The Simplest Conspiracy Theory

[Dan O'meara]

Let's have a closer examination of something that really puts Bill Shelley in the spotlight as Oswald's accomplice.
Oswald may have been a lot of things but he was not stupid. Beyond the mumbling loner known to his work colleagues, Oswald was an intelligent and articulate man. His various radio and television appearances demonstrate this with clarity as does the fact he taught himself to speak Russian.
When a person gives an alibi to the police they know they have gone on the record and that this is the version of events that will be used against them in a court of law. For anyone accused of a crime, the most important element of their defense is the 'alibi'. They also know that once the alibi is given it will be checked to see how 'cast iron' it is. For crimes such as shooting police officers or Presidents, this is doubly so.
An alibi that turns out to false is a massive red flag to investigating authorities.
If a guilty person is going to give a false alibi it must be one that is incredibly difficult to verify or one that has been agreed with an accomplice.
Looking through the various notes and reports pertaining to Oswald's interrogation, his alibi has a few different elements:
According to what Oswald reportedly said -

1] He was in the lunch room on the first floor (the Domino Room) when JFK's limo drove by the building.
2] After this he went up to the second floor lunchroom to buy a Coke
3] He bought the Coke and was drinking it when Baker burst in, gun drawn.
4] He went back down to the first floor.
5] At some point he got together with Bill Shelley.
6] As a consequence of his conversation with Shelley, Oswald decided to leave.
7] Oswald left the building.

The most significant element (imo) of Oswald's alibi is his interaction with Bill Shelley. Apparently, Oswald credits Shelley with his motive for leaving the building. The importance of this cannot be stressed enough because it is Oswald's decision to 'flee the scene' that puts him well and truly in the spotlight as a prime suspect on the day of the assassination. Even if he actually pulled the trigger, he has no reason to run immediately. He has already encountered the police, seconds after the shooting, four floors below the location of the shooting and has been given a pass. They can't immediately trace the rifle to him, they can't use fingerprint evidence against him on the day. All he has to do is hold his nerve, say he was on the second floor lunchroom all along and skip town later that day. Instead, he leaves the TSBD building and appears to be making a run for the border when he crosses paths with J D Tippit.

So let's imagine that Oswald is the shooter and is trying to come up with a false alibi. One that will stick in a court of law or at least convince the DPD.
He's being asked - why did you flee the scene of the crime? Obviously, he has to come up with something convincing but something that would be almost impossible to verify.
Instead, he basically says that Bill Shelley said it was OK for him to leave!
Why on earth would he mention Bill Shelley? Why would he say it was Bill Shelley who recommended he leave for the day?
After his arrest, Oswald saw Shelley as he was being taken into the interview room because Shelley, who was having his affidavit taken, had to vacate the same room. So Oswald knew that all they had to do was ask Shelley if such a conversation took place. It's the easiest thing in the world to check and it can be checked almost immediately.

According to his testimony, Shelley (like nearly everyone else) hardly knew Oswald at all except as someone who worked at the TSBD building. Why would Oswald, an intelligent man, think Shelley would back him up? Why would he take such a ridiculous risk? Why would it even cross his mind to offer such an easily checked alibi if he knew the detectives could immediately ask Shelley if it was true?
The answer to this question is obvious - Oswald did it because he fully expected that Shelley would back him up!
Which of these two options makes sense - that Oswald was so utterly stupid as to include Shelley in a false alibi that could be checked out immediately, leaving him looking completely guilty...
...or that Oswald fully expected to be backed up by Shelley, which is why he felt comfortable telling his interrogators about it?
Of course, when asked, Shelley denied all knowledge of this interaction with Oswald. This is from an FBI report about Shelley the day after the assassination:

"OSWALD said nothing to him about leaving work early or going home, and he did not give OSWALD permission to leave work.

He is still being asked about it in his WC testimony:

Mr. Ball: Did you at anytime after the President was shot see Oswald in the building?
Mr. Shelley: No, sir.
Mr. Ball: Did you at anytime after the President was shot tell Oswald to go home?
Mr. Shelley: No, sir.

Fritz makes the point that Oswald was cool and collected during the questioning, as if he'd experienced this kind of thing before, so the idea that a panicked and desperate Oswald blurted out the first name he could think of as an alibi is a non-starter.
It must rate as one of the weakest alibis in law enforcement history and something only an utter moron would come up with.
Or...
...Shelley was lying...
...again.
He lied about his movements in the immediate aftermath of the assassination and he was lying again about interacting with Oswald.
Of course Nutters will cry "but Oswald was crazy".
That may well be, but he wasn't so stupid as to think his Shelley alibi would stand up if it was false.
Oswald expected Shelley to back him up.
But only an accomplice would do that.

