The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

Dan, the diagram map that was posted by Andrew Mason shows a red LOS line going thru the tree at Z195😳

If there are ONLY 3 shots and the 1st shot is a hit at 195 as theorized, and hits ONLY JFK then the 2nd shot that hits Connaly defacto must be at approx z223-225 as it’s quite apparent that Connalys right shoulder is being abruptly rotated counterclockwise.

I’m dubious of 2 separate shots fired unless someone has some evidence of an suppressed shot fired which of course means 2 shooters at least.

According to the evidence, the last shot struck JFK in the head at z313 and the shot pattern was 1........2...3 (the second shot coming after the midpoint between 1 and 3 and 3 following 2 in rapid succession).   So, according to the evidence, there was only one shot by z225 the second coming after z250. 

And the tree is an obstacle that the SE window shooter is very likely aware of so even if it can be proved that the leaves were less dense in 63 , it’s stiil questionable to choose to take a shot between z186-z210 when the tree branches are an obstruction rather than taking a shot just prior to it just afterwards when there is a clear LOS.

I am not sure why the FBI thought that JFK was not visible from the SN until z210.  That opinion was based on a reenactment using the wrong car and showing the tree as it appeared in late May 1964 after gaining new growth and foliage that were not there in November 1963.  Mind you, they were not able to figure out that Phil Willis' photo was taken at z202, almost a half second before z210, so I wouldn't put much faith in their expertise in such matters.

It is apparent from the Secret Service film done about 2 weeks after the assassination in early December 1963 that JFK was visible before he reached the Thornton Freeway sign and just after he passed the lamppost that was about 10 feet before the sign:



JFK was halfway between the lamppost and the Thornton sign at z195, as can be seen from this diagram which uses the sightline from Zapruder to JFK at z195:

The trajectory for the single shot hitting both JFK and Connolly does NOT have to be a perfect straight line.

There is possibility of slight deflections possible for a bullet going thru 2human bodies.

There would be a change in direction in passing through JFK only if the bullet is subjected to a significant asymmetrical lateral force.  There was nothing in passing through JFK that could have provided that except bone, and it struck no bone. So the bullet would have traveled pretty straight until exiting.  It did nick the left side of JFK's tie knot on exit which would have applied a slight and very brief asymmetrical force to the bullet but that would be to the left, not the right.  All the ballistics experts said that the bullet would not have changed direction after exiting JFK.

There was a change in direction of the bullet in passing through JBC, but you first have to get the bullet to go into JBC's right armpit from JFK's midline exit location.

The only problem really is the apparent anomaly of the insignificant amount of deformation of CE 399.

That's not an insignificant problem!

Willis has the 1st shot fired not earlier than Z205 which is the approximate verified time of his photo taken relative to the Z film location of the JFK limo.

The Willis photo was taken at z202.  This can easily be determined by aligning one of the Secret Service agents (Clint Hill) with the sightline from Zapruder to Willis.

If, as Willis said, the sound of the first shot caused him to press the shutter, you have to work back from z202.  At that point a bullet would have traveled 175 feet from the SN to JFK. That would have taken 175/2000 = 87 ms.  But the sound would have taken 175/1130 = 155 ms to reach Willis' ears.  The human neuromuscular system takes, on average, about 150 ms to begin a physical response to a stimulus let alone complete the response.  So that would put the shutter click about 155+150 ms after the bullet emerged from the rifle.  That would put the trigger pull 5-6 frames (each frame: 55 ms) before z202.  That is about the latest possible position of JFK when the shot was fired if Willis was right.  At that point, JFK is quite visible.

[Andrew Mason]

Jump seats

Another view: CE873:

It appears that the right jump seat was closer to the inside of the right door than the left jump seat was to the inside of the left door.

[Dan O'meara]

According to the evidence, the last shot struck JFK in the head at z313 and the shot pattern was 1........2...3 (the second shot coming after the midpoint between 1 and 3 and 3 following 2 in rapid succession).   So, according to the evidence, there was only one shot by z225 the second coming after z250. 
I am not sure why the FBI thought that JFK was not visible from the SN until z210.  That opinion was based on a reenactment using the wrong car and showing the tree as it appeared in late May 1964 after gaining new growth and foliage that were not there in November 1963.  Mind you, they were not able to figure out that Phil Willis' photo was taken at z202, almost a half second before z210, so I wouldn't put much faith in their expertise in such matters.

