The First Shot

[Jerry Organ]

Ok. Thanks for the clarification,  Mr Organ.

Odd, though, that the FBI and SS had Mr West plot in three hits, at z207, z312, and z350, on the first two surveys he completed. Those agencies provided those locations. Guess Mr Specter knew better.

Wonder if the Z350 one had anything to do with getting a bullet down to the area where Tague was nicked. They might have thought a pristine bullet struck there or the pavement up from there, and wanted to see how it plotted on a map.

[Allan Fritzke]

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

I can see your point.  To me,  I don't necessarily see a fist clenching.  Camera angle may dictate hand disappearing from view.  The left hand is reacting at the exact same time - a reflex movement.  One can see before the sign that the President is giving a last crowd wave as the right hand is still up and he has no distress.  The crowd is thinning and it appears his hand moves down from his upstretched position somewhere behind the sign.  Certainly I think your analysis is correct and it is a reflex action rather than a premeditated one and is much quicker than that of his wife - reflex versus reaction.

So compare his reaction time to that of Jacqueline who appears to be looking at him the whole time.  She has a reaction time of about 8 frames.  That is a reactive motion to an external stimulus.  Use that reaction time to make further analysis.   At frame Z338  she appears to have had quite enough stimulus and gets ready to leave the crime scene.  Given the logic that 8 frames or half a second is about an adequate normal human response time and count from there backwards.    She is looking right at the President the whole time and appears to be studying him after the first shot so she is on heightened awareness.  A massive blow with fragments flying all over right in front of her face at Z313 should lead to a major reaction at Z321 (1/2 a second).     My feeling is that reaction time of 1/2 a second is a realistic estimate to external stimulus by her or any human.   Logic should say that a reaction by her at Z338 would coincide with a messy kill/headshot coming in at Z330 (1/2 a second earlier) with glass shards catching the sun light over a ducked Connally and SS agent and JFK's head a red ball.   In my opinion, 2 seconds is an unrealistic reaction time to a supposed shot that totally removed the President's head and she misses it for 1 1/2 seconds even though she is looking right at him.  Just compare her initial reaction at the first shot that strikes him to the despair reaction at Z338.  No doubt she thought the next bullet was for her!

The facts are we know the car and body was whisked away in an un-examined state from the crime scene and that a windshield was changed and a controlled autopsy was done out of state - those facts are undisputed.

[Dan O'meara]

I can see your point.  To me,  I don't necessarily see a fist clenching.  Camera angle may dictate hand disappearing from view.  The left hand is reacting at the exact same time - a reflex movement.  One can see before the sign that the President is giving a last crowd wave as the right hand is still up and he has no distress.  The crowd is thinning and it appears his hand moves down from his upstretched position somewhere behind the sign.  Certainly I think your analysis is correct and it is a reflex action rather than a premeditated one and is much quicker than that of his wife - reflex versus reaction.

So compare his reaction time to that of Jacqueline who appears to be looking at him the whole time.  She has a reaction time of about 8 frames.  That is a reactive motion to an external stimulus.  Use that reaction time to make further analysis.   At frame Z338  she appears to have had quite enough stimulus and gets ready to leave the crime scene.  Given the logic that 8 frames or half a second is about an adequate normal human response time and count from there backwards.    She is looking right at the President the whole time and appears to be studying him after the first shot so she is on heightened awareness.  A massive blow with fragments flying all over right in front of her face at Z313 should lead to a major reaction at Z321 (1/2 a second).     My feeling is that reaction time of 1/2 a second is a realistic estimate to external stimulus by her or any human.   Logic should say that a reaction by her at Z338 would coincide with a messy kill/headshot coming in at Z330 (1/2 a second earlier) with glass shards catching the sun light over a ducked Connally and SS agent and JFK's head a red ball.   In my opinion, 2 seconds is an unrealistic reaction time to a supposed shot that totally removed the President's head and she misses it for 1 1/2 seconds even though she is looking right at him.  Just compare her initial reaction at the first shot that strikes him to the despair reaction at Z338.  No doubt she thought the next bullet was for her!

The facts are we know the car and body was whisked away in an un-examined state from the crime scene and that a windshield was changed and a controlled autopsy was done out of state - those facts are undisputed.

Was thinking about the third shot. I was speculating that this shot hit the corner of a concrete slab surrounding a manhole cover on the south side of Elm Street, as reported by Dallas officer J W Foster:

Mr. BALL - What did you do after that?
Mr. FOSTER - I moved to -down the roadway there, down to see if I could find where any of he shots hit.
Mr. BALL - Find anything?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir. Found where one shot had hit the turf there at the location.
Mr. BALL - Hit the turf?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL - Did you see any marks on the street in anyplace?
Mr. FOSTER - No, a manhole cover. It was hit. they caught the manhole cover right on the corner and -
Mr. BALL - You saw a mark on the manhole cover did you?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes sir.
Mr. BALL - I show you a picture here of a concrete slab. or manhole cover. Do you recognize that picture?
Mr. FOSTER - Yes, sir.
Mr. BALL - Does the picture show - tell me what it shows there.
Mr. FOSTER - This looks like the corner here where it penetrated the turf right here [indicating].
Mr. BALL - See any mark on the manhole cover?
Mr. FOSTER - No, sir; I don't. not on the - well, it is on the turf, on the concrete, right in the corner.