[John Mytton]

Looking through the various notes and reports pertaining to Oswald's interrogation, his alibi has a few different elements:
According to what Oswald reportedly said -

1] He was in the lunch room on the first floor (the Domino Room) when JFK's limo drove by the building.
2] After this he went up to the second floor lunchroom to buy a Coke
3] He bought the Coke and was drinking it when Baker burst in, gun drawn.
4] He went back down to the first floor.
5] At some point he got together with Bill Shelley.
6] As a consequence of his conversation with Shelley, Oswald decided to leave.
7] Oswald left the building.

1) Apparently Oswald liked Kennedy and in addition Oswald was very political and this was a once in a lifetime opportunity. And Oswald didn't exactly have to go out of his way to see the parade, so why didn't he go out and have a look or even just go to a window? Well, we all know Oswald did in fact go to a window and watched the Parade through the scope on his rifle!
2) Oswald like Dr Pepper and there was a Dr Pepper machine on the 1st floor.
3) Both Baker and Truly testified that Oswald wasn't holding a coke.
4) Yes, yes he did!
5) As your Shelley quote from his testimony points out, Shelley didn't see Oswald and I don't believe that Shelley was alone in the minutes following the assassination and nobody else saw Oswald with Shelley?
6) No, Oswald was in the flight of his life!
7) Right! Oswald has left the building!

JohnM

[Dan O'meara]

1) Apparently Oswald liked Kennedy and in addition Oswald was very political and this was a once in a lifetime opportunity. And Oswald didn't exactly have to go out of his way to see the parade, so why didn't he go out and have a look or even just go to a window? Well, we all know Oswald did in fact go to a window and watched the Parade through the scope on his rifle!
2) Oswald like Dr Pepper and there was a Dr Pepper machine on the 1st floor.
3) Both Baker and Truly testified that Oswald wasn't holding a coke.
4) Yes, yes he did!
5) As your Shelley quote from his testimony points out, Shelley didn't see Oswald and I don't believe that Shelley was alone in the minutes following the assassination and nobody else saw Oswald with Shelley?
6) No, Oswald was in the flight of his life!
7) Right! Oswald has left the building!

JohnM

That's quite weird, John.
Any chance of dealing with the issue I raise in my post.

[John Iacoletti]

That's quite weird, John.
Any chance of dealing with the issue I raise in my post.

This is “Mytton”. There is no chance.

[Tom Graves]

Lyndon Baines Johnson
"Dry Hole" Byrd
Jack Cason
William Shelley
Mac Wallace or John Daugherty (shooter)
Oswald ("patsy")

That is the sum total of the simplest conspiracy theory I can imagine.

If you were completely honest, you'd admit that oodles and gobs of other unknown-to-you people must have been involved.

[Dan O'meara]

If you were completely honest, you'd admit that oodles and gobs of other unknown-to-you people must have been involved.

There are other people involved but, other than the patsy (and the ejected Mac Wallace) it is a list of conspirators who knew what was going to happen that day.
Those who knew there was going to be an assassination attempt.
Georges De Morenschildt has to be involved in some capacity. This known friend and associate of the Byrd family who decides to befriend Oswald. An international man of mystery and flamboyant socialite befriending this hostile, sulking loner living in abject poverty. It is so weird and impossible to leave out. De Morenschildt's testimony reveals that he couldn't stand either of the Oswald's but he keeps having to insist there was something he liked about Lee, and then a few sentences later he'll be talking about something he really disliked about him. It is a genuinely bizarre aspect of this whole story and, although De Morenschildt can't be left out, I'm not 100% sure how he fits in. I just don't need him to have foreknowledge of the assassination.
And then there's Shelley's sidekick, his "Igor", Billy Lovelady. He doesn't have a clue what's going on and just does what he's told, although he keeps almost effing things up because he can't keep his story straight. Lovelady does what he's told to do and says what he's told to say but he has no foreknowledge of the assassination as he couldn't be trusted with that knowledge.

In my made up theory these are the only people who had certain foreknowledge:
LBJ, Byrd, Cason, Shelley and Dougherty.

[Tom Graves]

In my made-up theory, these are the only people who had certain foreknowledge of the assassination: LBJ, Byrd, Cason, Shelley and Dougherty.

Which one created CE-399 and either "planted" it or gave it directly to Elmer Todd?