The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

I just noticed this zombie post from 6 years ago. You seemed to be less emphatic about your denial of an early first shot miss. You seemed more sensible back then.

As I pointed out in the thread about Clint Hill, the 9 occupants of the follow up car gave us 9 different versions of the shooting either in their reports or testimony. This demonstrates just how unreliable human memory can be even with trained professionals like Secret Service agents. It also shows how you can make a case for just about eny scenario you want based on the witnesses you choose to believe. It's why I take uncorroborated witness accounts with a grain of salt.

First of all, there were 10 occupants and they all provided statements. second, their observations were different because they were observing from different positions and looking in different directions at different times. Why would their observations be identical?  The question is: what did they all have in common? That tells you much more about what happened.

[John Corbett]

First of all, there were 10 occupants and they all provided statements. second, their observations were different because they were observing from different positions and looking in different directions at different times. Why would their observations be identical?  The question is: what did they all have in common? That tells you much more about what happened.

Not the number of shots.

Not the spacing of the shots.

Not which shot first hit JFK.

Not the elapsed time of the shots.

Minor details like that.

Yes, there were 10 men onboard. I failed to count Roberts himself when reading his report which stated the following:

The following persons departed Love Field in Secret Service Follow-up car, 679 X and were located in and on running boards of car as follows:

ATSAIC Emory P. Roberts--front seat--operating radio.
SA Samuel Kinney--driving (did an excellent job)
Mr. Kenneth O'Donnell, Appointment Secretary to the President, left jump seat.
Mr. David Powers, Presidential Aide, right jump seat.
SA Glen Bennett, left rear seat.
SA George Hickey, right rear seat (manning AR-15 (rifle)
SA Clinton Hill, left running board, front.
SA William Mclntyre, left running board, behind Hill.
SA John D. Ready, right running board, front.
SA Paul Landis, right running board behind Ready.

Note: On shift report for Nov. 22, 1963, I listed SA Rybka as riding in center of rear seat, which was in error, as he was not in car. As mentioned above, he remained at Love Field.

[Andrew Mason]

Not the number of shots. etc.

They all agreed that there were multiple loud noises which they attributed to gun shots. They all said they occurred after their car had completed the turn onto Elm and had proceeded down Elm St. and occurred at 12:30 pm.

Ready did not provide a number. Hill and Landis recalled two but did not say there were only two shots fired. Roberts was not sure if there were two or three, initially. McIntyre, Kinney, Powers, Hickey, and O’Donnell said there were exactly three shots. Bennett initially described two shots (in his notes) but later said there were three.

So what they have in common is:
1. the location
2. the time
3. that there were multiple shots of either two or three in number. 
4. that JFK was shot.

So their evidence is reliable to that extent. If we can rely on that evidence to establish those four facts, how can you say their evidence is worthless and can be ignored?

[John Corbett]

They all agreed that there were multiple loud noises which they attributed to gun shots. They all said they occurred after their car had completed the turn onto Elm and had proceeded down Elm St. and occurred at 12:30 pm.

WOW. That really narrows it down. We can conclude there were two or more shots fired sometime after the limo turned onto Elm st. Mystery solved.

Ready did not provide a number. Hill and Landis recalled two but did not say there were only two shots fired. Roberts was not sure if there were two or three, initially. McIntyre, Kinney, Powers, Hickey, and O’Donnell said there were exactly three shots. Bennett initially described two shots (in his notes) but later said there were three.

So what they have in common is:
1. the location
2. the time

We already knew that. That was never in doubt.

3. that there were multiple shots of either two or three in number. 
4. that JFK was shot.

You've really cracked the case.

So their evidence is reliable to that extent. If we can rely on that evidence to establish those four facts, how can you say their evidence is worthless and can be ignored?

You can't be serious. They all agreed JFK got shot dead in Dallas. How could  i ever doubt a witness again?

[Andrew Mason]

WOW. That really narrows it down. We can conclude there were two or more shots fired sometime after the limo turned onto Elm st. Mystery solved. 

We already knew that. That was never in doubt.
You've really cracked the case.
You can't be serious. They all agreed JFK got shot dead in Dallas. How could  i ever doubt a witness again?

The point is that the witnesses are reliable in establishing facts without trying to assess their ability or honesty. You seem to think witnesses are inherently unreliable.  They aren’t.

When multiple witnesses independently recall the same things, the likelihood that they were all independently wrong rapidly diminishes.

[John Corbett]

The point is that the witnesses are reliable in establishing facts without trying to assess their ability or honesty. You seem to think witnesses are inherently unreliable.  They aren’t.

When multiple witnesses independently recall the same things, the likelihood that they were all independently wrong rapidly diminishes.

How can 10 different witnesses giving 10 different versions of what happened establish anything as fact? It demonstrates that witnesses get somethings right und somethings wrong. Multiple people giving the same wrong account doesn't establish anything as fact. If one person can make a mistake, multiple people can make the same mistake. Even a large group of people can make the same mistake. A large group of people said all he shots cume from the GK und another large group said the shots cume from the TSBD. One of those large groups of people made the same mistake. 

[Andrew Mason]

How can 10 different witnesses giving 10 different versions of what happened establish anything as fact? It demonstrates that witnesses get somethings right und somethings wrong. Multiple people giving the same wrong account doesn't establish anything as fact. If one person can make a mistake, multiple people can make the same mistake. Even a large group of people can make the same mistake. A large group of people said all he shots cume from the GK und another large group said the shots cume from the TSBD. One of those large groups of people made the same mistake.

You know there were 3 shots. Roberts and Bennett eventually said they recalled 3 shots. Ready never said how many. Hill and Landis recalled only two. So 7 out of 10 were right and are reliable.

It is a matter of probability. In this case, 7 of the ten saw JFk react to the first shot: Hickey, Hill, Landis, Kinney,  Roberts, Powers, and O'Donnell all said JFK reacted to the first shot. Ready didn't look at JFK. McIntyre did not look at JFK until the head shot. Bennett was not clear as his notes refer to only two shots but his later statement refers to three. He is the only one whose statement could be construed as a first shot miss if it weren't for that in his second statement he did not see the first one hit. He said he saw the hole in JFK's jacket immediately after the first shot when he said the second shot sounded. So that requires two immediate initial shots.

If the witnesses are independent, the chance that 7 out of 8 independently reporting the same thing that none of them saw is highly improbable in itself   For another dozen to independently report the same thing that none saw is orders of magnitude more improbable.  Then to have another 20 witnesses place the first shot after z186 which necessarily means it did not miss, makes it so highly improbable that the first shot missed as to be effectively zero.