It is apparent from the Secret Service film done about 2 weeks after the assassination in early December 1963 that JFK was visible before he reached the Thornton Freeway sign and just after he passed the lamppost that was about 10 feet before the sign:



JFK was halfway between the lamppost and the Thornton sign at z195, as can be seen from this diagram which uses the sightline from Zapruder to JFK at z195:


There would be a change in direction in passing through JFK only if the bullet is subjected to a significant asymmetrical lateral force.  There was nothing in passing through JFK that could have provided that except bone, and it struck no bone. So the bullet would have traveled pretty straight until exiting.  It did nick the left side of JFK's tie knot on exit which would have applied a slight and very brief asymmetrical force to the bullet but that would be to the left, not the right.  All the ballistics experts said that the bullet would not have changed direction after exiting JFK.

There was a change in direction of the bullet in passing through JBC, but you first have to get the bullet to go into JBC's right armpit from JFK's midline exit location.
That's not an insignificant problem!
The Willis photo was taken at z202.  This can easily be determined by aligning one of the Secret Service agents (Clint Hill) with the sightline from Zapruder to Willis.

If, as Willis said, the sound of the first shot caused him to press the shutter, you have to work back from z202.  At that point a bullet would have traveled 175 feet from the SN to JFK. That would have taken 175/2000 = 87 ms.  But the sound would have taken 175/1130 = 155 ms to reach Willis' ears.  The human neuromuscular system takes, on average, about 150 ms to begin a physical response to a stimulus let alone complete the response.  So that would put the shutter click about 155+150 ms after the bullet emerged from the rifle.  That would put the trigger pull 5-6 frames (each frame: 55 ms) before z202.  That is about the latest possible position of JFK when the shot was fired if Willis was right.  At that point, JFK is quite visible.

"According to the evidence, the last shot struck JFK in the head at z313"

Certain evidence supports this view, other evidence does not.
There is overwhelming ear-witness testimony that 3 clearly audible shots were fired.
There is very strong ear-witness testimony that the pattern of these shots was - shot, pause, two shots close together.
There are two possible scenarios - 3 shots that hit or two hit and one miss.
Both scenarios face difficulties and neither can be proven conclusively.

[Andrew Mason]

There are two possible scenarios - 3 shots that hit or two hit and one miss.
Both scenarios face difficulties and neither can be proven conclusively.

The 3 shot-3 hit scenario is the only scenario that anyone said happened. No one described the SBT scenario as having occurred and several said it did not occur. So one could exclude the SBT on the basis of the evidence.  Then that leaves just one possible scenario: the one observed by the Connallys, Dave Powers, Gayle Newman. 3 shots, 3 hits.

There is abundant evidence that all 3 shots were fired from the SN   

[Dan O'meara]

The 3 shot-3 hit scenario is the only scenario that anyone said happened. No one described the SBT scenario as having occurred and several said it did not occur. So one could exclude the SBT on the basis of the evidence.  Then that leaves just one possible scenario: the one observed by the Connallys, Dave Powers, Gayle Newman. 3 shots, 3 hits.

There is abundant evidence that all 3 shots were fired from the SN

A reliance on contradictory eye-witness testimony is a recipe for failure (I'm really surprised you're still bringing up the Connallys as they do nothing to support your own theory). Witnesses like Templin and Brehm describe 3 shots with the last one missing, so relying on witness testimony alone is a non-starter.
One problem with the 3 hit scenario is that it doesn't realistically account for Tague's injury and the reported bullet strike at the manhole cover.
This thread is a record of the innumerable and insurmountable problems your own attempts at demonstrating a 3 hit scenario have faced. That said, I have found it virtually impossible to find any convincing evidence demonstrating a 2nd or 3rd shot miss.
What I have found is overwhelming evidence supporting a first shot hit at z223

[Jerry Freeman]

The 3 shot-3 hit scenario is the only scenario ...

That is what the FBI said in Dec 1963.
 

