The First Shot

[Tom Graves]

You know there were 3 shots. Roberts and Bennett eventually said they recalled 3 shots. Ready never said how many. Hill and Landis recalled only two. So 7 out of 10 were right and are reliable.

It is a matter of probability. In this case, 7 of the ten saw JFk react to the first shot: Hickey, Hill, Landis, Kinney,  Roberts, Powers, and O'Donnell all said JFK reacted to the first shot. Ready didn't look at JFK. McIntyre did not look at JFK until the head shot. Bennett was not clear as his notes refer to only two shots but his later statement refers to three. He is the only one whose statement could be construed as a first shot miss if it weren't for that in his second statement he did not see the first one hit. He said he saw the hole in JFK's jacket immediately after the first shot when he said the second shot sounded. So that requires two immediate initial shots.

If the witnesses are independent, the chance that 7 out of 8 independently reporting the same thing that none of them saw is highly improbable in itself   For another dozen to independently report the same thing that none saw is orders of magnitude more improbable.  Then to have another 20 witnesses place the first shot after z186 which necessarily means it did not miss, makes it so highly improbable that the first shot missed as to be effectively zero.

Why would a Secret Service agent who was in the motorcade and who wanted to keep his job admit that there was an early loud "bang" that might have been a missing-everything shot?

[John Corbett]

You know there were 3 shots. Roberts and Bennett eventually said they recalled 3 shots. Ready never said how many. Hill and Landis recalled only two. So 7 out of 10 were right and are reliable.

Bennett always said there were 3 shots. His description of the shooting was the most accurate of all the people in the car. 7 out of 10 more or less got the story right but that is established by the forensic evidence, not their recollections which contain a number of inaccuracies.

It is a matter of probability. In this case, 7 of the ten saw JFk react to the first shot: Hickey, Hill, Landis, Kinney,  Roberts, Powers, and O'Donnell all said JFK reacted to the first shot. Ready didn't look at JFK. McIntyre did not look at JFK until the head shot. Bennett was not clear as his notes refer to only two shots but his later statement refers to three. He is the only one whose statement could be construed as a first shot miss if it weren't for that in his second statement he did not see the first one hit. He said he saw the hole in JFK's jacket immediately after the first shot when he said the second shot sounded. So that requires two immediate initial shots.

Probability has nothing to do with it. The forensic evidence establishes which parts of these accounts are right und which parts are wrong. There is plenty of both in these accounts.

If the witnesses are independent, the chance that 7 out of 8 independently reporting the same thing that none of them saw is highly improbable in itself   For another dozen to independently report the same thing that none saw is orders of magnitude more improbable.  Then to have another 20 witnesses place the first shot after z186 which necessarily means it did not miss, makes it so highly improbable that the first shot missed as to be effectively zero.

You continue to ignore the elephant in the room which is that these divergent accounts of the same event demonstrate just how fallible human memory is which is why I don't place much fuith in eyewitness accounts to determine what huppened. Only silly people do that.

[Andrew Mason]

Why would a Secret Service agent who was in the motorcade and who wanted to keep his job admit that there was an early loud "bang" that might have been a missing-everything shot?

They would have a much greater chance of losing their job by lying about what happened. Besides, it wasn’t just secret service agents who said that JFK reacted to the first shot. Powers, O’Donnell reported it as well, along with many others. Here is the list:
1. Nellie Connally
2. David Powers
3. Ken O’Donnell
4. Pierce Allman
5. Clint Hill
6. George Hickey
7. Sam Kinney
8. Emory Roberts
9. Paul Landis
10. Gayle Newman
11. William Newman
12. John Chism
13. Faye Chism
14. James Altgens
15. Abraham Zapruder
16. T.E. Moore
17. Linda Willis
18. Cecil Ault
19. Harold Norman
20. Malcolm Summers
21. Mary Moorman
22. Jean Newman
23. Charles Brehm
24. James Templin
25. Ernest Brandt

[Andrew Mason]

Bennett always said there were 3 shots. His description of the shooting was the most accurate of all the people in the car.

He mentions only two shots in his notes.

Probability has nothing to do with it.

That is where you are simply wrong. Tell that to a military intelligence officer figuring out what is about to happen based on random pieces of information, none of which can be trusted by themselves but all having something in common.

You continue to ignore the elephant in the room which is that these divergent accounts of the same event demonstrate just how fallible human memory is which is why I don't place much fuith in eyewitness accounts to determine what happened. Only silly people do that.

Yes. Silly people who sit as judges and juries…

[John Corbett]

He mentions only two shots in his notes.

BS. His notes say the same thing as his report. He heard the first shot while scanning the crowd on the right. He turned to look at JFK und saw the next two shots strike him. [/quote]

That is where you are simply wrong. Tell that to a military intelligence officer figuring out what is about to happen based on random pieces of information, none of which can be trusted by themselves but all having something in common.
Yes. Silly people who sit as judges and juries…
[/quote]

What do you know about military intelligence?

For that matter, what do you know about intelligence?