Why the first shot missed

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

In my model, the strike point for the Max Holland/Lost Bullet theory is on the outer arm of the traffic light assembly.

The seated shooter's left hand would have to hold the rifle with the trigger-guard housing to be clear of the pipes. Also the center of the rifle butt-plate is about four inches above the un-artictulated right shoulder. Unless the right shoulder rises some distance while pointing a rifle down, the shooter would have to standing.

This is academic as there is too much against a first shot as early as Max Holland has proposed.

Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.

[Dan O'meara]

Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.

Hi Marjan,

You say at z203 " two standing agents are starting to look back to Oswald"

Below is a close up of z207, four frames after z203. It's the last frame we see most of the agents in. I'm sure you'll agree that not one is looking back towards the TSBD, so I don't understand where you are getting the idea from that they are looking back:



From your notes can you reveal where you are getting the idea from there is a shot before z133.

Oh yeah...I asked you before to explain why none of the agents has reacted to a loud, explosive noise for over four seconds. What are your ideas on that?

Thought you might like to clear these points up 

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Thought you might like to clear these points up 

Yes i did answer in your other thread. The Agents were confused etc.
Anyhow if u are correct that the first shot was later then there would still be a long delay to say Z255 if that is when the Altgen-6 pix is taken.
Conversely if u are correct then there would have to be a very short delay of say 3.0 sec (which is less than an acceptable say 5.0 sec) tween shot1 at say Z??? & shot2 at say Z218 (some say i think Z222).

[Charles Collins]

I revised and corrected the annotation for the bottom image.. This should make it easier of others, and myself too, to visualize.

Sorry, Charles. I haven't forgotten your request. My placement of the pipes is a visual guess. Obviously use at own risk.

I sent the Sixth Museum a request for measurements, and the curator, who's really helpful, told me just now that he will get back to me with true measurements when they access that area for maintenance. I'll PM those to you when I get them. Meanwhile you can use what I am using or build off it.

The westward pipe is a simple vertical. As I have it, the total height of the coupling is 3 1/4". I have the bottom of the coupling 8 13/16" above the floor (just make it 8 3/4" or 9", whatever). The coupling doesn't interfere with a hypothetical shooter; I put the coupling in there for the sake of completeness and haven't bothered with the bolts.

For the east pipe, I drew straight lines and angled them and placed them where I thought the center of the pipe ran. I then used SketchUp's "Follow-Me" tool to create the pipe by having a 2" circle follow the "path" of the lines. The Sketchup Tool decided I needed two elbows at each of the two bends. The closest any part of the first bend is to the floor is 13".

There is something wrong with my measurements. If the pipes are 2", then the planks have to be about 3". Or the planks are correct and the pipes needs to be a bit wider. Anyway, the key is how the westward pipe is relative to the window's masonry opening, which I think is fairly close now. That's the pipe that interferes.

I am trying to visualize the west conduit only, not concerned with the east conduit at this time. If I understand the meaning of your measurements, the west conduit would be slanting slightly away from the south wall as it rises towards the seventh floor. The difference being about 3-1/2” further away from the south wall at the top (9-1/8” minus the 5-5/8” at the 6th floor). It also appears to slant away from the east wall slightly by about 2-7/8” (34-7/8” minus the 32” estimate by Jerry). All of my estimated distances are to the nearest outside surfaces to the respective walls. Does the above seem to be reasonably accurate given the information that we currently have? Please let me know. Thanks!

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Notice that Holland's drawing is wrong. The correct line of fire goes throo the collar for the 2 guy rods. A multi ricochet involving collar rods pipe (& even the signals) would explain the lead hitting the pavement & the 2 copper fragments ending up in the limo, & 1 fragment glancing off JFK's head.
If Oswald fired a clean miss, there would be a big crater in the road. And no good mechanism for 2 copper fragments to end up in the limo.

My above feb2021 wordage was early in my jfk accidental homicide study. I need to bring things up to date.
Today i know that Oswald's shot-1 was at about pseudo Z112, & ricocheted offa the western guyrod of the signal arm at Z113.
Holland said Z103 i think -- i am happy to split the difference.
Holland i think reckoned a ricochet offa the actual signals.
Today i know that the present owner of the original signals (Christopher) wrote that there is no bullet hole or dent in the signals.
Today i know that the main remnant slug of shot-1 made a keyhole shaped hole in the floor of the limo -- between the Connally's jumpseats.
Today i know that the lead splatter hit jfk in the top back right of his head (vizible in xrays).
Re my wordage that Oswald's shot-2 was at Z218 -- today i reckon it was at Z215-216, & hit jfk & Connally at Z218-219.
Hickey's accidental autoburst of at least 4 shots of his AR15 was at say Z300-Z312 -- hit jfk's head at Z312-313.

Re the pipes at the SN affecting Oswald's shot-1 -- i think the pipes might have affected his shot-2 moreso than his shot-1.

[Zeon Mason]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

[Charles Collins]

The pipes could be the issue if one of them
had hot water flowing thru it.

The SE window gunmans exact firing stance is unclear to me still (  crazy after all these years heh)

Maybe the gunman was sitting on the box at first and then burned himself as he fired his first shot , at approx z223. ?

But the shooters reaction from the pipe burn perhaps had  only a slight effect on his aim
so that the 223 shot aimed at the head , instead hit JFK in the back. So there was no missed 1st shot, just a slightly off target shot that still hit the body of JFK.

After this pipe burn (or obstruction)of the pipe , did the gunman take up some other kind of firing stance before he fired off 2 more shots rapidly together about 4 secs later?

If it were not for Harold Normans description of hearing the clack clack noise which suggests a bolt action rifle, then the 4 sec spacing of all 3 shots that Norman also  demonstrates , would indicate that a semi auto rifle was more probable than a bolt action rifle to be able to fire 3 shots rapidly, especially the last 2 which most witness heard “back to back”.

 An obstruction causing the gunman to miss would fit nicely with a theory of semi auto rifle being used and the gunman firing 3 rapid shots. The gunman , having had his aimed head shot at Z220 thrown off from either a pipe or other obstruction when he pulled the trigger at Z222 ,  adjusted his firing position slightly afterwards, while still tracking the target with his good quality scope mounted correctly on his good quality semi auto rifle.

He fired about 4.8 secs after his missed head shot at Z223 and fired 2 shots rapidly at Z313.

The 2nd shot was the head shot at Z313, followed immediately by the 3rd shot a split sec after Z313, which because of “muzzle rise” from  firing rapidly, caused that shot to fly over JFKs head, and over to the curb near to Tague (by the Triple underpass)

A projectile fired from a semi auto rifle with different composition of metals than the MC rifle 6.5mm bullet, thus may explain the anomaly of metallic element analyzed from the curb not matching the typical 6.5 mm bullet from the MC rifle (in Tom Aleya film lifted from the 6th floor by Lt. Day) and alleged to be the rifle fired by the SW gunman by the WC.

It may also explain CE 399 MC bullet  having been substituted for a bullet that came from Gov Connallys leg, ( or replacing the one found on a stretcher) which bullet was of different caliber than 6.5 mm or was not  a type which could have been fired by an MC rifle even if it were 6.5 mm, because of cartridge size.

The most stable position (by far) available at that location would have been sitting on box D and using the Rolling Readers box on top of box C as a support for his left forearm. Based on my experiments, the western most pipe (electrical conduit) would have been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). The corner of the other Rolling Readers box that was sitting on the window ledge would have also been a factor for an early shot (~Z133). While sitting on box D neither the conduit or the corner of the window box should have been a factor for a shot much later than ~Z133.