Colors of Blue and Gold

[Richard Smith]

The US is at $110 billion and counting in this endless war.   Old Joe has indicated that more funding will be needed soon.  No end in sight.  No clear objective or exit strategy.  It could go on for years or decades until Ukraine is a pile of rubble.  Sound familiar?  Someone is getting rich.  The Dems don't want any accounting for the money.  Nothing to see there.  Meanwhile the streets of US cities are overrun with homeless and crime.  The education system is broken.   The airports are crumbling and in disarray.  But the money is flowing to Ukraine with no limits.

[Jon Banks]

Why is it that it's the Russians who find themselves severely outnumbered.

Because Ukraine has drafted all their male citizens between the ages of 18 and 60 while Russia has largely limited their conscription to current military reservists or members of their military who were close to the end of their contracts. Until Putin conscripts all of Russia's male population, Ukraine's advantage is manpower. Russia's advantages are artillery and tanks.

So Russia has needed to be more economical with their manpower than Ukraine. In order to defend Kherson, they moved thousands of troops from the north to the southern front. That left areas of Kharkiv inadequately defended so the Ukrainians took advantage of the gaps in Russia's defenses in the northern region.

Holding the far bank of a river at Kherson is child's play compared to holding Crimea. You have to have a way to get supplies into an area to hold it. You have to, or it cannot be held.

How can Russia possible get supplies into Crimea? Only one of two ways:

1. The narrow corridor, called the "Land Bridge" that is just to the north of the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainians should be able to cut that off, possibly capturing a good hunk of the Russian army with it's back to the very shallow Sea of Azov.

2. Across a wide strait to the east, with only one bridge across it, and that bridge is not like the multiple bridges of Kherson, just a few hundred yards long, but many miles long.

3. The naval port of Sevastopol. Russia's Black Sea fleet is based there. (https://www.britannica.com/place/Sevastopol)


Crimea is a pipe dream for Ukraine. It's part of Russia for the forseeable future. I see no circumstance where Putin/Russia withdraws from Crimea.

[Joe Elliott]

Because Ukraine has drafted all their male citizens between the ages of 18 and 60 while Russia has largely limited their conscription to current military reservists or members of their military who were close to the end of their contracts. Until Putin conscripts all of Russia's male population, Ukraine's advantage is manpower. Russia's advantages are artillery and tanks.

This works because Ukrainians support the war. Many could have fled but have not. Many escorted their families out but then returned when they did not have to. Napoleon said that "Morale is to Material as Three is to One". And the Morale of the Russians in 2023 is clearly not the same as their morale in 1941, or 1812. Or to the morale of the Ukrainians in 2023. Not even close.

So Russia has needed to be more economical with their manpower than Ukraine. In order to defend Kherson, they moved thousands of troops from the north to the southern front. That left areas of Kharkiv inadequately defended so the Ukrainians took advantage of the gaps in Russia's defenses in the northern region.

Russia is not being economical with their troops at Bakhmut nor Soledar. They just want something to make a weak claim that they are making real progress.

Oh, by the way, since the Wagner Group announced that they have taken all of Soledar, they have bombarded Soledar another 93 times and counting.

3. The naval port of Sevastopol. Russia's Black Sea fleet is based there. (https://www.britannica.com/place/Sevastopol)

Doesn't matter. A fleet, like an army, has to be kept supply. Time magazine reported that if the land communications to Crimea are all cut off, the Russian fleet based there will have to sail to Georgia.

Crimea is a pipe dream for Ukraine. It's part of Russia for the forseeable future. I see no circumstance where Putin/Russia withdraws from Crimea.

We were told that Ukraine lasting a month once Russia attacked was a pipe dream. President Zelenskyy announced they must reclaim the Crimea before there can be peace. Zelenskyy has some street cred with me. Unlike those who hold that Russia must inevitably prevail, I think he knows what he is talking about. I think it can be done. Retired U. S. military officers think this can be done, so long as we maintain our supply of material and support. They think that if the thing is pressed, Ukraine will prevail. I say, in the words of Lincoln, "Let the thing be pressed".

I think the notion that Russia is going to magically turn things around, erase 30 years of mismanagement of their military at the snap of the fingers, is a pipe dream.

