The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

lamborghini aventador doors open

Above is a crop from Bronson with various witnesses (poorly) labeled.
The pic is lifted from Pat Speer's site where he equates this pic to approximately z225
The limo has just passed Templin, Brandt and Newman.
It is just passing Burney and Dishong.
It is almost in front of the Chisms
Charles Brehm is further down the road.

As I was reading Jack's post I realised something I should've realised a lot earlier in this thread.
Although witness statements are often contradictory and unreliable when it comes to certain details, there is surely a basic fact the people who were stood on both sides of Elm Street could be sure of - whether or not the limo had passed their position when they heard the first shot.
These are the witness statements from right to left.

John Templin -  I would say, thirty feet past us, we heard what I personally thought was a motorcycle backfire, and I... the president kind of threw his shoulders up a little bit and kind of laid his head back on the back of the seat,

Ernest Brandt - And of course, all I could see above the back seat was his shoulders, his neck, and head…I think the limousine was probably about 60 or 70 feet past us, three or four seconds I guess from the time. It wasn't moving real slow but yet not real fast either, y'know. And--60 or 70 feet past us, then BAM!

Jean Newman - The motorcade had just passed me when I heard something that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report...

Peggy Burney -  The car had passed about 15 feet beyond me when I heard the first shot.

June Dishong - His arm in the air waving… He drops his arm as they go by, possibly 20 feet. Suddenly--a sound. Gun shots?

Faye Chism - “As the President was coming through, I heard this first shot,

John Chism - And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved to the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot,

Charles Brehm - I happened to be about fifteen feet away from the President when the first shot hit him...the first shot rang out and I was positive when I saw the look on his face and saw him grab his chest and saw the reaction of his wife that he had been shot.

Templin, Brandt, Newman, Burney and Dishong all state that the limo had just passed them when the first shot sounded.
Brehm states he was looking at JFK's face after the first shot, the limo had not yet reached his position.

The Bronson pic above seems to have pretty much captured the position of the limo as described by the witnesses standing close by on Elm Street. Below is a stripped down version of Dom Roberdeau's map which gives an approximate idea of where the limo was in terms of Z-frames:



Yet again, all theories about when the first shot occurred, other than my own, are refuted by the above evidence.

[Jerry Organ]

You have yet to show the view from Zapruder's position of the two men in the car as you have positioned them.

Actually, I think you're the one lacking Zapruder views.

I have shown that JBC was sitting in the middle of his seat in z193 and that JFK was sitting to the right side of his seat but with his right shoulder inside the car.  His rib cage not pressed against the car.  So there are at least 2 inches between the armpit and the side wall of the compartment.  His right elbow was out to the right and leaning on the top of the car.    His right armpit is 8 inches from his spine.  So JFK's midline would have been at least 10 inches inside the car.

Mason's Voodoo Geometry.

I do have a day job, Jerry.  Besides, I use the free version.

You are in an occupation where lying and distorting reality is rewarded.

BTW, a competent graphic artist can render realistic settings with the old stand-alone version of SketchUp. I'm still finding free models I can import. I just can't buy any extensions, even I needed them. My models would look a lot better aesthetically if I had a $600 rendering program, but that's not going to happen.

How about I send mine to you and you can fix it up?

When I did that, I discovered the only way you could make your models look similar to how the men appeared in the Zapruder film was to distort perspective.



Anyone can compare your position of Kennedy with Z193 and see you have Kennedy much too far to his right.

[Jack Nessan]

lamborghini aventador doors open

Above is a crop from Bronson with various witnesses (poorly) labeled.
The pic is lifted from Pat Speer's site where he equates this pic to approximately z225
The limo has just passed Templin, Brandt and Newman.
It is just passing Burney and Dishong.
It is almost in front of the Chisms
Charles Brehm is further down the road.

