Did LHO fire a shot that missed everything? If so, when did he fire it?

[John Corbett]

If you'll go back and read my earlier posts, you'll see that I'm not talking about their "startle responses."

I'm talking about their intentional head turns about a second after their "startle responses."

Which "startle responses," if the first shot did occur half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 (and pretty darn far from his camera), probably wouldn't be discernable by us, anyway.


Regarding said intentional head turns:

1) JFK starts a quick look to the left at Z-142

2) Jackie starts accelerated head turning left at Z-142

3) Connally begins a quick head turn left at Z-149, followed by quickly looking back right.

4) Nellie begins a quick sweeping head turn to the right at Z-144

5) Kellerman begins leaning over and looking behind/down to the right at Z-148

Your whole premise is based on the assumption that these head movements were all cause by the same stimulus and that stimulus was Oswald's first shot. That doesn't seem very compelling proof to me of a shot at virtual Z124. I'd also like to know how you pinpointed it at the instant. I've explained how I have arrived at my conclusion the first shot was fired at Z148. Maybe you have explained it before but I'm not going to search the archives to find it. It would be a needle in the haystack for me to do it. Please give us the Reader's Digest version of how you reached your conclusion as to the specific time of the first shot.

[Tom Graves]

Your whole premise is based on the assumption that these head movements were all cause by the same stimulus and that stimulus was Oswald's first shot. That doesn't seem very compelling proof to me of a shot at virtual Z124. I'd also like to know how you pinpointed it at the instant. I've explained how I have arrived at my conclusion the first shot was fired at Z148. Maybe you have explained it before but I'm not going to search the archives to find it. It would be a needle in the haystack for me to do it. Please give us the Reader's Digest version of how you reached your conclusion as to the specific time of the first shot.

ME: Explain in 100 words or less how Roselle and Scearce determined that the first, missing everything, shot occurred about half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133.

Thought for 7s

GROK: Roselle and Scearce (2020) used human reaction-time science on the silent Zapruder film to time the first (missed) shot.

acsr.org

They distinguished fast involuntary startle reflexes (e.g., ~0.06–0.2 sec flinch) from slower voluntary “surprise” reactions (conscious head turns/looks to locate the sound source). Using brake perception-reaction time (PRT) models from traffic studies—adjusted for total surprise—they estimated median perception time to initiate voluntary movement at roughly 0.5–1+ sec (varying with expectancy).

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

In early frames, they identified near-simultaneous voluntary reactions by 7 witnesses (JFK, Jackie, the Connallys, Kellerman, Hickey, Rosemary Willis) starting ~Z140–Z150 (e.g., rapid leftward head turns then right). Subtracting typical surprise PRT placed the gunshot sound ~½ sec earlier—at hypothetical Z-124, just before Zapruder restarted filming at Z-133 after his ~17-sec pause.

jfk-assassination.net

This fits eyewitness timing, earwitness patterns, and a pre-tree miss. (≈85 words)

. . . . . . . .

I know you love jiggles, John Corbett, so just for giggles I'd like to share with you what someone by the name of Herb Huskr just posted:

Three synchronized film clips:

1) Elsie Dorman

2) Secret Service reenactment

3) Zapruder clip

Shown with three dubbed-in gunshot sounds at the following times in the three different montages:

Montage 1:  "Z-107" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 2:  "Z-124" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 3: Z-160  Z-219 and Z-310

When we watch and listen to montage 2, we see that Dorman, who at a distance of 35 feet was subjected to about 135 dB from the muzzle blast of Oswald's Carcano (whereas Zapruder, at 275 feet, was subjected to only about 119 dB, and Phil Willis at 130 feet was subjected to about 125 dB), was so startled by the sound of the first shot at "Z-124" that she stopped filming altogether (her finger slipped off the button). Then she resumed filming a couple of seconds later and at approximately Z-222 jiggled her camera like all get out and stopped filming again. Interestingly, she doesn't jiggle her camera at right after the Z-313 head shot. Could it be due to her having become habituated to the nearby muzzle blasts? Seems logical to me.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/553546571932211/user/100003268844965

[John Corbett]

ME: Explain in 100 words or less how Roselle and Scearce determined that the first, missing everything, shot occurred about half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133.

