Why the first shot missed

[Zeon Mason]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

[Charles Collins]

If the deflection off a tree or the traffic light pole is not the reason for a missed shot, and it’s an early 1st shot somewhere between Z133- Z170, then why no significant  reactions of SS agents looking back to the TEBD in the Z film in that sequence of frames to indicate they heard anything?

The SS agents Seem to be fixated watching Umbrella man and  DC man up till Z207 before the sign blocks the view to them until they are seen again post Z 313.

Only a sight movement by SS agent Hickey at about Z143-45 and it is uncertain if it may just be readjustment due to limo movement causing inertia effect on Hickey which he had to counter balance.

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Let’s say the shooter was sitting on the box position and keeping his body behind the wall so he wasn’t seen in Hughes film.

If he was sitting on the box, and sitting up straight, he would be hidden from view by the Hughes camera, Brennan, Edwards, and Fischer. Brennan testified that he appeared to leave the window for a short time (several times). I suggest that he was simply sitting up straight.



He would still have to move himself from that position to stick the rifle out the window and adjust both himself and the rifle as he tries to track and aim at the moving target.

Simply leaning forward, while still seated, and lifting the rifle from his lap area (which would be out of sight to people in the plaza) to his shoulder and begin to track and aim. Either Edward or Fischer (or both) testified they saw him leaning forward. So, it appears to me that he was still seated on the box (and leaning forward) as the motorcade was entering Dealey Plaza.



In that moment of readjustment and in the state of anticipation / anxiety he was experiencing, could it be just an inadvertent squeezing the trigger because he already had his finger on the trigger before he had acquired the target in either the iron sights or the scope reticle?

Yes, it absolutely could have happened that way. An accidental discharge can happen to anybody. We have a bullet hole in our dining room table, chair, and floor (patched) to prove it. It was an accidental discharge that happened to a gunsmith (also a gun safety instructor and professional outdoorsman) who we have known since school days. He was helping us sell some guns that my wife inherited. And he was told that the gun was loaded. So, I have no doubt that it could have happened to the assassin.

[Joe Elliott]

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.

[Charles Collins]

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet.

But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

I don't know. But all of the competitors had practice at shooting at a moving target. So even if the answer is zero for the 1908 Olympic competitors, Oswald might miss by more than any of them. He had training at shooting at stationary targets. So Oswald, I would believe, could hit a moving target with a slow angular velocity, like at z-222 or z-312. But Oswald might miss by five feet or more at a high angular velocity target at z-153, which could miss the limousine, since JFK was not sitting in the center of the limousine.

In any case, if anyone can find statistics on what good shooters can do with a high angular velocity shot, of 3.2 degrees per second or higher, at distances of 129 feet, or 75 feet, I would like to hear them. And not just assume that at 75 feet, one is so close, one is bound to hit a human size target, even without being able to aim properly. I don't buy that notion.

in 1950, when an attempt was made on Truman's life, Secret Service agents were firing several shots at the main would be assassin from ranges of around 30 to 40 feet. Using handguns. And all of them missing. Except for one morally wounded policeman who got a fatal hit on the assassin from 40 feet away.

When firing under difficult conditions, like using a handgun, or using a rifle on a target with too high an angular velocity, it's not easy to hit a human size target. At 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Or even 40 feet. Misses are quite possible.

The distance at z-153 was more like 129 feet, not 75 feet

I am only questioning your calculations of the running deer Olympic shots. Here is why:
 
From your post:

“1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft”

Yet the description you posted from Wikipedia clearly states the targets were at 75-feet.


But the problem is, if the angular velocity is too great, a shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target. If the shooter can't keep the sights lined up on the target, even one the size of a human, or a deer, I would expect them to miss at 330 feet. Or 129 feet. Or 75 feet. Even at 75 feet you need luck to hit a target of that size when you can't keep the sights lined up on the target as it moves.

Why would you assume that he couldn’t keep the sights lined up on a moving target? I have read that LHO was a member of a shooting club in Russia. And that they could only own shotguns (no rifles). I don’t claim to know what type of shooting they did with their shotguns. But a common and popular type of shooting was at “clay pigeons”. Also called skeet shooting or trap shooting depending on the specifics of how it was set up. Hitting a 110 mm diameter flying target at various and unpredictable angles of flight requires considerable shooting skills and quick reactions. Here is an exerpt regarding LHO’s reaction speed from page 211 of Robert Oswald’s book “Lee” that I find interesting:

I have some idea of the speed of Lee’s reflexes, both from my general observation of him while we were growing up and specifically because of a game we used to play. Sometimes Lee and I would walk up to each other and fake an unexpected punch, to test each other’s reactions. I discovered from this game that Lee had very rapid reflexes.

LHO reportedly delighted in situations where he could “try to prove” his self-perceived “superiority”. I can imagine that his “very rapid reflexes” would have come in handy during any shooting activities he might have had in the shooting club in Russia. Whether they were shooting at birds or rabbits or skeet or whatever, he most likely would have done well shooting at moving targets.

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963. There is no doubt that the higher angular velocity of an early shot from the sniper’s nest in Dealey Plaza would have made it a much more challenging shot than the two shots that hit JFK. But, again, I think it would have taken more than just that to cause it to miss the limo entirely.

[Gerry Down]

Also, LHO reportedly practiced by dry-firing at moving cars from the screened-in porch in New Orleans during the summer of 1963.

Marina only said he was dry firing the weapon, not that he was pointing it at cars.

[Charles Collins]

Marina only said he was dry firing the weapon, not that he was pointing it at cars.

From page 1004 (of my Kindle version) of “Reclaiming History” by Vincent Bugliosi:

One evening at the end of August Marina returned from a twilight stroll with June and found Lee on their screened-in side porch, kneeling on one knee, aiming his rifle into the street and working the bolt—dry firing. 1365.

Footnote 1365. ​1 H 21–22, WCT Marina N. Oswald; McMillan, Marina and Lee, pp.451–452; CE 1154, 22 H 190.

I don’t remember if someone else wrote that there were actually passing cars in the street in New Orleans in 1963, or if I just assumed that. Either way, Marina did say that he spent a lot of time doing this on the darkened porch. If anyone wants to think that he didn’t aim at any passing cars during that time, that is their prerogative. But I have a differing opinion.

[Gerry Down]

From page 1004 (of my Kindle version) of “Reclaiming History” by Vincent Bugliosi:

One evening at the end of August Marina returned from a twilight stroll with June and found Lee on their screened-in side porch, kneeling on one knee, aiming his rifle into the street and working the bolt—dry firing. 1365.

Footnote 1365. ​1 H 21–22, WCT Marina N. Oswald; McMillan, Marina and Lee, pp.451–452; CE 1154, 22 H 190.

I don’t remember if someone else wrote that there were actually passing cars in the street in New Orleans in 1963, or if I just assumed that. Either way, Marina did say that he spent a lot of time doing this on the darkened porch. If anyone wants to think that he didn’t aim at any passing cars during that time, that is their prerogative. But I have a differing opinion.

Interesting.

Though from that porch, which is recessed back off the house, I'm not sure how long he'd be able to track each car as it passed in the street.

It would make an interesting experiment to see how many seconds would he have to track each car before his view of each car became obstructed by the corners of the houses to his left and right on his side of the street.

I'd imagine cars would be traveling slow enough on that street.