The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

There are a number of different ways to demonstrate that the first shot occurred around z222/z223. Here's one thanks to the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler. It concerns the witness statements of the occupants of the Vice-Presidential car and the Vice-Presidential follow-up car. From these statements it is possible to glean an approximate position for each car at the time of the first shot and from these approximate positions it is possible rule out various theories regarding the first shot.
I looked at a number of theories put forward for when the first shot occurred in relation to the Z-Film:

z133 (and before)
z160
z190
z222/z223 (my own proposal for the first shot)

First, a look at the statements:

VICE PRESIDENTIAL CAR

Hurchel Jacks [Driver] -
"My car had just straightened up from making the left turn. I was looking directly at the President’s car at that time. At that time I heard a shot ring out..."

Rufus Youngblood [Passenger Seat] -
"The motorcade then made a left turn, and the sidewalk crowds
were beginning to diminish in size. I observed a grassy plot to my right in back of a small crowd...I heard an explosion…"
"As we were beginning to go down this incline, all of a sudden there was an explosive noise."
"We had straightened on Elm now and were beginning to move easily down the incline in the wake of the cars ahead. Suddenly there was an explosive noise..."

Senator Yarborough [back left] - 
“as the motorcade went down the slope of Elm Street toward the railroad underpass, a rifle shot was heard by me; a loud blast..."

Lady Bird Johnson [back centre] - 
“we were rounding a curve, going down a hill and suddenly there was a sharp loud report..."
"...suddenly in that brilliant sunshine there was a sharp rifle shot. It  came, I thought, from over my right shoulder."

Lyndon Johnson [back right] - 
"After we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street, I heard a sharp report."

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL FOLLOW-UP CAR

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] -
“We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street and that was when I heard the first shot."


Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  - 
"...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a firecracker."

Jerry Kivett [back right] - 
"As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 the way to the underpass, traveling between 10 and 15 miles per hour, I heard a loud noise..."

Warren Taylor [back centre] -
“Our automobile had just turned a corner (the names of the streets are unknown to me) when I heard a bang which sounded to me like a possible firecracker —the sound coming from my right rear."

Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] - 
"We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill...which put the Texas Book Depository on our right, more or less...But we were going down this Elm Street, with my door open. I heard at least two shots.."

10 witnesses in 2 vehicles all corroborating each others statements. Not one or two ambiguous statements open to any kind of interpretation. Every single occupant of both cars are stating, basically, the same thing - at the time of the first shot these cars had turned off Houston Street and were travelling down Elm.
I now turn to the work of Mark Tyler to compare how these statements support or refute the various theories put forward.

Z133



In the image above the Vice-Presidential car is marked 7 and the follow-up car 8. It is obvious from this image that both vehicles are still on Houston at the time of this proposed first shot and, as such, a shot around z133 (or before) is absolutely refuted by the 10 witness statements.

Z160



Again, we can clearly see that, although car 7 is well into it's turn, car 8 is still on Houston. The theory of a first shot around z160 is refuted.

Z190



It can be said that car 7 is now travelling down Elm but car 8 is still to complete the turn as specified by the occupants of this car and, as such, a shot around z190 is refuted by the witness statements.

Z222/Z223



My own proposal.
It can be seen from the above image that both cars are now travelling on Elm after having completed the turn off Houston. There can be no doubt that this is the only theory that comes anywhere close to fitting the witness statements of the 10 occupants of these vehicles.
Yet further corroboration, if any were needed, that the first shot was the one that struck JFK in the throat around z222/z223.

[Tom Graves]

[...]

Dear danny BOY o'meara,

Instead of relying on sketchy, inherently unreliable witness statements, rely on the caught-on-film conscious (i.e., non-startle) reactions of seven prime witness to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124," half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 after a 17-second pause.

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

-- Tom

[Dan O'meara]

Dear danny BOY o'meara,

Instead of relying on sketchy, inherently unreliable witness statements, rely on the caught-on-film conscious (i.e., non-startle) reactions of seven prime witness to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124," half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133 after a 17-second pause.

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

-- Tom

When all 10 witnesses are saying the same thing we can be confident of the reliability of their statements (in the real world, that is).
Plus, they are pointing out something very simple - the position of their vehicles at the time of the first shot.
Combined with Mark Tyler's motorcade mapping program it is strong evidence refuting your own understanding of the shooting.
Look at the position of the vehicles prior to z133. They are both fully on Houston Street. In your fantasyland view of things all 10 occupants somehow mistakenly placed themselves travelling down Elm Street instead of still being on Houston Street. Just have a think about that for a moment. Think about this evidence.

As you know, the Roselle/Scearce study you have swallowed down hook, line and sinker has been discredited as a method for establishing when the first shot occurred after Brian conceded that they ASSUMED THERE WAS AN EARLY SHOT, THEN LOOKED AT THE Z-FILM TO SEE IF THERE WERE ANYTHING THAT COULD SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION.
Rather than acknowledge any of the considerable evidence pointing to a first shot at z222/z223, you still peddle this discredited theory because....well, that's what you're like.