After hitting the concrete the bullet fragments, part of which goes on to hit the curb near Tague causing the injury to his face. The problem with this scenario is that the assumed sniper has hit JFK with the first shot in the back (I assume this was meant to be a head-shot). The next shot is the head-shot which indicates that the sniper is getting his eye in. But then the third shot seems to be pulled high. Why a third shot? The sniper must have seen JFK's head explode. And why did it miss if he has two out of two already. Then I read what you posted about Jackie Kennedy and I had an idea.
This is speculation. It's based on asking what has changed between shot two and shot three to make the sniper miss. The sniper is just about to take the third shot and suddenly Clint Hill is in his sights! Shooting a member of the SS is not in the plan. The shot is pulled high, fragments on the concrete of the manhole cover, a piece of which goes on to cause the injury to Tague.
Obviously total speculation but something I find interesting and worth pursuing.



This pic apparently shows an unidentified man (SS agent??) reaching for possible bullet fragment near manhole.




Possible bullet strike on concrete of manhole cover in the position described by Foster in his testimony.

[Dan O'meara]

Some serious digressing here Allan, most of which I agree with but it doesn't concern us here. The point of this thread is to establish when the first of three assumed shots from the TSBD hit JFK. Some researchers believe the first shot missed and occurred before the Presidential limo passed behind the Stemmons sign (some have it before the limo appears in Zapruder - before z133). The arguments presented in this thread have, I believe, demonstrated that the first shot hit JFK and his reaction is clearly seen in the Z-film (clenched fists towards the throat, elbows extended).

"I really don't see the importance of a clenched fist."

Part of the evidence demonstrating this shot occurred after JFK passed behind the Stemmons sign is how JFK's right hand snaps shut in a fraction of a second, which I believe is a reflexive reaction to being shot. As a reflex reaction it is possible to find out how quickly after the initial stimulus (being shot) this reaction occurs and convert this time into z-frames and count back from the initial reaction to give a good estimate of when the initial stimulus occurred (ie: when JFK was hit by the first shot). In the clip posted it is possible to see his hand beginning to snap shut in z225 which pinpoints the moment of initial reaction. It is possible to estimate the speed this reaction would occur after the initial stimulus (a normal touch reaction is thought to be around 150 milliseconds but a reflex reaction is somewhat quicker. I would say 100 milliseconds is a fair estimate). If it is assumed that the stimulus occurs 100 milliseconds before the reaction and, as each Z-frame represents approximately 55 milliseconds it would be expected that the first shot hit JFK 2-3 Z-frames before the initial reaction. That is to say 2-3 Z-frames before z225 (z222/z223)

The clip below shows JFK's hand snapping shut. It must be remembered that it's in slo-mo and doesn't express the rapid nature of the hand-snap:

In this previous post I've argued that the impact of the first shot should be expected in either z222 or z223. I believe it is possible to pinpoint the exact moment of impact to z223 based on an observation from fellow forum member Brian Roselle. In the pic below the detail in question is the small white blob seen above the edge of the door. This small white blob is the cuff of JBC's shirt at his right wrist.


The clip below begins at z222, the shirt cuff is seen just above the top edge of the limo door. By the very next frame (55milliseconds later) it has disappeared downwards, a very rapid movement. Up to this point JBC has been looking to his right, completely calm and composed. He's like this before he goes behind the Stemmons sign and is exactly the same when he first emerges from behind it. Suddenly he bursts into a flurry of activity. As the clip rolls a few things happen simultaneously - his hand is suddenly forced downwards then 'rebounds' upwards to face level. His right shoulder is pulled forward and downwards , rotating his body slightly, sending his left shoulder up and back. As all this happens the right side of his jacket bulges outward quite dramatically.



I believe this shows JBC's wrist being impacted by a bullet at z223. It drives his hand forcibly downwards which then rebounds upwards. The force of the impact drags his right shoulder forward and down causing his body to rotate slightly. The debris exiting his chest wound causes his jacket to bulge.
In the slightly extended clip below I would like to point out the position of JBC's wrist after all this initial activity has died down. To me it appears his wrist is at a really unnatural angle suggesting that his wrist can no longer support his hand due to the damage inflicted. It is also possible that the impact has damaged nerves causing some fingers to curl. It is possible JBC couldn't let go of his Stetson if he wanted to.

[Allan Fritzke]

Certainly true one can infer a lot of different scenarios.  Unfortunately Jacqueline who must have saw it all was forced into silence.

I like to observe her reactions because she is the one facing the Zapruder camera at all times.