There is abundant evidence that all 3 shots were fired from the SN.

That is what the FBI said in Dec 1963.
Yet here we are.

[Jerry Organ]

According to the evidence, the last shot struck JFK in the head at z313 and the shot pattern was 1........2...3 (the second shot coming after the midpoint between 1 and 3 and 3 following 2 in rapid succession).   So, according to the evidence, there was only one shot by z225 the second coming after z250.   

Isn't "shot-spanning" about the most unreliable metric you could deceitfully contend is factual? Yes, there is a database of a majority of witnesses that say the shot-spanning pattern was as you say, but how reliable are ear-witnesses to an unexpected event? And how subjective are their reconstructions? You had this explained to you in law school, right?



Reclaiming History, p.482

I am not sure why the FBI thought that JFK was not visible from the SN until z210.  That opinion was based on a reenactment using the wrong car and showing the tree as it appeared in late May 1964 after gaining new growth and foliage that were not there in November 1963. 

Reclaiming History, p.472

The May 1964 re-enactment positioned each frame so it precisely matched where the President was in the Zapruder film. The greater problems were with the "scope" view; they failed to position the "Kennedy" participant as close to the exterior of the car as the President was in the Zapruder film and the "Connally" participant was not seated lower than "Kennedy" as the Governor was seated relative to Kennedy was in the Zapruder film. Correcting for that goes a long way to improving the feasibility of the Single Bullet Theory.

Motorcade: Connally seated lower

Motorcade: Connally seated inboard; JFK against car side interior

May 1964 FBI Re-enactment

"Queen Mary" Cadillac used in May 1964      re-enactment had a canopy that limited how      near one could get to the exterior of the car;      the Kennedy limousine had no such      restriction

The Warren Report described the May 1964 re-enactment, and the positioning of the President and Governor:

• "Any differences were taken into account". (p.97, USGPO)
• "The agents ascertained that the foliage of an oak tree that came between the gunman and his target along the motorcade route on Elm Street was approximately the same as on the day of the assassination." (p.97, USGPO)
• "it is apparent that President Kennedy was somewhat to the Governor's right. The President sat on the extreme right, as noted in the films and by eyewitnesses" (p.195, USGPO)

Of course, Mason doesn't want you to know any of that, so rather than make lemonade, he focuses on the "foliage growth" and "wrong car".

Mind you, they were not able to figure out that Phil Willis' photo was taken at z202, almost a half second before z210, so I wouldn't put much faith in their expertise in such matters.

The Report didn't blanket-approve Phil Willis' "simultaneous" claim, as you have swallowed so wholeheartedly. The Report said Willis "asserts [his photo] was simultaneous with the first shot ... If Willis accurately recalled."

It is apparent from the Secret Service film done about 2 weeks after the assassination in early December 1963 that JFK was visible before he reached the Thornton Freeway sign and just after he passed the lamppost that was about 10 feet before the sign:


 
JFK was halfway between the lamppost and the Thornton sign at z195, as can be seen from this diagram which uses the sightline from Zapruder to JFK at z195:

The President was obscured by tree foliage at Z195.      (The real position for Z195 must drive Mason nuts,      so he's jumping through loops!)

Mason's amateurish attempt to equate a Z210ish position with his Z195 fantasy shot. He even used a faulty map to alter the shot trajectory from the Depository and to "morph" the car further along than it really was at Z195.

There would be a change in direction in passing through JFK only if the bullet is subjected to a significant asymmetrical lateral force.  There was nothing in passing through JFK that could have provided that except bone, and it struck no bone. So the bullet would have traveled pretty straight until exiting.  It did nick the left side of JFK's tie knot on exit which would have applied a slight and very brief asymmetrical force to the bullet but that would be to the left, not the right.  All the ballistics experts said that the bullet would not have changed direction after exiting JFK.

There was a change in direction of the bullet in passing through JBC, but you first have to get the bullet to go into JBC's right armpit from JFK's midline exit location.
That's not an insignificant problem! 

Pretty much all of Connally's right shoulder is to the left of Kennedy's midline. Did Connally slide four inches to his right after Z202?