[Tom Graves]

When all 10 witnesses are saying the same thing we can be confident of the reliability of their statements (in the real world, that is).
Plus, they are pointing out something very simple - the position of their vehicles at the time of the first shot.
Combined with Mark Tyler's motorcade mapping program it is strong evidence refuting your own understanding of the shooting.
Look at the position of the vehicles prior to z133. They are both fully on Houston Street. In your fantasyland view of things all 10 occupants somehow mistakenly placed themselves travelling down Elm Street instead of still being on Houston Street. Just have a think about that for a moment. Think about this evidence.

As you know, the Roselle/Scearce study you have swallowed down hook, line and sinker has been discredited as a method for establishing when the first shot occurred after Brian conceded that they ASSUMED THERE WAS AN EARLY SHOT, THEN LOOKED AT THE Z-FILM TO SEE IF THERE WERE ANYTHING THAT COULD SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION.
Rather than acknowledge any of the considerable evidence pointing to a first shot at z222/z223, you still peddle this discredited theory because....well, that's what you're like.

Dear danny BOY o'meara,

It's too bad that you don't have the intellectual integrity to look at the head movements of JFK, Jackie, Connally, Nellie, and Kellerman that Roselle and Scearce detected between Z-142 and Z-149.

-- Tom

[Andrew Mason]

There are a number of different ways to demonstrate that the first shot occurred around z222/z223. Here's one thanks to the work of Pat Speer and Mark Tyler. It concerns the witness statements of the occupants of the Vice-Presidential car and the Vice-Presidential follow-up car. From these statements it is possible to glean an approximate position for each car at the time of the first shot and from these approximate positions it is possible rule out various theories regarding the first shot.
I looked at a number of theories put forward for when the first shot occurred in relation to the Z-Film:

z133 (and before)
z160
z190
z222/z223 (my own proposal for the first shot)

First, a look at the statements:

…

VICE-PRESIDENTIAL FOLLOW-UP CAR

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] -
“We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street and that was when I heard the first shot."


Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  - 
"...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building when I heard a noise which sounded like a firecracker."

Jerry Kivett [back right] - 
"As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 the way to the underpass, traveling between 10 and 15 miles per hour, I heard a loud noise..."

Warren Taylor [back centre] -
“Our automobile had just turned a corner (the names of the streets are unknown to me) when I heard a bang which sounded to me like a possible firecracker —the sound coming from my right rear."

Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] - 
"We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill...which put the Texas Book Depository on our right, more or less...But we were going down this Elm Street, with my door open. I heard at least two shots.."[/b]

10 witnesses in 2 vehicles all corroborating each others statements. Not one or two ambiguous statements open to any kind of interpretation. Every single occupant of both cars are stating, basically, the same thing - at the time of the first shot these cars had turned off Houston Street and were travelling down Elm.
I now turn to the work of Mark Tyler to compare how these statements support or refute the various theories put forward.

[
Z190



It can be said that car 7 is now travelling down Elm but car 8 is still to complete the turn as specified by the occupants of this car and, as such, a shot around z190 is refuted by the witness statements.

Z222/Z223



My own proposal.
It can be seen from the above image that both cars are now travelling on Elm after having completed the turn off Houston. There can be no doubt that this is the only theory that comes anywhere close to fitting the witness statements of the 10 occupants of these vehicles.
Yet further corroboration, if any were needed, that the first shot was the one that struck JFK in the throat around z222/z223.

z190 is, arguably, a reasonable fit with the evidence. According to Carter the VP security car had turned off Houston and their car was “right along side” the TSBD. If the VP car had just straightened up from the turn, the VP security car would have been a full car length + 5-10 feet behind. That would be a bit more than a full second behind.  Mrs. Cabell said they had just started to turn and when she heard the first shot she immediately looked up directly in front of her and was looking directly at the rifle in the 6th floor window.  At z222 her car is turned well past that point.

A shot at z190 or so would also fit the recollection of Phil Willis that his z202 photo was taken an instant after the first shot.

[Jack Nessan]

In Motorcade 63, DPD Baker was located on Houston Street when he saw the pigeons fly up from the top of the TSBD. Mr Belin measured his position as being 60 to 80 feet North of the Main Street curb. According to Motorcade 63, that places the limousine at Z205 to Z225. 

Mr. BAKER - We appreoximated it was 60 to 80 feet there, north of the north curbline of Main on Houston.

Mr. BELIN - All right. Did you see or hear or do anything else after you heard the first noise?
Mr. BAKER - Yes, sir. As I was looking up, all these pigeons began to fly up to the top of the buildings here and I saw those come up and start flying around.

[Andrew Mason]

In Motorcade 63, DPD Baker was located on Houston Street when he saw the pigeons fly up from the top of the TSBD. Mr Belin measured his position as being 60 to 80 feet North of the Main Street curb. According to Motorcade 63, that places the limousine at Z205 to Z225. 

Mr. BAKER - We appreoximated it was 60 to 80 feet there, north of the north curbline of Main on Houston.

Mr. BELIN - All right. Did you see or hear or do anything else after you heard the first noise?
Mr. BAKER - Yes, sir. As I was looking up, all these pigeons began to fly up to the top of the buildings here and I saw those come up and start flying around.

Given the approximate nature of that kind of estimate and correlation to the zfilm it does not exclude the possibility of a shot fitting with Phil Willis’ evidence of a first shot just before z202.