Latest Poll numbers:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jaw-dropping-poll-majority-of-republicans-blame-capitol-insurrection-on-joe-biden/ar-BB1cBSCR?ocid=msedgdhpOK. At first glance, these statistics look pretty disheartening. They are certainly incredible. But the key is that 13% of the Republicans think that Trump is “A great deal to blame is a big deal” for the Capitol riot. If your average Pro-Trump politician was generally winning general elections 70% to 30%, this would be no big deal. But it’s usually much smaller. 52% to 48% or 56% to 44%. So, having 13% of your voter’s switch sides, is pretty catastrophic. That turns comfortable wins into loses, 45.5% to 54.5% or 49.5% to 50.5% loses.
I did imagine, before seeing this poll, that politicians like Ted Cruz wouldn’t even be able to get past the primary. I have overestimated the astuteness of the Republican voters by a great amount. Clearly, we can expect Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley to win their next primary. But the general election, that’s a different story. So, assuming this 13% don’t conclude in the next two years, that they were duped by fake news, these candidates are going to miss their 13% of the 2020 Republican base and I would expect them to lose their next general election to the Democratic candidate they will face. And in any case, their Presidential aspirations are done.
Another curious thing is that 2% of the Democrats find that Biden is a great deal to blame for the Capitol riots. It is well to remember that not all Democrats are white wine drinking, liberal minded people. To some of them, Donald Trump is a rock star. There is a great more diversity between the most extreme Democrats, or the most extreme Republicans, than there is between your average Democrat and your average Republican.
We know this Trump juggernaut is still being overrated by most people, Democrats as well as Republicans. By November 2020, it had eroded enough over the previous four years to cause him from barely winning an election (with the benefit of the Electoral College just putting him over the top) to losing by a pretty good margin, about the size as the average margin of victory in a Presidential Election. So, we see the following pattern.
November 2016 - Trump gets almost as many votes as Clinton, allowing a very close victory.
; four years past, with the last 8 months of ineffective leadership on dealing with COVID-19 and the big hit on the economy largely caused by COVID-19.
November 2020 – Trump loses by a fairly good margin. Two Republican senatorial candidates in Georgia get the most votes, as to be expected, but not quite 50%.
; Trump contests the election, with unsupported claims, which are increasingly shown to be false, like by manual recounts and court rejections.
; Trump is recorded over the phone threatening and cajoling the Georgia Secretary of State “11,780 votes”.
; Both Republican Candidates supports the Trump narrative, the election was stolen.
January 5 2021 – Both Republicans lose their election. Very close, but they lose. An amazing turn around in just two months, going against long historical trends in Georgia.
; Trump instigates a riot, which he was clearly calling upon for weeks that storms the Capitol.
While the decrease in Trump support is not near as large as one would expect, I am still confident that it will be catastrophic, for both Trump himself and any candidates that he endorses and who endorse him, and his campaign to take back the 2020 election.
Finally, it is also sobering, that the long-term survival of Democracy, is saved by a small sliver of voters who can recognize that they have been in error, about one in eight. If this sliver was much smaller, Democracy would be in serious peril. If democracy in America survives for the next hundred years, it will owe its survival to this small sliver, this one in eight voters, I suspect in both the Republican and Democratic parties, who won’t just stay the course even when their party runs off the rails. Let us give pause, and thank, this one in eight Americans. They are truly vital Americans. I wish there were more of them.
