Colors of Blue and Gold

[Steve M. Galbraith]

I wouldn't call that a serious gain. Not compared to the serious Ukrainian gains of during the last 8 months around Kharkiv and Kherson. Russia has been totally done with large gains of territory since April. Since then, they have been grimly hanging on, with very small gains on small sections here or there, with occasional much larger collapses of a front. Since April, their territorial gains have been much smaller than the Ukrainian gains. Half the territory that Russia seized in 2022 has already been taken back by Ukraine. The tide is clearly going against Russia.

Saying Russia has some loses, but also some gains, implying it's going back and forth, is like saying Germany in 1944/1945 had some loses, but also some gains. The German advances in 1944/1944, counter attacks in Eastern Prussia, counter attacks in the Battle of the Bulge, were totally eclipsed by the huge Soviet and Western Allies advances during that period. By more than a 100 to 1 ratio.

I get the impression that this winter is so mild, for Ukraine, that significant advances by either side will be unlikely until May or June, with both sides being bogged down by the mud. But I think that before the summer is out, Russia will lose the Crimea land bridge and Crimea itself. We shall see.

Can Putin survive the lose of Crimea? That is, stay in office? Or even survive? I doubt it. Makes no difference. He will be replaced by someone just as bad. But able to rally the Russians to go on any further large adventures? I doubt it.

The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding the Study of War (I got their name wrong): https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

[Joe Elliott]

The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding War: https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

Yes. The Wagner Group seems to be the most effective army force that Russia has. And I am sure you would agree, that does not make the Wagner Group an effective military force. I don't think it is the Wagner Group or the regular army that is holding the Ukrainians back now. I think it is the mud. With this mild winter, the mud might not ever really go away this winter. And, even if there is a cold snap, winter is not the ideal time for an offensive.

But when the ground finally dries out in the early summer, around May or June, we will see how effective the Wagner Group and the Regular Russian army with it's fresh and largely untrained and ill-equipted draftees fare against the NATO trained (this winter) Ukrainians. I don't think very well. The Kharkiv offensive of last September is a foreshadowing of things to come.

[Joe Elliott]

Russian lost Kherson, a city with a population of 280,000 (pre-war 2020). It was the only administration center of an Oblast (sort of like a U. S. state) that Russia captured in 2022. It was abandoned by the Russians within a few days of the U. S. elections in November (don't want to hurt the Pro-Trump candidates). So they needed something to offset the loss of that city, for the Russian public.

The Russians believed they could take Bakhmut, a town of 70,000 (pre-war 2020). So the Russian media made Bakhmut the litmus test of how effective the Russian military force is. But it appears that they won't take that place.

So now they have turned to Soledar, a town of 10,000 (pre-war 2020), to make that their new litmus test. Some sources claim it has been taken, but it appears it is still contested.

If the Russians fail to take Soledar, I expect the Russian media will soon be talking about how they are on the verge of taking some town of 3,000. The Russians believe they will soon take some city or town of decisive importance this winter. They just don't know yet which one it will be. Perhaps it won't be a town. Maybe it will be a house in Bakhmut or Soledar, which will be declared as the "Pavlov house" of 2023.

[Jon Banks]

The best site (for me) on this is the Institute for Understanding War: https://www.understandingwar.org/

They report this on Soledar: "Russian forces have not captured the entirety of Soledar despite several false Russian claims that the city has fallen and that Bakhmut risks imminent encirclement. Several Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group forces advanced into the west of Soledar on January 10.[18] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin refuted these claims, remarking that Wagner Group forces are still fighting against concerted Ukrainian resistance.[19] ISW has only observed visual confirmation of Wagner Group forces in central Soledar as of January 10.[20] The reality of block-by-block control of terrain in Soledar is obfuscated by the dynamic nature of urban combat, however, and Russian forces have largely struggled to make significant tactical gains in the Soledar area for months. Even taking the most generous Russian claims at face value,"

What's interesting is they claim Russian forces are increasingly having to use professional/private armies - essentially hiring people, e.g., the Wagner Group - to conduct significant offensive operations. The raw recruits are used for defensive operations only and are incapable of anything more.

There have been no official announcements from the Russian side but the city of Soledar appears to be mostly under Russian control. There may be a few hundred Ukrainian troops left in the Salt Mine area.

Bakhmut is close to being surrounded. Russian forces are advancing from the north and south of the city.

Russia's army would not win a Ground war against a NATO country but Ukraine isn't a NATO country. Ukraine would've lost this war months ago if not for the intelligence sharing and military aid they've gotten from the US and other NATO countries.

And yet still, they're losing territory and suffering huge numbers of casualties.

The best case scenario for Ukraine in this war is to fight Russia to a stalemate. Anyone who thinks Ukraine alone can militarily force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine is delusional in my honest opinion.

[Jon Banks]

Russian lost Kherson, a city with a population of 280,000 (pre-war 2020). It was the only administration center of an Oblast (sort of like a U. S. state) that Russia captured in 2022. It was abandoned by the Russians within a few days of the U. S. elections in November (don't want to hurt the Pro-Trump candidates). So they needed something to offset the loss of that city, for the Russian public.

Ukraine lost Kherson within the first few weeks of the war. Russia took the city relatively easier than other cities in eastern Ukraine. There's some evidence that the local officials in Kherson simply switched sides early on which is part of why the city was captured by Russia so quickly.

As for the Russian withdrawal, it happened because Russia's commanders wanted to leave Kherson city. After Ukraine was given HIMAR launchers, it became too difficult for Russia to supply their forces on the west side of the river in Kherson. So it's more accurate to say that Russia surrendered the city due to the logistics problems. They weren't driven out by Ukrainian ground forces (who failed in dozens of attempts take Kherson between the summer and fall).

Soledar and Bakhmut reportedly are major logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces. Losing those cities will make it more difficult for Ukraine's supply lines on the eastern front. There are also reportedly miles of underground tunnels in that area which the Russians can use to support their logistics in Ukraine and hide equipment from spy western satellites.

The battles for those two cities have been costly for both sides. I doubt that Ukraine would sacrifice so many troops to defend them if they were insignificant targets.

[Joe Elliott]

Great quote from Yevgeny Prigozhin—who heads up the Wagner Group:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-state-tv-says-country-needs-morale-boost-alone-against-the-world/ar-AA16dq93?ocid=Peregrine&cvid=7691b5ba978a40059e5cf27606f13afe

"Units of the Wagner private military company have taken the entire territory of Soledar under their control. The city center has been surrounded, and urban warfare is under way. The number of captives will be announced tomorrow," the statement read, according to the Tass readout.

Urban warfare is still under way? So, it appears that Soledar has been totally taken by the Wagner group, but a lot of fighting has broken out among the victorious Russian troops who now occupy the town. Well, what do you expect from a bunch of convicts?

[Richard Smith]

So as VP Old Joe visited Ukraine SIX times as VP.  He was apparently so interested in Ukraine that he made a visit there on his last day as VP.  Such interest in that country.  And it had nothing do with his son being paid millions from that country.  Just a coincidence.  He was tirelessly promoting democracy even when leaving office.  And the classified documents he left in his private office had something to do with - guess who - Ukraine.  LOL.  And we are supposed to believe that six years after leaving office as VP that Biden's lawyers just decided one day to look through some boxes of papers locked in that office.  They had nothing better to do and surprise!  They found some classified documents.  But they don't announce this to the public until two months after the election.  In fact, they don't announce or explain it at all.  The corruption and legal double standard are astounding.  Trump would have been impeached and imprisoned by now if he had done anything like this.