As I was reading Jack's post I realised something I should've realised a lot earlier in this thread.
Although witness statements are often contradictory and unreliable when it comes to certain details, there is surely a basic fact the people who were stood on both sides of Elm Street could be sure of - whether or not the limo had passed their position when they heard the first shot.
These are the witness statements from right to left.

John Templin -  I would say, thirty feet past us, we heard what I personally thought was a motorcycle backfire, and I... the president kind of threw his shoulders up a little bit and kind of laid his head back on the back of the seat,

Ernest Brandt - And of course, all I could see above the back seat was his shoulders, his neck, and head…I think the limousine was probably about 60 or 70 feet past us, three or four seconds I guess from the time. It wasn't moving real slow but yet not real fast either, y'know. And--60 or 70 feet past us, then BAM!

Jean Newman - The motorcade had just passed me when I heard something that I thought was a firecracker at first, and the President had just passed me, because after he had just passed, there was a loud report...

Peggy Burney -  The car had passed about 15 feet beyond me when I heard the first shot.

June Dishong - His arm in the air waving… He drops his arm as they go by, possibly 20 feet. Suddenly--a sound. Gun shots?

Faye Chism - “As the President was coming through, I heard this first shot,

John Chism - And just as he got just about in front of me, he turned and waved to the crowd on this side of the street, the right side; at this point I heard what sounded like one shot,

Charles Brehm - I happened to be about fifteen feet away from the President when the first shot hit him...the first shot rang out and I was positive when I saw the look on his face and saw him grab his chest and saw the reaction of his wife that he had been shot.

Templin, Brandt, Newman, Burney and Dishong all state that the limo had just passed them when the first shot sounded.
Brehm states he was looking at JFK's face after the first shot, the limo had not yet reached his position.

The Bronson pic above seems to have pretty much captured the position of the limo as described by the witnesses standing close by on Elm Street. Below is a stripped down version of Dom Roberdeau's map which gives an approximate idea of where the limo was in terms of Z-frames:



Yet again, all theories about when the first shot occurred, other than my own, are refuted by the above evidence.

Yet again, all theories about when the first shot occurred, other than my own, are refuted by the above evidence.
[/quote]

No.

Nice try. A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames. The whole discussion could have taken place on two pages instead of 145 pages over three years. Every Z frame is considered to be approximately 1 foot of movement. The difference between a first shot at Z214 compared to Z223 is negligible and has no value in understanding the assassination. What does matter is the fact there were only two shots versus the media reported three shots, which all but erases any doubt about the possibility of a conspiracy.

 The JFK assassination can be reduced to Merriman Smith reported there were three shots, Walter Cronkite read Smith’s bulletin that there were three shots, the media’s influence took over and people changed their statements into concluding there were three shots. 

The Bronson photo is considered to be Z229. 

Roberdeau believed the occupants were already reacting to having been shot at Z224. Z223 is not the location of the first shot. 

 

[Dan O'meara]

Yet again, all theories about when the first shot occurred, other than my own, are refuted by the above evidence.


No.

Thanks to you, Jack, it's another big fat "yes"
Yet another piece of confirmation that the first shot was at z222/z223.
Breaking the various witness statements down to a most basic, salient fact - had the limo passed the witness position at the time of the first shot.
Collating this basic element from multiple witness statements then comparing the witness positions to the known position of the limo at various Z-frames and Hey Presto! - The Nessan Conjunction.

Nice try. A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames. The whole discussion could have taken place on two pages instead of 145 pages over three years.

This could have been settled at the beginning if people like yourself were open to reason.
This thread has consisted mainly of dealing with people peddling their own pet theories and none have stood up to the barrage of evidence and arguments presented in this thread. But none - not one - will change one iota of their theories, regardless of how smashed to pieces these theories are. Not a single person has ever changed a single detail about their theories, even in the face of evidence unequivocally destroying that theory.

And here we go again. 145 pages and suddenly we have a new contender for when the first shot occurred - z210 to z214
Have you always thought this Jack or are you just pulling this out of thin air?

A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames.