Thought for 7s

GROK: Roselle and Scearce (2020) used human reaction-time science on the silent Zapruder film to time the first (missed) shot.

acsr.org

They distinguished fast involuntary startle reflexes (e.g., ~0.06–0.2 sec flinch) from slower voluntary “surprise” reactions (conscious head turns/looks to locate the sound source). Using brake perception-reaction time (PRT) models from traffic studies—adjusted for total surprise—they estimated median perception time to initiate voluntary movement at roughly 0.5–1+ sec (varying with expectancy).

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

In early frames, they identified near-simultaneous voluntary reactions by 7 witnesses (JFK, Jackie, the Connallys, Kellerman, Hickey, Rosemary Willis) starting ~Z140–Z150 (e.g., rapid leftward head turns then right). Subtracting typical surprise PRT placed the gunshot sound ~½ sec earlier—at hypothetical Z-124, just before Zapruder restarted filming at Z-133 after his ~17-sec pause.

jfk-assassination.net

This fits eyewitness timing, earwitness patterns, and a pre-tree miss. (≈85 words)

. . . . . . . .

I know you love jiggles, John Corbett, so just for giggles I'd like to share with you what someone by the name of Herb Huskr just posted:

Three synchronized film clips:

1) Elsie Dorman

2) Secret Service reenactment

3) Zapruder clip

Shown with three dubbed-in gunshot sounds at the following times in the three different montages:

Montage 1:  "Z-107" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 2:  "Z-124" Z-219 and Z-310

Montage 3: Z-160  Z-219 and Z-310

When we watch and listen to montage 2, we see that Dorman, who at a distance of 35 feet was subjected to about 135 dB from the muzzle blast of Oswald's Carcano (whereas Zapruder, at 275 feet, was subjected to only about 119 dB, and Phil Willis at 130 feet was subjected to about 125 dB), was so startled by the sound of the first shot at "Z-124" that she stopped filming altogether (her finger slipped off the button). Then she resumed filming a couple of seconds later and at approximately Z-222 jiggled her camera like all get out and stopped filming again. Interestingly, she doesn't jiggle her camera at right after the Z-313 head shot. Could it be due to her having become habituated to the nearby muzzle blasts? Seems logical to me.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/553546571932211/user/100003268844965

This reminds me of the acoustical study that convinced the HSCA that there was a second shooter and a fourth shot. Of course that study was never peer reviewed before the HSCA bought it hook, line, and sinker. Later that study was determined to be junk science. Why should we give Roselle and Scearce any more credibility. What are their credentials? Was their work peer reviewed? If not, it falls into the same junk science category as the Bolt, Beranek and Newman study that was presented to the HSCA.

[Tom Graves]

This reminds me of the acoustical study that convinced the HSCA that there was a second shooter and a fourth shot. Of course, that study was never peer reviewed before the HSCA bought it hook, line, and sinker. Later that study was determined to be junk science. Why should we give Roselle and Scearce any more credibility? What are their credentials? Was their work peer reviewed? If not, it falls into the same junk science category as the Bolt, Beranek and Newman study that was presented to the HSCA.

Given the fact that you believe, correctly, that Oswald fired all three shots and killed JFK, why do you think Elsie Dorman, standing 35 feet away from Oswald's ear-splitting Carcano, jiggled her camera so violently at "Z-124" that she inadvertently turned it off, and why did you think she did it again at Z-222?

Do you think Roselle and Scearce are mistaken when they say Kellerman began leaning over and looking behind/down to his right at Z-148, Connally began a quick head turn left, followed by quickly looking back right at Z-149, Jackie started an accelerated head turn to her left at Z-142,  JFK started taking a quick look to his left at Z-142, and Nellie began a quick, sweeping head turn to her right at Z-144?

Bear in mind these aren't shoulder-hunching "flinches", but head turns, and are, therefore, voluntary responses to the sounds of the gunshot, not "startle reactions" that preceded them by about half-a-second second earlier.

