Why the first shot missed

[Zeon Mason]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

[Joe Elliott]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

[Charles Collins]

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

There was a 2/3rd majority of witnesses who heard the 3 shots spaced so closely together that do not  match a 9-10 seconds time interval.

There was no physical evidence from the light fixture or pole of the traffic light that supports the z133 1st shot premise.

If the shooter was visually surveying his field of fire in preparation, as the motorcade started up Houston st, then he surely was aware of the possible obstacles, the tree and the light pole, so all the more reason that he MAY have decided that his best opportunity was to not begin shooting until after the JFK limo has gone PAST both traffic pole AND the tree. Which therefore makes z223 a very probable FIRST shot.

There is a slight movement by SS agent Hickey in the back seat of the follow up car which occurs approx Z143-144

Virgie Racheley is a witness who claims seeing something strike the pavement beside the JFK limo.

These 2 witnesses may possibly have seen or be reacting to the slight noise of a suppressed shot from Daltex building that missed the JFK limo

Would not the SE 6th floor window gunman have be standing to get the angle necessary for a shot as early as z133?

The steep angle to the Z133 location does (from a sitting position) put the corner of the window sill box in the way. Max Holland proposes a standing position for an early shot. However, a sitting position with support for the left arm is much more stable. And I find it hard to believe that the assassin would intentionally switch from a standing position to a sitting position during the few seconds available to him to fire the rifle. I don’t believe that he had an opportunity to practice his intended shots while holding the rifle because this would have potentially been seen by the spectators below on the street and given his intentions away before he could execute them.

When I discovered the interference from the box corner with my 3D computer model, my first thoughts were that he was probably tracking the target with his rifle (to get it aimed properly) and the corner of the box interfered, causing an inadvertent shot to miss badly. And that is why I started this thread a long time ago. Lately, I have been experimenting further and have some interesting thoughts that I plan to share soon. So, stay tuned…

[Charles Collins]

On a thread about: "Why the first shot missed", it should be mentioned that the first shot may have missed because it had the highest angular velocity of the three shots from the TSBD sniper's nest.

First shot, at z-153: Angular velocity is 4.8 degrees per second.
Second shot, at z-222: Angular velocity is 1.9 degrees per second.
Third shot, at z-312: Angular velocity is 0.58 degrees per second.

The first shot had an angular velocity that was 2.5 times greater than the second.
The second shot had an angular velocity that was 3 times greater than the third.

Naturally, one might expect the first shot to miss.

How high is the angular velocity of 4.8 degrees per second for a rifle shooter? Pretty high. In the 1908 Olympics, where I could get the most information about, the world's best shooters at moving targets were shooting at a target that only moved 3.2 degrees per second.

A shot at z-133 would have an even higher angular velocity than the one at z-153.
A shot before z-133? Higher than the angular velocity of a shot at z-133.

One does not have to hypothesis that Oswald missed the first shot because he was getting himself into hot water. Which he certainly was. Just the difficulty of an early shot is explanation enough.

I have made previous posts that address this in more detail. On can check out the first post made for each of the following two threads:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,3570.0.html

How to Calculate the Angular Velocities of a Target
https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2640.msg93376.html#msg93376

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

[Charles Collins]

In this photo, do the two arrows point to the "crease" on the box that some people thought might have been made to support the rifle while aiming?




Or, was there another "crease" or dent elsewhere on one of the boxes that could be what those people were describing?

[Joe Elliott]

Yes, I agree. And I replied to your thread accordingly. There are numerous factors to consider.

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.

[Charles Collins]

Yes. But on this thread, we had twenty pages on 'Why the first shot missed' without the high angular velocity of the first shot even being mentioned. While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason. That factor, by itself, means that we should expect for Oswald to miss the first shot. But have a much better chance with his second and third shots, where the angular velocity was much lower.

While there may be many factors to consider, in my mind, the high angular velocity is the dominant reason.

The angular velocity is certainly a reason that the target could be missed. However, I find it impossible to believe that angular velocity could alone cause someone with LHO’s rifle training and abilities to miss the limo entirely. I believe that interference of some sort had to be involved.



