Touring the Tippit Scene

[Martin Weidmann]

I didn’t conjure up the facts that LHO lived in the neighborhood, liked watching movies, and that the theater provided a relief from the heat. These might not be reasons that convince you of the likelihood. (Nothing whatsoever is likely to convince you of anything.) But they most definitely are not “pure conjecture.”

Nothing whatsoever is likely to convince you of anything.

Stop whining. Sound arguments based on provable persuasive facts will always convince me and I am sure John feels the same.

But they most definitely are not “pure conjecture.”

What you are doing is the definition of conjecture.

[John Iacoletti]

I didn’t conjure up the facts that LHO lived in the neighborhood, liked watching movies, and that the theater provided a relief from the heat. These might not be reasons that convince you of the likelihood.

It’s contrived. I gave you an equally valid set of facts that argue against that likelihood. That’s why your methodology for determining likelihood is flawed. It will lead you to whatever conclusion you want.

(Nothing whatsoever is likely to convince you of anything.)

All it takes is evidence. Conjecture isn’t evidence.

But they most definitely are not “pure conjecture.”

The “facts” aren’t, but the conclusion you tried to draw from them certainly are.

Did Oswald “likely” go for swims in the Trinity River?

[Charles Collins]

That why this whole rabbit hole is ridiculous. Sure, it’s possible that LHO could have gone up to the balcony to avoid the concession stand ticket taker. It’s also possible that he couldn’t. Or didn’t. Again, so what?

Now we’re probably going to get to have an argument over what “definitely” means. There’s nothing definite about it. Nobody knows if Oswald was ever in the balcony or on one of those staircases.

Again, there’s nothing “likely” about it. It’s pure conjecture.

Nobody actually saw him enter the theater, so you haven’t even demonstrated that he did “sneak in”, much less why.

You go on believing that nobody has demonstrated anything whatsoever happened at all. I give up.

[John Iacoletti]

You go on believing that nobody has demonstrated anything whatsoever happened at all. I give up.

I’m sure you will go on calling your speculated possibilities “likely”.

If you had just left out the word “likely”, nobody would have argued with you.

[Martin Weidmann]

You go on believing that nobody has demonstrated anything whatsoever happened at all. I give up.

Here, I'll help you; from the Oxford dictionary...

conjecture
/kənˈdʒɛktʃə/

noun
an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of incomplete information.
"conjectures about the newcomer were many and varied"

[Charles Collins]

If you had just left out the word “likely”, nobody would have argued with you.

That’s highly unlikely.

[Martin Weidmann]

That’s highly unlikely.

And that's another thing you're wrong about....