[Joe Elliott]

Question:

Will the Russians replace Putin in the near future?

Answer:

No, not a chance. Not by those who want to replace him. They want the loss of the war, the loss of Crimea to occur under Putin's watch, not theirs. But if Crimea falls, his time is nigh.

[Jon Banks]

This works because Ukrainians support the war. Many could have fled but have not. Many escorted their families out but then returned when they did not have to. Napoleon said that "Morale is to Material as Three is to One". And the Morale of the Russians in 2023 is clearly not the same as their morale in 1941, or 1812. Or to the morale of the Ukrainians in 2023. Not even close.

Many Ukrainians oppose the war. Not all Ukrainians support the Zelensky government. Not all have been willing to fight against Russia.

It's a young nation that experienced an eight year civil war before Russia's 2022 invasion.

As for morale, it's a mistake to assume that morale isn't high on the Russian side as well. Soldiers on both sides believe they're fighting for a good cause (however misguided the Russian soldiers may be).

"Russian mobilization has worked," he maintained. "It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I've studied the history of the two Chechen wars — it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us." - Head of Ukraine's military
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-top-general-no-doubt-russia-will-try-again-kyiv-2022-12

[Joe Elliott]

Many Ukrainians oppose the war. Not all Ukrainians support the Zelensky government. Not all have been willing to fight against Russia.

Can you name any nation is history where:
* All supported the war?
* All supported the government?
* All were willing to fight against the invader?

I didn't think so.

It's a young nation that experienced an eight year civil war before Russia's 2022 invasion.

It's an old people, with their own language, their own culture. This isn't a land that has been a part of Russia since time immemorial. It's only been ruled by Russia for about 250 years. It was taken over by Katherine the Great. And Katherine the Great was not really all that great. And it's been downhill ever since. Not ruled well. Ruled badly, at times absurdly badly. The Ukrainian famine of the early 1930's which killed millions. Making a pact with Nazi Germany, which, as a result of this pact, and Hitler double crossing Stalin at an opportune moment, resulted in Ukraine being overrun and millions more of it's people killed. Worse than absurdly bad.

As for morale, it's a mistake to assume that morale isn't high on the Russian side as well. Soldiers on both sides believe they're fighting for a good cause (however misguided the Russian soldiers may be).

Clearly not too high on the Russian side. No flocks of hundreds of thousands volunteering for the army. But with flocks of hundreds of thousands of young men fleeing the country. There best units are convicts who have no choice. An army consisting of "The Dirty Dozen" may work in movies but not so in real life.

"Russian mobilization has worked," he maintained. "It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I've studied the history of the two Chechen wars — it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us." - Head of Ukraine's military
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-top-general-no-doubt-russia-will-try-again-kyiv-2022-12

If all Russian mobilization can do is result in the capture of Bakhmut and Soledar, before the Russian army suffers the sort of summertime disasters it suffered last September, then the mobilization worked, just not worked very well. We shall see.

[Jon Banks]

Can you name any nation is history where:
* All supported the war?
* All supported the government?
* All were willing to fight against the invader?

I didn't think so.

Of course but your comment implied that Ukraine has no problems with morale or dissent. Which is verifiably false.

There's no question that rallying your country against an invading army is easier than rallying your countrymen to invade a foreign country. But Ukraine is a relatively young country with deep political divisions (just like the US during our wars against the British) so it's not reasonable to assume that they're not having any difficulties in getting men to fight or political divisions still. 
 

Clearly not too high on the Russian side. No flocks of hundreds of thousands volunteering for the army. But with flocks of hundreds of thousands of young men fleeing the country. There best units are convicts who have no choice. An army consisting of "The Dirty Dozen" may work in movies but not so in real life.

The commander of Ukraine's armed forces disagrees with your assumptions.

Given his age, I assume he began his military career in the Soviet army and knows some of Russia's military leaders.

If all Russian mobilization can do is result in the capture of Bakhmut and Soledar, before the Russian army suffers the sort of summertime disasters it suffered last September, then the mobilization worked, just not worked very well. We shall see.

Soledar and Bakhmut are almost entirely being managed by the Wagner mercenaries. The newly mobilized forces are being used in other parts of the Theater.