So, "based on Zapruder Frames" a better location for the first shot would be z210 to z214.
Obviously, at this time in the Z-film both JFK and JBC are obscured by the Stemmons sign, so I have to ask - what is it in the Z-frames you are basing this moment as the first shot on.
Remember, you said "based on Zapruder Frames".

Also, at z210 to z214 the limo has not passed witnesses Templin, Brandt, Newman, Burney and Dishong, who all stated the limo had passed them before the first shot rang out.
So your new proposition for when the first shot occurs fails the Nessan Conjunction.

Every Z frame is considered to be approximately 1 foot of movement. The difference between a first shot at Z214 compared to Z223 is negligible and has no value in understanding the assassination.

Then why are you disputing that the first shot occurred at z222/z223?

What does matter is the fact there were only two shots versus the media reported three shots, which all but erases any doubt about the possibility of a conspiracy.

 The JFK assassination can be reduced to Merriman Smith reported there were three shots, Walter Cronkite read Smith’s bulletin that there were three shots, the media’s influence took over and people changed their statements into concluding there were three shots. 

Yawn.
Start your own thread about it. it's really easy to do.

The Bronson photo is considered to be Z229. 

This is quite an important detail as far as the Nessan Conjunction is concerned. Why do you propose the Bronson pic is at z229

Roberdeau believed the occupants were already reacting to having been shot at Z224. Z223 is not the location of the first shot.

What is he basing that on?

[Jack Nessan]

Thanks to you, Jack, it's another big fat "yes"
Yet another piece of confirmation that the first shot was at z222/z223.
Breaking the various witness statements down to a most basic, salient fact - had the limo passed the witness position at the time of the first shot.
Collating this basic element from multiple witness statements then comparing the witness positions to the known position of the limo at various Z-frames and Hey Presto! - The Nessan Conjunction.

This could have been settled at the beginning if people like yourself were open to reason.
This thread has consisted mainly of dealing with people peddling their own pet theories and none have stood up to the barrage of evidence and arguments presented in this thread. But none - not one - will change one iota of their theories, regardless of how smashed to pieces these theories are. Not a single person has ever changed a single detail about their theories, even in the face of evidence unequivocally destroying that theory.

And here we go again. 145 pages and suddenly we have a new contender for when the first shot occurred - z210 to z214
Have you always thought this Jack or are you just pulling this out of thin air?

A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames.

So, "based on Zapruder Frames" a better location for the first shot would be z210 to z214.
Obviously, at this time in the Z-film both JFK and JBC are obscured by the Stemmons sign, so I have to ask - what is it in the Z-frames you are basing this moment as the first shot on.
Remember, you said "based on Zapruder Frames".

Also, at z210 to z214 the limo has not passed witnesses Templin, Brandt, Newman, Burney and Dishong, who all stated the limo had passed them before the first shot rang out.
So your new proposition for when the first shot occurs fails the Nessan Conjunction.

Then why are you disputing that the first shot occurred at z222/z223?

Yawn.
Start your own thread about it. it's really easy to do.

This is quite an important detail as far as the Nessan Conjunction is concerned. Why do you propose the Bronson pic is at z229

What is he basing that on?

[b]Thanks to you, Jack, it's another big fat "yes"
Yet another piece of confirmation that the first shot was at z222/z223[/b]

No

All of these witness statements were originally posted on page 10. For whatever reason you chose to ignore them. The actual location of the actual shot will never be known because the sign obscured the view. The number of shots is important, but the actual precise location of the first shot is not. He was shot after Z210 and definitely before Z224. Everything after that is just interpretation.

I know he was not shot at Z223 because he is reacting to having been shot at Z223. An average person’s reaction time to stimuli is estimated to be approximately 0.5 seconds or 10 Z frames. You are equating JFK reacting to having been shot as being the same time as him being shot. It is a general rule of have a ½ second reaction time from wanting to react and actually reacting.

