To be clear, my "theory" is that what actually occurred is what a statistically highly significant proportion of the witnesses said they observed.
But when one investigates your witness pool, we find a few "two-shot" witnesses who place the "president slumping" as the first of the two shots they discuss (the second is usually the head shot). You interpret the "first" shot among those two shots as the first of your three-shot scenario with two to follow (although those witnesses don't support that), whereas I see their "slumping shot" as the second in a three-shot scenario and the one shot before the head shot. I only suggest they've failed to remember or place the first shot (which I believe missed), which was unexpected and which many witnesses took to be something that was not a gunshot.
Yes, although the evidence suggests that the first shot was a bit earlier, likely z192-195. Hickey never said that he looked at the President before turning rearward. He said he looked at the President only after turning to the front, which he estimated was 2 or 3 seconds after turning rearward.
But the photographic evidence shows Hickey turned rearward near-to-or-just-after the moment of the "slumping" shot in the Z220s in which both Kennedy and Connally appear to react simultaneously. We don't see him in the Z220s but he is facing forward in Z206 (and appears to be similarly positions in Z213) so it's likely to me that he turned rearward only after the second shot at Z223.
In z206 Hickey's face appears to be facing somewhat toward the right.
So it's more likely to you that Hickey cannot see the President in Z206 but can detect a hair flutter that's out of his line-of-sight in Z276 a second after he is photographed in Altgens facing rearward.
I can't tell where his eyes are looking. So he may be just getting up and beginning his turn to the right and rear. He turned forward in response to a "disturbance" in the President's car (the only thing that fits that description is JBC shouting "oh, no, no, no" which Nellie said he uttered before the second shot.
The second shot which you place near the early-Z270s. You also claim that the Governor yelled those words as well as "My God, they're going to kill us all" between the Z270s and the head shot.
Hickey did say that when he turned forward and looked at the President he saw the President had "slumped forward and to his left". So he is yet another witness who recalled that the president had reacted to the first shot.
I doubt Hickey would have admitted to be being turned around from the President after he had heard the sound of the second shot (at Z223) and saw the President lurch forward in response to it ("the hair on the right side of his head flew forward"). I think he shifted the time he was turned around from after the second shot to before the second shot.
Here is the full account of what he saw and heard as set out in his Nov. 30/63 report:- After a very short distance I heard a loud report which sounded like a firecracker. It appeared to come from the right and rear and seemed to me to be at ground level. I stood up and looked to my right and rear in an attempt to identify it. Nothing caught my attention except people shouting and cheering. A disturbance in 679X caused me to look forward toward the President's car. Perhaps 2 or 3 seconds elapsed from the time I looked to the rear and then looked at the President. He was slumped forward and to his left, and was straightening up to an almost erect sitting position as I turned and looked. At the moment he was almost sitting erect I heard two reports which I thought were shots and that appeared to me completely different in sound than the first report and were in such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them. It looked to me as if the President was struck in the right upper rear of his head . The first shot of the second two seemed as if it missed because the hair on the right side of his head flew forward and there didn't seem to be any impact against his head. The last shot seemed to hit his head and cause a noise at the point of impact which made him fall forward and to his left again.
Hickey meant a disturbance in the Queen Mary followup car (679X) which he was riding in. Agent Landis claimed that after the first shot: "I recall Special Agent Jack Ready saying, 'What was it? A Fire Cracker?' I remarked, 'I don't know; I don't see any smoke.' So far the lapsed period of time could not have been over two or three seconds."
How does he turn completely around if he is sitting? His head is higher than others inside the car but not as high as the agents on the running board (see: Altgens 6 photo).
Where do we see Hickey's body turned completely around?
He may have been crouching with one foot on the floor and a knee on the seat. But he was not sitting. Except that he is nowhere close to turning rearward for at least another 44 frames. He said he turned rearward in response to hearing the first shot
A little fudge that sounds a lot better that him saying he turned around after hearing the second shot and having seen the President reacted to it.
Yes, but it is a much worse estimate of the time if the first shot was at z155 as you suggest. Witnesses are much better at observing the sequence of events and relative lapses of time than measuring absolute time.
Witnesses had no reason to gauge the time-span (in a three-shot LN scenario) between the first shot and second shot. I would say most were dismissive towards the first shot ("firecracker", "backfire") and not expecting the loud report to repeat. Only after hearing the second loud report would they have any compulsion to begin gauging the span between the shots. By then, the time-span between shots one and two is no longer available to be gauged, and would seem to be further back in time than it really was.
Altgens took his z256 photo a bit more than 3 seconds after the first shot if the first shot was around z195.
Altgens was pretty vague about the sounds he heard before the "shot" he was sure was "almost simultaneous" with his Z255 photo. "I mean the first shot, and being fireworks--who counts fireworks explosions?" The only other shot he was firm abnout was the head shot. Only when pressed, did he reluctantly place a thriod shot between the two shots he was sure of.
Thus, a second shot fired that struck at Z223 would be heard by Altgens 1 3/4 seconds prior to snapping his shutter.