The First Shot

[John Mytton]

The blurs on the Z-film largest to smallest:

1. Z312-Z318 Kennedy (Rear)
2. Z330-Z334 Kennedy (Front) (My Opinion)
3. Z191-Z197 ?
4. Z220-Z228 Kennedy/Connally (Rear)
5. Z158-Z160 Missed Shot (Rear)
6. Z290-Z293 ?

I looked at the shot jiggles at various point in the Zapruder Film and found that up to and including the headshot, Zapruder had 3 vertical jumps. And working backwards from the obvious headshot which confirmed the vertical jiggle a few frames later, next we have the SBF jiggle happening a few frames after Kennedy and Connally simultaneously react and then we come to the first jiggle which can be confirmed by Rosemary Willis hearing a gunshot and slowing down.

Zapruder also has some horizontal panning corrections which result in what appear to be horizontal jiggles but by studying the frames after the headshot and the SBF, we know how Zapruder reacted to the sounds of gunshots.



We also have the testimony from Connally that states he heard a gunshot(the first) and turned to look over his right shoulder. We can also see at the same time, Kennedy's quick head snap to the right.



JohnM

[Jarrett Smith]

If Oswald missed everything half-a-second before Zapruder resumed filming at Z-133, it would have caused no "blur" on his film, would it.

Comrade Graves, there is no proof of a shot that early. Both men react around Z-160 as John Mytton's video sequence shows.

[Tom Graves]

Comrade Graves, there is no proof of a shot that early. Both men react around Z-160 as John Mytton's video sequence shows.

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

Have you read Roselle's and Scearce's article?

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

-- Tom

[Andrew Mason]

Comrade Graves, there is no proof of a shot that early. Both men react around Z-160 as John Mytton's video sequence shows.

That turn could not possibly be a reaction to Mary Woodward shouting to the President to look her way, after which he turned and smiled and waved as the car passed by - and then the first horrible ear-shattering noise was heard, because.....

[Andrew Mason]

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

Have you read Roselle's and Scearce's article?

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

-- Tom

Thanks for posting the link.

The article does not clearly explain why the actions of the persons in the President's car and follow up are "reactions" to an external stimulus and not simply normal movements of people in a motorcade acknowledging people on both sides of the street as they pass through (ie. not re-actions to any stimulus).

It seems that the authors take the view that there are voluntary movements of several people within a narrow time-frame and compares these times to the reaction times of a sample number of persons to a surprise stimulus.  I see a number of problems with this:

• They do not use the objectively documented actions and their timings between z140-150.  They use the observations of two different people looking at the zfilm and their timings of what they observed to be actions.
  
• When looking at the film, the things that the observers purport to observe are grossly exaggerated.  There is no action by JFK (always looking left).  There is a slight gradual leftward turn by Jackie of the kind that she was doing throughout the motorcade.  There is no visible change at all in Kellerman's head position (always looking right). Rosemary Willis just continues running without any visible change in her head position. George Hickey does take a clear action but the film itself provides alternative explanations: for example, he turns to look forward-left and down, possibly at the feet of two persons who have ventured onto the pavement as the motorcycles approach them or possibly because someone shouted at them to get off the road and he reacted to that.
• The authors do not deal with the fact that people in a motorcade with crowds on both sides, are continually moving their heads and arms to acknowledge the crowd or looking at the crowd for signs of danger.
• The authors don't attribute any weight to what observers at the scene said about the timing of the shots and, in particular, the first shot.  The fact is that not a single person said that JFK smiled and waved at all after the first shot, let alone for over 4-5 seconds after (z124 to z193 or z223), but 20+ said he reacted immediately to the first shot by moving left, assuming a blank stare, clutching with his hands in front.  It appears that the authors consider this evidence to be less reliable than their "scientific" approach. They do not attempt to explain the probability of so many people all saying that JFK reacted immediately and all being incorrect, or the probability of none saying that he smiled and waved after the shot, which he is clearly doing up to z193.

[Jarrett Smith]

Dear Jarrett "Useful Idiot" Smith,

Have you read Roselle's and Scearce's article?

https://d7922adf-f499-4a26-96d4-8ab2d521fa35.usrfiles.com/ugd/d7922a_e280e26982b44f2c97c6e6e27026e385.pdf

-- Tom

Yes, but their times are wrong according to the testimonies of the people in the car.

Roy Kellerman Z-148 Begins leaning over and looking behind/down to the right.

Mr. KELLERMAN. As we turned off Houston onto Elm and made the short little dip to the left going down grade, as I said, we were away from buildings, and were there was a sign on the side of the road which I don't recall what it was or what it said, but we no more than passed that and you are out in the open, and there is a report like a firecracker, pop. And I turned my head to the right because whatever this noise was I was sure that it came from the right and perhaps into the rear, and as I turned my head to the right to view whatever it was or see whatever it was, I heard a voice from the back seat and I firmly believe it was the President's, "My God, I am hit," and I turned around and he has got his hands up here like this.