The Limo’s dimensions are 21.25 feet long with a 13- foot wheelbase. Based on the Bronson photo there is approximately 15 feet between the Chisms and Jean Newman. Use everything you can to estimate not just the Z frames. The Z frames were the most helpful.

Roberdeau’s map, that you posted, has the Z224 “JFK already reacting by Z224-Z225 to bullets impact” wording. It is surprising you did not notice this wording as it was located right by the Z225 symbol. I would think you would have to have edited his statement out before you posted the map. Remember this is where he is reacting to having been shot, not where he was shot.

Unfortunately, the conversation always revolves around all the shots not just the first. You need to go back and read the first pages of the thread. You believe you are controlling the conversation to just the first shot, but you are not, based on the early missed shot theory being an attempt to create longer time for the firing of three shots. Simply put, the proponents of this theory are trying to compensate for the time to work the bolt. Only Two shots having been fired is the answer and answers all questions and scenarios. Understanding this simple concept is actually a letdown given there are 60 years of imaginative conspiracy theories that are definitely more interesting than LHO fired two shots -- end of story. 

Someone once had a thread about the number of shots. The fact there is absolutely no proof of three shots pretty much ended the thread after a few pages. It was all about witness statement interpretations because there is not any physical evidence of a third shot.

Believing in three shots is faith based and that is all. Shot three as a miss is actually strange given the amount of witnesses who state there wasn’t a shot after the headshot.

[Zeon Mason]

Generally, so far , I’m still in agreement with Dan that the 1st shot that 2/3 majority of witnesses heard , was at Z223.

However, this is contingent upon how the 1st shot struck JFK.

If it’s an earlier shot at Z190-200then it has to be a shot that went thru only a very minimal amount of mass, such as thru the neck area only, such that there is no discernible movement of JFKs body forward. The bullet entered and exited so quickly that virtually no transfer of momentum occurred.

The resultant movements by JFKs arms and his lurch forward at Z-233-226 therefore are theoretically delayed nervous system response.

If this is basically Andrew Masons theory then the SBT is not viable and  a 2nd shot that missed JFK , yet hit Connally requires TWO shooters , because Mr Jerry Organs computer diagrams of the position of JFK relative to Connally  do not allow a 2nd shot from the SE window angle to be able to hit Connally without having passed thru some part of JFKs body.

The simpler theory is that the Z223 is the 1st shot and hit JFK lower than the neck , and because the bullet went thru a larger mass of the body , there WAS transfer of momentum occurring that causes the lurch forward of JFK as well as the counterclockwise turn of Connallys right shoulder when that SAME bullet entered the back of Connally.

The problem However. Is that an SBT straight line trajectory does NOT work for this scenario either, as the Beyond Conspiracy experiment showed, the bullet entered the back of the JFK replica model and exited much lower than the throat , actually exiting thru approximately the right upper chest area of the JFK model.

It leaves that the SBT trajectory line was NOT straight and the bullet must have had some % of zig zagging occurring after striking JFK in the back , and as it zagged thru the body upward slightly and then thru the neck, there was enough momentum transferred by the bullet to cause the lurch forward from Z-223-226.

For Andrew Masons trajectory lines to work, for a 2nd shot that independently struck Connally , Mr. Masons diagram of the position of JFK having his right side arm and shoulder further inward so as to allow a shot just past JFK , seems not as substantiated by the Z film frames as does Jerry Organs diagrams that show JFKs right arm resting on the outer edge of the door.

Even in a 2 shooter scenario, and there was a 1st shot just thru the throat of JFK that did not transfer any momentum, and which shot disappeared onto grass by the manhole cover or struck the curb near Tague, then what explanation for the autopsy photo showing a hole in the BACK of JFK?

[Andrew Mason]

For Andrew Masons trajectory lines to work, for a 2nd shot that independently struck Connally , Mr. Masons diagram of the position of JFK having his right side arm and shoulder further inward so as to allow a shot just past JFK , seems not as substantiated by the Z film frames as does Jerry Organs diagrams that show JFKs right arm resting on the outer edge of the door.

