was at Z313, shot-2 was at Z316, shot-3 at Z319, shot-4 at Z321, shot-5 at Z324, shot-6 at Z327.
And at 11.1 mph the limo would have traveled 13 ft.
To ears close by the burst would sound like a flurry of shots, to ears at a distance it would sound like 1 strange shot mixed with its own echoes.
Agent Hill on the phone to Bobby Kennedy ----- THERE HAS BEEN AN ACCIDENT.

This perspective from Dale Myers' cartoon footage nearly shows Hickey's view from Queen Mary, i would rather that it showed the AR15's view.
A perspective from the AR15's view would show the star for shot-1 at the same height as the star for the crack next to the mirror if that perspective etc was based on my estimated traject in the drawn side-view in my previous Reply#37.
But i drew that estimated traject to show that the AR15 didnt have to be held very high to achieve a headshot, & i reckon that the actual level of the AR15 was much higher, but not as high as the viewpoint shown in this here pix, this viewpoint is high up at about Hickey's eye-level, actual (the AR15) was at chest level.
Why did Myers draw the limo partly into the left lane? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

MORTAL ERROR 1992 Menninger (& Donahue)
Floyd Boring (& no-one else, except me) suggested that if set on auto then Hickey's AR15 could have fired 2 or 3 shots. 
A plurality of shots accords better with witnesses.
But it amazes me that Donahue & later McLaren both ignored the possibility, or the probability, in fact the certainty, that Hickey fired many shots, i say 5 or 6 shots.
Donahue is wrong, the selector lever has to from SAFE be pushed down a quarter of a turn to SEMI, & then across to horizontal again to AUTO. It aint pushed up to SEMI.
And a simply hurried pull on the selector will i reckon select AUTO mostly. 

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Donahue drew the silly traject (with Hickey standing on the seat) to try to duplicate the apparent angle of the head-wound, not to try to prove that the windshield made the head-shot impossible.

Note that in the Plan View Donahue should have JFK's head nearly on the center-line, not hard over to the right of the limo.
Donahue places Queen Mary in line with the JFK limo. It would suit my 6-shot burst better if Queen Mary were off-line a little right of the JFK limo.