George Hickey Z-143 Begins leaning over to the left looking down in the direction of the rear tire or ground.

Mr. HICKEY. Just prior to the shooting I was seated in the rear of SS-679-X on the left side. As 100-X made the turn and proceeded a short distance I heard what seemed to me that a firecracker exploded to the right and rear. I stood partially up and turned to the rear to see if I could observe anything. Nothing was observed and I turned around and looked at the President's car. The President was slumped to the left in the car, and I observed him come up. I heard what appeared to be two shots and it seemed as if the right side of his head was hit and his hair flew forward.

John Connally Z-150 Begins a quick head turn left (followed by quickly looking back right)

Governor CONNALLY. We had--we had gone, I guess, 150 feet, maybe 200 feet, I don't recall how far it was, heading down to get on the freeway, the Stemmons Freeway, to go out to the hall where we were going to have lunch and, as I say, the crowds had begun to thin, and we could--I was anticipating that we were going to be at the hall in approximately 5 minutes from the time we turned on Elm Street. We had just made the turn, well, when I heard what I thought was a shot. I heard this noise which I immediately took to be a rifle shot. I instinctively turned to my right because the sound appeared to come from over my right shoulder, so I turned to look back over my right shoulder, and I saw nothing unusual except just people in the crowd, but I did not catch the President in the corner of my eye, and I was interested, because once I heard the shot in my own mind I identified it as a rifle shot, and I immediately--the only thought that crossed my mind was that this is an assassination attempt. So I looked, failing to see him, I was turning to look back over my left shoulder into the back seat, but I never got that far in my turn. I got about in the position I am in now facing you, looking a little bit to the left of center, and then I felt like someone had hit me in the back.

Nellie Connally Z-145 Begins a quick sweeping head turn to the right

Mrs. CONNALLY. In fact the receptions had been. so good every place that I had showed much restraint by not mentioning something about it before. I could resist no longer. When we got past this area I did turn to the President and said, "Mr. President, you can't say Dallas doesn't love you." Then I don't know how soon, it seems to me it was very soon, that I heard a noise, and not
being an expert rifleman, I was not aware that it was a rifle. It was just a frightening noise, and it came from the right. I turned over my right shoulder and looked back, and saw the President as he had both hands at his neck.
Mr. SPECTER. And you are indicating with your own hands, two hands crossing over gripping your own neck?
Mrs. CONNALLY. Yes; and it seemed to me there was he made no utterance, no cry. I saw no blood, no anything. It was just sort of nothing, the expression on his face, and he just sort of
slumped down. Then very soon there was the second shot that hit John. As the first shot was hit, and I turned to look at the same time, I recall John saying, "Oh, no, no, no." Then there was a second shot, and it hit John, and as he recoiled to the right, just crumpled like a wounded animal to the right, he said, "My God, they are going to kill us all."

Jackie Kennedy Z-143 Starts accelerated head turning left, before looking back right. (Similar to John Connally’s L-R head motion but starts slightly earlier & ends slightly later than his)

Mrs. KENNEDY. You know, there is always noise in a motorcade and there are always motorcycles, besides us, a lot of them backfiring. So I was looking to the left. I guess there was a noise, but it didn't seem like any different noise really because there is so much noise, motorcycles and things. But then suddenly Governor Connally was yelling, "Oh, no, no, no."
Mr. RANKIN. Did he turn toward you?
Mrs. KENNEDY. No; I was looking this way, to the left, and I heard these terrible noises. You know. And my husband never made any sound. So I turned to the right. And all I remember is seeing my husband, he had this sort of quizzical look on his face, and his hand was up, it must have been his left hand. And just as I turned and looked at him, I could see a piece of his skull and I remember it was flesh colored. I remember thinking he just looked as if he had a slight headache. And I just remember seeing that. No blood or anything.
And then he sort of did this [indicating], put his hand to his forehead and fell in my lap. And then I just remember falling on him and saying, "Oh, no, no, no," I mean, "Oh, my God, they have shot my husband." And "I love you, Jack," I remember I was shouting. And just being down in the car with his head in my lap. And it just seemed an eternity. You know, then, there were pictures later on of me climbing out the back. But I don't remember that at all.

[Dan O'meara]

The Scearce/Roselle 'study' that Tom and Benjamin seem so keen on is an absolute crock.
The fact that they've deliberately omitted the recollections of the witnesses regarding the first shot tells us all we need to know. The witness statements are omitted because they all contradict the wishful thinking Scearce and Roselle are trying manifest.
This thread is packed full of evidence demolishing the notion of such an early shot.