There is a lot of evidence that the second shot struck Connally: the Connallys, Gayle Newman for example. Dave Powers, Wm. Greer also indicate that the second shot struck in the car. And James Tague also said he was hit on the second shot which means the second shot hit something before and a fragment struck the curb. Geo. Hickey said that the second shot seemed to miss JFK because he saw JFK's hair on the right side of his head fly up on the second shot. Keep in mind that JFK had moved quite far to the left by this time (z270), as Dave Powers mentioned. His right arm was definitely not on the outer edge of the car.

With JFK leaning to the left at z270, a shot just to JFK's right side goes directly into the right side of Gov. Connally.

[Dan O'meara]

[b]Thanks to you, Jack, it's another big fat "yes"
Yet another piece of confirmation that the first shot was at z222/z223[/b]

No

I am presenting a method by which the location and timing of the first shot can be pin-pointed with a large degree of accuracy:

Focusing on the witness testimony of those closest to the limo at the time of the shooting.
Stripping their various testimonies down to one salient point - had JFK passed their position or not at the time of the first shot.
Establishing the position of these witnesses on a schematic that also shows us the position of JFK at various Z-frames.

By doing this we come to the realisation that all previous theories regarding when the first shot happened are refuted with the exception of my own theory - a first shot strike of JFK at z222/z223.
It is customary for someone opposing this method to critique it - what are it's weaknesses, it's strengths, where might I be going wrong with the theory, what can be improved.
Instead you simply write the word, "No".
No counter-evidence to support  an argument, no evidence offered whatsoever, just your opinion, seemingly based on nothing.

All of these witness statements were originally posted on page 10. For whatever reason you chose to ignore them.

I simply didn't realise the importance of them at the time.
This whole thread could've ended around then because I believe this evidence regarding when the first shot happened is really strong and very difficult to argue against [in a sane way, that actually involves providing evidence to support a counter-argument, rather than just blurting out an unsupported opinion.]
It's such a simple and obvious way to pinpoint where and when the first shot occurred that i'm embarrassed it took me so long to see it.
But it's better late than never, and I have you to thank for opening my eyes to this very powerful confirmation of my proposal for when the first shot occurred.

The actual location of the actual shot will never be known because the sign obscured the view. The number of shots is important, but the actual precise location of the first shot is not. He was shot after Z210 and definitely before Z224. Everything after that is just interpretation.

Do you know what, Jack? Your big pronouncements, unsupported by any evidence, are starting to get a little boring.

He was shot after Z210 and definitely before Z224

What evidence are you providing to support this statement? In a previous post you wrote:

A better location for the first shot would be Z210 to Z214 based on Zapruder Frames.

No evidence to support this claim, just a big pronouncement.
I knew this was utter garbage because both JFK and JBC were behind the Stemmons sign at this time, so I wrote:

So, "based on Zapruder Frames" a better location for the first shot would be z210 to z214.
Obviously, at this time in the Z-film both JFK and JBC are obscured by the Stemmons sign, so I have to ask - what is it in the Z-frames you are basing this moment as the first shot on?
Remember, you said "based on Zapruder Frames".

Unsurprisingly you failed to answer.
The question still stands - what are you basing this big pronouncement on?

I know he was not shot at Z223 because he is reacting to having been shot at Z223.

Yet another big pronouncement with no evidence to back it up.
And more utter nonsense.
JFK can't even be seen in z223!!
Yet Jack can see behind the sign, he can see JFK and JBC get shot behind the sign and he can see JFK reacting behind the sign!
Amazing.
What is this big pronouncement based on?

An average person’s reaction time to stimuli is estimated to be approximately 0.5 seconds or 10 Z frames. You are equating JFK reacting to having been shot as being the same time as him being shot. It is a general rule of have a ½ second reaction time from wanting to react and actually reacting.

And yet another big pronouncement with no evidence to back it up

It is a general rule of have a ½ second reaction time from wanting to react and actually reacting.