When JFK gets shot, she is looking right at him and continues to look at him while bringing her hands up to stabilize his left hand.
It appears both his hands go towards face (choking?) and then the right hand drops down to chest.   Trouble breathing or is this the point (shot) where the pain is coming from?   Is he giving a thumbs up  and then the thumb drops down at Z266?  Any thoughts on that one?

Jacqueline moves her attention to Connally at Z253 and her gaze remains centrally fixated there for the next 3 seconds.  Meanwhile everyone else in the car, the driver, the front SS agent, Connally and  his wife ALL simultaneously turn around and end up looking at the President (Z283 shows that).   At Z291, Jacqueline changes from looking at Connally back to looking at her husband.  She might have noticed them all looking at him.  She seems to be examining his chest if you look at where she is looking.   Not his head or neck.  The position where JFK initially placed his right hand after the first shot is my guess.   Was there a wound there?  What was Jacqueline looking at in that area?  Again, complete silence and the most critical observation was willfully neglected to be recorded.

Connally didn't seem to concerned about the hit he took.  He did not use his good? arm to go to his point of pain and no indication of shortness of breath.  He must have had quite the adrenaline rush as he didn't collapse.   If you recall he had one rib totally pulverized according to reports with the same bullet striking his wrist and leg I believe.  He turned right around and looked directly at JFK to see what was going on with him.   By Z330 he had his head below seat level and then brought it back up to just behind the corner post of the driver.   Nellie can be seen putting her head and body behind him and near JFK's legs at the very same instant.

Meanwhile the SS agent in passenger seat had his head down below at Z330 and the driver had his head closer to the windshield.  If he was putting on the brakes, his head would come forward and so would everyone else.  However no one else in the car reacted like he did.   We also know he must have been driving very slow at that time because the SS agent ran up from the followup car and hopped on.  5 mph would be likely.   Yes there can be a lot interpretation!         

[Dan O'meara]

In this previous post I've argued that the impact of the first shot should be expected in either z222 or z223. I believe it is possible to pinpoint the exact moment of impact to z223 based on an observation from fellow forum member Brian Roselle. In the pic below the detail in question is the small white blob seen above the edge of the door. This small white blob is the cuff of JBC's shirt at his right wrist.


The clip below begins at z222, the shirt cuff is seen just above the top edge of the limo door. By the very next frame (55milliseconds later) it has disappeared downwards, a very rapid movement. Up to this point JBC has been looking to his right, completely calm and composed. He's like this before he goes behind the Stemmons sign and is exactly the same when he first emerges from behind it. Suddenly he bursts into a flurry of activity. As the clip rolls a few things happen simultaneously - his hand is suddenly forced downwards then 'rebounds' upwards to face level. His right shoulder is pulled forward and downwards , rotating his body slightly, sending his left shoulder up and back. As all this happens the right side of his jacket bulges outward quite dramatically.



I believe this shows JBC's wrist being impacted by a bullet at z223. It drives his hand forcibly downwards which then rebounds upwards. The force of the impact drags his right shoulder forward and down causing his body to rotate slightly. The debris exiting his chest wound causes his jacket to bulge.
In the slightly extended clip below I would like to point out the position of JBC's wrist after all this initial activity has died down. To me it appears his wrist is at a really unnatural angle suggesting that his wrist can no longer support his hand due to the damage inflicted. It is also possible that the impact has damaged nerves causing some fingers to curl. It is possible JBC couldn't let go of his Stetson if he wanted to.

One of the upshots of the above analysis is that it highlights something that most "multi-Assassin" researchers seem really uncomfortable with - that both JFK and JBC were shot through at the same time, presumably by the same bullet. That both men sustained injury from a single bullet (the first shot of three assumed shots from the TSBD) seems to be some kind of Kryptonite but it is, as far as I'm concerned, clearly shown in the Zapruder footage. This does not mean, however, that I am in the "Oswald did it" camp. It's time to embrace the "Single Bullet" theory.

[John Tonkovich]

One of the upshots of the above analysis is that it highlights something that most "multi-Assassin" researchers seem really uncomfortable with - that both JFK and JBC were shot through at the same time, presumably by the same bullet. That both men sustained injury from a single bullet (the first shot of three assumed shots from the TSBD) seems to be some kind of Kryptonite but it is, as far as I'm concerned, clearly shown in the Zapruder footage. This does not mean, however, that I am in the "Oswald did it" camp. It's time to embrace the "Single Bullet" theory.

Mr O'meara:  Since JFK is not visible from z 208 to Z221, it's impossible to know exactly when he started reacting to being shot.

[Dan O'meara]

Mr O'meara:  Since JFK is not visible from z 208 to Z221, it's impossible to know exactly when he started reacting to being shot.

Obviously I completely disagree with your opinion on this and provide what evidence I can to determine when the first shot took place. The arguments I have presented in this thread have left me with the opinion that the first shot passes through both JFK and JBC at z223.
If there is a specific point about any of the arguments presented that you believe erroneous I would be happy to discuss it with you.