Roger Craig

[John Mytton]

Sergeant KIRK. When I match that up with the scientific data Mr. McCamy has obtained from measuring it, this has to tilt the scales in the direction, yes, indeed it is the same rifle.

That's not to the exclusion of all other rifles.  That's not even beyond a reasonable doubt.

Shaneyfelt:  "I did find one notch in the stock at this point that appears very faintly in the photograph, but it is not sufficient to warrant positive identification."

Sorry Johnny boy but as usual your limited.ability to understand plain English is on display.

"yes, indeed it is the same rifle." By definition is to the exclusion of ALL other rifles.

You Lose!

JohnM

[Mitch Todd]

Sergeant KIRK. When I match that up with the scientific data Mr. McCamy has obtained from measuring it, this has to tilt the scales in the direction, yes, indeed it is the same rifle.

That's not to the exclusion of all other rifles.  That's not even beyond a reasonable doubt.

Shaneyfelt:  "I did find one notch in the stock at this point that appears very faintly in the photograph, but it is not sufficient to warrant positive identification."

Let's look at this in a bit more detail.

Kirk and Shaneyfelt are talking about a flaw on the upper edge of the stock just above the top of the finger groove. It's somewhere between 3/4" and 1" in length. The perimeter of the stock is a bit over 75".
From my own experience with a few dozen Carcanos, at least 10% have such a flaw and as many as 1/3 of them do. The probability of another rifle having a flaw like that is given by the size of the flaw divided by the perimeter of the rifle times the prevalence of Carcanos with such a flaw. Using the figures already given, we can calculate and upper and lower limit on the probability of any other rifle randomly have a matching defect,

The lower limit is given by 1" / 75" * 0.33 =  0.44%

The upper limit is given by 0.75"/75" * 0.10 =  0.1%

By this, there's better than a 99.5% --and maybe a 99.9%-- chance that the rifle in the BYPs is C2766/CE139. These are back-of-the-envelope calculations, but still it gives an idea as the relative uniqueness of the rifle in the photo.

[Mitch Todd]

Yeah, it was such a "glance" that Weitzman went on to describe it and the scope in detail. 

"This rifle was a 7.65 Mauser bolt action equipped with a 4/18 scope, a thick leather brownish-black sling on it."

That's some "glance".

I've noted before, and maybe you forgot, the scope has the following text engraved into it in nice, big, friendly white letters:

4 x 18 COATED
ORDANANCE OPTICS INC
HOLLYWOOD CALIFORNIA
010 JAPAN

I doubt it's hard for someone to recognize  "4 x 18" "at a glance."

Oh, I figure that he got more than a merest glance, but I also figure that he wasn't the expert on firearms that certain later writers claimed that he was. More likely, he knew just enough to get himself into a small bit of trouble. Among the gun cognoscenti such folks are referred to by many appellations. Like "gun store expert." Or, more succinctly, "Fudd". 

[John Iacoletti]

Sorry Johnny boy but as usual your limited.ability to understand plain English is on display.

"yes, indeed it is the same rifle." By definition is to the exclusion of ALL other rifles.

You Lose!

You can pretend he didn't say "tilt the scales", but you can't make it go away.

[John Iacoletti]

Kirk and Shaneyfelt are talking about a flaw on the upper edge of the stock just above the top of the finger groove. It's somewhere between 3/4" and 1" in length. The perimeter of the stock is a bit over 75".
From my own experience with a few dozen Carcanos, at least 10% have such a flaw and as many as 1/3 of them do. The probability of another rifle having a flaw like that is given by the size of the flaw divided by the perimeter of the rifle times the prevalence of Carcanos with such a flaw. Using the figures already given, we can calculate and upper and lower limit on the probability of any other rifle randomly have a matching defect,

I don't know...maybe Shaneyfelt was wise enough not to base his professional judgment on personal anecdotes.

[Fergus O'Brien]

i know there is film , ive seen film and stills . i also know that what a lot of people think is actual footage or actual stills are in fact recreations at different points in the hours or even days after the event .

my point here was that weitzman obviously had more than a glance at that rifle . we know he still said it was a mauser i believe from memory up to about november 24 . this despite the tv news , radio and print media and the DPD now saying its a mauser . it is unfathomable to me that he saw , read or heard no news about the rifle that weekend or that one of his superiors or fellow detectives did not take him aside and tell he HE WAS WRONG , ITS A CARCANO . does any of this prove anything ? no , but it should make people think .

[Dan O'meara]

i know there is film , ive seen film and stills . i also know that what a lot of people think is actual footage or actual stills are in fact recreations at different points in the hours or even days after the event .

my point here was that weitzman obviously had more than a glance at that rifle . we know he still said it was a mauser i believe from memory up to about november 24 . this despite the tv news , radio and print media and the DPD now saying its a mauser . it is unfathomable to me that he saw , read or heard no news about the rifle that weekend or that one of his superiors or fellow detectives did not take him aside and tell he HE WAS WRONG , ITS A CARCANO . does any of this prove anything ? no , but it should make people think .

i also know that what a lot of people think is actual footage or actual stills are in fact recreations at different points in the hours or even days after the event .

Are you talking about the Alyea film being faked?
Some of the DPD crime scene shots were recreations due to the profoundly incompetent nature of the investigation but I've never heard that the footage taken by Alyea was faked.
Obviously there are stills taken by the DPD as part of the investigation and then there is the Alyea footage. They are completely different things.