You've said that the Zapruder film, unlike many eyewitnesses, has never "lied" to you.

If you try hard enough, you'll find the above-mentioned all-within-a-half-second-of-each-other movements in your beloved celluloid truth-teller.

Lacking any other documented loud stimuli at the time, how else can these nearly simultaneous head movements of all five limo passengers be explained as anything other than their conscious responses to the sound(s) of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot?

[John Corbett]

Given the fact that you believe, correctly, that Oswald fired all three shots and killed JFK, why do you think Elsie Dorman, standing 35 feet away from Oswald's ear-splitting Carcano, jiggled her camera so violently at "Z-124" that she inadvertently turned it off, and why did you think she did it again at Z-222?

Do you think Roselle and Scearce are mistaken when they say Kellerman began leaning over and looking behind/down to his right at Z-148, Connally began a quick head turn left, followed by quickly looking back right at Z-149, Jackie started an accelerated head turn to her left at Z-142,  JFK started taking a quick look to his left at Z-142, and Nellie began a quick, sweeping head turn to her right at Z-144?

Bear in mind these aren't shoulder-hunching "flinches", but head turns, and are, therefore, voluntary responses to the sounds of the gunshot, not "startle reactions" that preceded them by about half-a-second second earlier.

You've said that the Zapruder film, unlike many eyewitnesses, has never "lied" to you.

If you try hard enough, you'll find the above-mentioned all-within-a-half-second-of-each-other movements in your beloved celluloid truth-teller.

Lacking any other documented loud stimuli at the time, how else can these nearly simultaneous head movements of all five limo passengers be explained as anything other than their conscious responses to the sound(s) of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot?

You have Kellerman reacting at Z148. JBC at Z149. Jack and Jackie at Z142. Within a half second is not what I call simultaneous. Your whole premise is based on these non-simultaneous head movements being a reaction to a gunshot, a shot Jackie doesn't even remember hearing. JFK didn't seem at all phased by it as he continued to calmly wave to the crowd until he was struck at or about Z222. Not exactly a WTF-was-that reaction by JFK. Why would you assume these head movements were triggered by a loud stimulus. Can't you think of any other reason the occupants of the limo would be looking around during a motorcade?

[Michael Capasse]

Where is the car in proximity to the window in the 140s?
How do you know a shot in the 140s isn't a firecracker?

The window is only open about 13in - at only about a foot from the floor and covered in boxes.
Did he point the gun straight down?  how could he see? how could that be missed? ...and 120s is just ridiculous 

Also, I don't buy a shaky camera at the sound of shots. It may be actual but not exclusive.
If Sitzman was holding on to him, how do you know any of her movements would not effect the camera?

[John Corbett]

Where is the car in proximity to the window in the 140s?
How do you know a shot in the 140s isn't a firecracker?

The window is only open about 13in - at only about a foot from the floor and covered in boxes.
Did he point the gun straight down?  how could he see? how could that be missed? ...and 120s is just ridiculous 

Also, I don't buy a shaky camera at the sound of shots. It may be actual but not exclusive.
If Sitzman was holding on to him, how do you know any of her movements would not effect the camera?

My objection to a virtual Z124 shot or any other time while Zapruder wasn't filming is that JBC is seen reacting at Z164 when he starts to turn to look over his right shoulder. That's over 2 seconds which seems a rather slow response to me. If the shot was fired at Z148 which is my belief, JBC would have heard the shot at Z150 which is about 3/4 of a second. Neither my belief of a shot at Z148 or the Roselle/Scearce theory of a virtual Z124 shot is an established fact but I think the evidence is much stronger for a Z148 shot. We see the same pattern for the two shots we know struck JFK so a shot at Z148 is consistent with the other two shots. With no definitive evidence of when the first shot was fired, it's the best we can do.

You have identified the difficulty of the first shot whether fired at Z124, Z148, or any early frame in the Z-film. It's a very awkward downward shot with the target moving across the line of fire as opposed to down the line of fire as it was for the subsequent shots. Oswald would likely have had to raise up to fire down that steeply and it's easy to understand why he would completely miss with that shot.