Here is your description of the running deer competition with a sentence highlighted by me:

Running Deer Shooting at the 1908 Olympics.

In years past, they used to have a ‘Running Deer Shooting’ competition at the Olympics. The best thing about this competition was that they did not actually shot at real live deer.

The Wikipedia article on this gives the most complete information on the 1908 Olympics.
The range was 330 feet. The target would appear for only 4 seconds at a distance of 75 feet.

The target had an outline of a life size deer, with three concentric circles. The inner circle would could for 4 points. The next circle for 3. And the outermost circle for 2. A shot outside the largest circle, but on the outline of the deer (but not the rear part of the deer) would count as 1 point.

My father once told me, that in deer hunting, you don’t want to hit the rear of the deer. This would allow the deer to still get away but would wound it seriously enough that it would likely die in the coming days. Better to miss the deer altogether than to do that. Hence, I would guess, the somewhat strange scoring system.

Everyone would get a single shot (in the Single Shot competition) during a 4 second pass and would get 10 shots altogether.

The speed of the target was 18.75 feet per second or 12.8 mph. This is pretty slow. At 67 years old, I could run faster than that. I’m certain a real deer would run well over 30 mph. I suspect that they did not use real running deer solely for humane reasons.

Still, these were shots designed to test the best rifle shooters, at moving targets, in the world. So, I imagine they were pretty challenging.

In the real competition, the winner got 25 points, with several others just behind. So, an average shot would end up either in the “2” circle or the “3” circle. This competition appears to have been challenging because the three lowest scores were 11, 6 and 3 points.

The Angular velocity of the 1908 target varied from 3.21 to 3.26 degrees per second. Let’s compare this to the angular velocity of possible shots at Dealey Plaza. All the shots are listed from the highest to the lowest angular velocities:

The following chart lists:
     Angular Velocity of the Target, in degrees per second (dps),
     Tangential Velocity of the Target, in feet per second (fps),
     Distance to the Target, in feet (ft)


                                       Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man   at z-312:    6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke         at z-312:    5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft
TSBD position                   at z-153:    4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft

TSBD position                   at z-222:    1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                   at z-312:    0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Obviously, Oswald was attempting a shot at z-153, with a higher angular velocity, than the best shooters in the world in 1908 had to attempt. No wonder he missed the limousine. A shot from the Grassy Knoll would have even been tougher, at least the target would have had an even higher angular velocity.

Admittedly, the Angular Velocity does not take into account distances. Perhaps a superior comparison is from the Tangential Velocity of the Target. So the following chart as the previous, except it is ordered by the Tangential Velocity:


                                                        Ang. Vel.    Tang. Vel.    Distance

1908 Running Deer:                           3.2  dps     18.4 fps      330 ft
TSBD position                  at z-153:     4.8  dps     11.9 fps      142 ft
Grassy Knoll, Badge Man  at z-312:     6.2  dps     10.8 fps      100 ft
Grassy Knoll, Smoke        at z-312:     5.1  dps      9.7 fps      109 ft

TSBD position                  at z-222:     1.9  dps      6.4 fps      192 ft
TSBD position                  at z-312:     0.58 dps      2.7 fps      265 ft


Either by using Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity, the two shots that hit from Oswald’s position are clearly the easiest of shots.

The 1908 data is not totally satisfactory. It does not give the size of the scoring circles. Nor the size of the outline of the deer and exactly which part of this outline was out of bounds. Still, it’s the best I have found. And the rifles available in 1908 would be roughly equivalent of Oswald’s Carcano rifle. If anyone has any data that is as good or better I would be interested in seeing a post to it. Particularly one that would show if Angular Velocity or Tangential Velocity is a better measure of difficulty for shots under 200 yards.

I question your calculations simply because it appears to me that you incorrectly have the distance of the running deer competition shots at 330-feet instead of 75-feet.

The competitors were shooting at a target much smaller than the JFK limo. How many of the 1908 olympics shots do you suppose would have missed something the size of the limo?