The Willis photo was taken at z202.  This can easily be determined by aligning one of the Secret Service agents (Clint Hill) with the sightline from Zapruder to Willis.

If, as Willis said, the sound of the first shot caused him to press the shutter, you have to work back from z202.  At that point a bullet would have traveled 175 feet from the SN to JFK. That would have taken 175/2000 = 87 ms.  But the sound would have taken 175/1130 = 155 ms to reach Willis' ears.  The human neuromuscular system takes, on average, about 150 ms to begin a physical response to a stimulus let alone complete the response.  So that would put the shutter click about 155+150 ms after the bullet emerged from the rifle.  That would put the trigger pull 5-6 frames (each frame: 55 ms) before z202.  That is about the latest possible position of JFK when the shot was fired if Willis was right.  At that point, JFK is quite visible.

If so, Oswald wasn't aiming at Kennedy because the President is hidden by foliage. Believing Willis on this "simultaneous" claim is like believing Arnold Rowland's combed hair/ light scar, rifle make at nearly 300 feet. Like Rowland, Willis couldn't resist exaggerating the significance of his once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Could be a Texas thing.

[Andrew Mason]

Isn't "shot-spanning" about the most unreliable metric you could deceitfully contend is factual? Yes, there is a database of a majority of witnesses that say the shot-spanning pattern was as you say, but how reliable are ear-witnesses to an unexpected event? And how subjective are their reconstructions? You had this explained to you in law school, right?

The distribution of witnesses as to the shot pattern looks like this:

The May 1964 re-enactment positioned each frame so it precisely matched where the President was in the Zapruder film. The greater problems were with the "scope" view; they failed to position the "Kennedy" participant as close to the exterior of the car as the President was in the Zapruder film and the "Connally" participant was not seated lower than "Kennedy" as the Governor was seated relative to Kennedy was in the Zapruder film. Correcting for that goes a long way to improving the feasibility of the Single Bullet Theory.

I am sure the FBI surveyors tried hard.  Unfortunately they did not explain why they thought z210 was the earliest the first shot could have occurred.  It shows the back of the trunk to be clear for 6 feet behind JFK. They were not even aware that this opinion conflicted with the evidence of Phil Willis.  The WC thought that the Willis photo was taken at about z210. It wasn't. It was taken at z202.  Also, the FBI photos do not show where they thought z210 was in relation to the Thornton sign or the lamp post.  So we can either go with that opinion or see for ourselves where JFK was first clear of the tree using the Secret Service film.  He is clear before he passes the Thornton sign.  He passes the Thornton sign at z200.

The Warren Report described the May 1964 re-enactment, and the positioning of the President and Governor:

• "Any differences were taken into account". (p.97, USGPO)
• "The agents ascertained that the foliage of an oak tree that came between the gunman and his target along the motorcade route on Elm Street was approximately the same as on the day of the assassination." (p.97, USGPO)
• "it is apparent that President Kennedy was somewhat to the Governor's right. The President sat on the extreme right, as noted in the films and by eyewitnesses" (p.195, USGPO)

Of course, Mason doesn't want you to know any of that, so rather than make lemonade, he focuses on the "foliage growth" and "wrong car".

They say all the differences were accounted for.  So either there was something else they did wrong or they were not correctly accounted for.  Simply put: the May 1964 reenactment does not accord with the Secret Service film.

The Report didn't blanket-approve Phil Willis' "simultaneous" claim, as you have swallowed so wholeheartedly. The Report said Willis "asserts [his photo] was simultaneous with the first shot ... If Willis accurately recalled."

The President was obscured by tree foliage at Z195.      (The real position for Z195 must drive Mason nuts,      so he's jumping through loops!)

Mason's amateurish attempt to equate a Z210ish position with his Z195 fantasy shot. He even used a faulty map to alter the shot trajectory from the Depository and to "morph" the car further along than it really was at Z195.

Jerry, you do realize that the car used in the Secret Service film was about 6 feet shorter than the President's car.  So if you line up the front of the President's car to the front of the car in the SS film, JFK will be several feet farther back.  That is what you have done.  I am only concerned with the position of JFK.  The corresponding position of the front of the car will be several feet farther along past the Thornton sign in order to have the same position of JFK as seen here: