That’s pretty much what I think. Although the precise timing of the first and second shots are debatable.
(I do wonder whether Connally hasn’t turned around too much by 270 to be hit in the back).
That was the opinion given by FBI ballistics expert Robert Frazier (5 H 170):
WC counsel David Belin in his book :Final Disclosure: The Full Truth About the Assassination of President Kennedy" credits Frazier as persuading him that Connally was not hit in the back after z240, initially thinking that this meant there must have been two shooters. He credits Arlen Specter of then coming up with his ingenious SBT to get around that problem.
The problem, as I see it, is that Frazier is not an expert in gunshot wounds and human anatomy or how clothing moves relative to the body when the body contorts.
The bullet entered 3/4 of an inch from the right arm/back seam and 5 inches below the shoulder seam, which means it entered under the shoulder (ie the armpit). Frazier measured that to be a 20° angle, presumably in a normal position with the shoulders and hips are facing forward. He does not give the angle from the SN to the direction of the car at the various points. At z271 I have the angle from the SN relative to the car direction as 3.5 degrees:
Frazier appears to have assumed that the position of the clothing relative to the underlying body does not change when the upper body turns to the rear as seen with JBC after z235 or so. Furthermore, Frazier does not seem to have made any allowance for the fact that with JBC's shoulders turned 60-70 degrees to his hips means the parts lower down on the chest turn progressively less.
Perhaps the most significant assumption Frazier made was "there was no deflection between the window and the point of exit from the Governor’s body" (5 H 170). Frazier assumed that the bullet did not change direction in striking the fifth rib despite imparting significant impact sensation that JBC described as a forceful punch to the back. As a ballistics expert, I would have thought that the impact as JBC described could indicate a change in direction of the bullet or a slowing down, or both.