Is it?
Is it really?
I've never heard of this "general rule".
Is it something you've just made up, by any chance?

I found this information in a few seconds on Google:

“The average reaction time for a visual stimulus is about 250 milliseconds. The average reaction time for an auditory stimulus is about 170 milliseconds and for a touch stimulus 150 milliseconds.” [https://www.onaverage.co.uk/other-averages/average-reaction-time]

150 milliseconds for touch - that's 3 Z-frames.
Do you do any research?
More importantly, the bullet passes through the Brachial Plexus [something I researched] directly damaging JFK's central nervous system, causing a rapid reflex action:

"A reflex, or reflex action, is an involuntary and nearly instantaneous movement in response to a stimulus. A reflex is made possible by neural pathways called reflex arcs which can act on an impulse before that impulse reaches the brain. The reflex is then an automatic response to a stimulus that does not receive or need conscious thought."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflex

Also, in Reply#1103, I provided scientific evidence that a reflex reaction can be detected within 2 Z-frames. This evidence was published in the British journal, Brain (Brown P, Rothwell JC, Thompson PD, Britton TC, Day BL, and Marsden CD. New observations on the normal auditory startle reflex in man. Brain 1991; 114:1891-1902):
I have provided scientific expertise to back up my claim that a physical reflex response can be detected in 2 Z-frames.
What have you provided?

And just to help you out, here's a little research done on your behalf.
Your half second "general rule" is not a reference to how quick a reflex action is, it's a reference to how quickly the human mind becomes consciously aware of a sensory experience:

"Human thought takes time to form, and so the “right now” that we’re experiencing inside our skulls is always a little later than what’s going on in the outside world. It takes 500 milliseconds, or half a second, for sensory information from the outside world to be incorporated into conscious experience."

[https://nymag.com/speed/2016/12/what-is-the-speed-of-thought.html#:~:text=Human%20thought%20takes%20time%20to,be%20incorporated%20into%20conscious%20experience.]

From the above information we can conclude that a person shot through at z222/z223 could be showing a physical reflex action by z225/z226 but they wouldn't be consciously aware of being shot until around z331/z332.

The Limo’s dimensions are 21.25 feet long with a 13- foot wheelbase. Based on the Bronson photo there is approximately 15 feet between the Chisms and Jean Newman. Use everything you can to estimate not just the Z frames. The Z frames were the most helpful.

??

Roberdeau’s map, that you posted, has the Z224 “JFK already reacting by Z224-Z225 to bullets impact” wording. It is surprising you did not notice this wording as it was located right by the Z225 symbol. I would think you would have to have edited his statement out before you posted the map. Remember this is where he is reacting to having been shot, not where he was shot.

Once again, what does Roberdeau base this on?

Unfortunately, the conversation always revolves around all the shots not just the first. You need to go back and read the first pages of the thread. You believe you are controlling the conversation to just the first shot, but you are not, based on the early missed shot theory being an attempt to create longer time for the firing of three shots. Simply put, the proponents of this theory are trying to compensate for the time to work the bolt. Only Two shots having been fired is the answer and answers all questions and scenarios. Understanding this simple concept is actually a letdown given there are 60 years of imaginative conspiracy theories that are definitely more interesting than LHO fired two shots -- end of story. 

Unfortunately, the conversation always revolves around all the shots not just the first.

Not in a thread entitled THE FIRST SHOT!

Someone once had a thread about the number of shots. The fact there is absolutely no proof of three shots pretty much ended the thread after a few pages. It was all about witness statement interpretations because there is not any physical evidence of a third shot.

What a lovely story.

Believing in three shots is faith based and that is all. Shot three as a miss is actually strange given the amount of witnesses who state there wasn’t a shot after the headshot.

What about the witnesses who state there was a shot after the head-shot?

If you want to critique the method I'm using [that you inspired] to locate the moment of the first shot, let's hear it.
If you have a claim to make, why not back it up with some kind of evidence.