The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

I prefer basing conclusions on the evidence.

No you don't.
You base it on sketchy, disparate witness testimony and perverse interpretations of the video evidence.
The latest evidence I've presented is based on 10 corroborating witness statements from two vehicles that place them on Elm St at the moment of the first shot and compared that with the comprehensive mapping program created by Mark Tyler to show the vehicle positions at various points.

Do you have any issue with the method I've used?

Yes.  The assumption is that he just happened to move his hands into that position immediately before being shot.  Big assumption.

Your usual misrepresentation.

I said that the evidence you provided (the motorcade witnesses) is consistent with a shot about a second earlier.  Other witnesses such as Phil Willis (just before z202), Mary Woodward (just after z192), Linda Willis (z195-z205), Rosemary Willis (the head turn to the TSBD at z204), Jack Ready (rearward turn begins z200), together with the fact that JFK was never completely obscured by the tree and was completely clear of the tree well before z200 indicate that that the shot occurred around z195 give or take a few frames.

The witness statements are consistent with z195 you say?
Well, let's take a look:



As you can clearly see, the VP follow-up car is still half way through the turn onto Elm St. and is thus refuted by the witness statements of ALL the occupants of that vehicle.
Your little theory is refuted (yet again)

I note that in your post #152 on this thread, you quoted from Pat Speer's analysis:
"...we’ve looked at the words of 293 witnesses to see if they add up to something. Of this 293, 88 failed to tell us much that would indicate when and how the shots were fired. Of the remaining 205, 102 made statements suggesting there were three shots fired, with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224 and the last 2 shots being heard in rapid succession after a short pause. Another 57 made statements suggesting that the first shot was heard between Z-190 and Z-224, but made no statements indicating the last two shots were bunched together. Another 13 heard the last two shots fired closely together, and yet another could only swear to hearing two shots, but thought there may have been a third, which was wholly consistent with the last two being fired closely together. This means that 173 of the 205 witnesses described the shots in a relatively consistent manner. Of the remaining 32, 18 heard four or more shots, and another 3 made statements indicating there was a shot after the head shot."

At that point, based on Pat Speer's analysis, you had considered that the evidence was consistent with a first shot as early as z195.  What has changed?

The post you are referring to [#151, not #152] makes no reference to a shot as early as z195. Is this one of your more outlandish tactics to steer the discussion away from the Speer/Tyler evidence being discussed, as it refutes your own theory?
I have consistently advocated a first shot at z223 on this thread, i have presented copious arguments to support this view and am glad that this latest evidence confirms my position at the expense of everyone else's theory- including your own.

The Speer/Tyler evidence is solid.

[Andrew Mason]

No you don't.
You base it on sketchy, disparate witness testimony and perverse interpretations of the video evidence.


The latest evidence I've presented is based on 10 corroborating witness statements from two vehicles that place them on Elm St at the moment of the first shot and compared that with the comprehensive mapping program created by Mark Tyler to show the vehicle positions at various points.

Do you have any issue with the method I've used?

Yes. You need to look at all the witnesses. The same witnesses that Speer analysed and concluded supported a shot in the z190 to z224 range and the additional witnesses that I referred to (such as Phil Willis, Linda Willis and Rosemary Willis' head turn, all of which put the first shot before z202; such as Ready; such as the Secret Service film showing that JFK was quite visible when he passed the lamppost just a few feet east of where Mary Woodward was standing.

The witness statements are consistent with z195 you say?
Well, let's take a look:



As you can clearly see, the VP follow-up car is still half way through the turn onto Elm St. and is thus refuted by the witness statements of ALL the occupants of that vehicle.
Your little theory is refuted (yet again)

You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car. 

Occupants of the VP follow-up car (5th in motorcade, your #8 car) described the moment of the first shot:

• Joe Rich. (driver), WC 18 H 800: "I was staying right on his bumper" (of the VP car). "we turned off Houston Street onto Elm Street"
• Clifton Carter, WC 7 H 474: "our car had just made the lefthand turn off Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building"
• SA Kivett, WC 8 H 778: "The motorcade was heading slightly downhill toward an underpass. As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 of the way to the underpass.."
• SA Johns, WC 18 H 764: "at this time were were on a slight downhill curve to the right"
• SA Taylor, (18 H 782): "our automobile had just turned a corner"

The position you have shown for the VP Security car certainly fits those descriptions at the position you have shown at z195. Most of the comments provide a "before bracket" (after their car had turned off Houston); after the motorcade was heading toward the underpass about 1/3 of the way there.  But the comment by Clifton Carter gives a precise location: they had made the turn off Houston and the car was "along side" the TSBD.  That certainly fits the position you have shown for the VP Security car at z195.

The Occupants of Mayor Cabell’s car (6th in motorcade, your #11 car for some reason) further support this position.  They recalled hearing the first shot as follows:

• Milton Wright (driver), WC18 H 802: "had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection".
• Earle Cabell, WC 7 H 479, said that he was turned around talking to Rep. Roberts and Mrs. Cabell with the TSBD situated to his back.
• Mrs. Cabell, WC 7 H 486, "we were making the turn" ... "I was directly facing [the TSBD]"

The car that you have shown is directly facing the TSBD at z195 just as Mrs. Cabell described.  She said she just looked up and saw the rifle sticking out of the 6th floor window directly in front of her.  Here is a view of that moment from the SN as shown in the 1963 Secret Service film:

The post you are referring to [#151, not #152] makes no reference to a shot as early as z195. Is this one of your more outlandish tactics to steer the discussion away from the Speer/Tyler evidence being discussed, as it refutes your own theory?

So how do you interpret: "with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224"?  Is z190 not earlier than z195? 

[BTW, I was referring to your post which is shown as #152 when I view it.  In any event, it is your post on: November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM]

[Dan O'meara]

Yes. You need to look at all the witnesses. The same witnesses that Speer analysed and concluded supported a shot in the z190 to z224 range and the additional witnesses that I referred to (such as Phil Willis, Linda Willis and Rosemary Willis' head turn, all of which put the first shot before z202; such as Ready; such as the Secret Service film showing that JFK was quite visible when he passed the lamppost just a few feet east of where Mary Woodward was standing.
You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car. 

Occupants of the VP follow-up car (5th in motorcade, your #8 car) described the moment of the first shot:

• Joe Rich. (driver), WC 18 H 800: "I was staying right on his bumper" (of the VP car). "we turned off Houston Street onto Elm Street"
• Clifton Carter, WC 7 H 474: "our car had just made the lefthand turn off Houston onto Elm Street and was right along side of the Texas School Book Depository Building"
• SA Kivett, WC 8 H 778: "The motorcade was heading slightly downhill toward an underpass. As the motorcade was approximately 1/3 of the way to the underpass.."
• SA Johns, WC 18 H 764: "at this time were were on a slight downhill curve to the right"
• SA Taylor, (18 H 782): "our automobile had just turned a corner"

The position you have shown for the VP Security car certainly fits those descriptions at the position you have shown at z195. Most of the comments provide a "before bracket" (after their car had turned off Houston); after the motorcade was heading toward the underpass about 1/3 of the way there.  But the comment by Clifton Carter gives a precise location: they had made the turn off Houston and the car was "along side" the TSBD.  That certainly fits the position you have shown for the VP Security car at z195.

The Occupants of Mayor Cabell’s car (6th in motorcade, your #11 car for some reason) further support this position.  They recalled hearing the first shot as follows:

• Milton Wright (driver), WC18 H 802: "had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection".
• Earle Cabell, WC 7 H 479, said that he was turned around talking to Rep. Roberts and Mrs. Cabell with the TSBD situated to his back.
• Mrs. Cabell, WC 7 H 486, "we were making the turn" ... "I was directly facing [the TSBD]"

The car that you have shown is directly facing the TSBD at z195 just as Mrs. Cabell described.  She said she just looked up and saw the rifle sticking out of the 6th floor window directly in front of her.  Here is a view of that moment from the SN as shown in the 1963 Secret Service film:


So how do you interpret: "with the first shot being heard between Z-190 and Z-224"?  Is z190 not earlier than z195? 

[BTW, I was referring to your post which is shown as #152 when I view it.  In any event, it is your post on: November 02, 2020, 12:39:46 PM]

"You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car."

Am I really?

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] - “We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street"   Turn completed
Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  -  "...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm"   Turn completed
Warren Taylor [back centre] - “Our automobile had just turned a corner"   Turn completed
Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] -  "We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill"   Turn completed

4 of the 5 occupants specifically state the turn onto Elm from Houston was completed. This is not the case for z195. That is clear for all to see. However, it is the case for z223.
The other occupant, Kivett, makes it clear they were going down the incline on Elm St at the time of the first shot.

Poor Andrew, trying desperately to cling on but I'm afraid the evidence is against you.
Even Hickey's "fringe ruffle" can't save the day.

The 10 corroborating witness statements, combined with the Mark Tyler mapping program, are solid evidence.
You have nothing but your cherry-picked twisted interpretations and plain old denial.

It's time to look at the evidence with open eyes.

[Jerry Organ]

    "My name is Milton T. Wright, Texas Highway Patrolman, Badge No. 790.
     On November 22 I was assigned to drive a 63 Mercury Comet convertible
     that contained the Mayor and his wife and a U. S. Congressman. We turned
     onto Houston Street, the parade was going real well and speed was
     beginning to pick up and the crowd was beginning to thin right at this point.
     The car I was driving had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30
     feet from the intersection when I heard the first shot. When the second shot
     was fired I noticed a number of people running away from the Motorcade
     and I saw several Dallas motorcycle policemen had their guns drawn.
     Then the motorcade speeded up and we went toward the hospital at a high
     rate of speed. I could see the President's car but I could not see anyone in
     the back seat. The only people I could see were the Agents. At the hospital
     we unloaded the Governor first and then the President. Then we were
     instructed to keep the news media away from the car."

Since he only references two shots, Milton Wright may be describing the Z220s shot as the "first shot" (that would make it the 2nd shot in most LN scenarios). Mrs. Cabell, who recalled three shots, doesn't say the first shot occurred when the car as far onto Elm as Wright says.

[Andrew Mason]

"You are misreading the statements of the occupants of the VP security car."

Am I really?

Joe Henry Rich [Driver] - “We turned off of Houston Street onto Elm Street"   Turn completed
Cliff Carter [passenger seat]  -  "...our car had just made the left hand turn onto Elm"   Turn completed
Warren Taylor [back centre] - “Our automobile had just turned a corner"   Turn completed
Thomas (Lem) Johns [back right] -  "We turned onto Elm Street...We were going downhill"   Turn completed

4 of the 5 occupants specifically state the turn onto Elm from Houston was completed. This is not the case for z195. That is clear for all to see. However, it is the case for z223.
The other occupant, Kivett, makes it clear they were going down the incline on Elm St at the time of the first shot.

Again, you are misreading what they said.  Not a single occupant of the VP security car used the word "completed".  That is your word.
All they said was that they made the turn off Houston (onto Elm).   And Clifton Carter said the car was along side the TSBD.  Now we know that the turn is about 120 degrees so turning off Houston onto Elm does not mean that they had completed the 120 degree turn. According to Carter, they had only turned 90 degrees.  And Mrs. Cabell, whom you ignore, corroborates this.  Who is "cherry picking" here?

There is further confirmation in the statement of Hurchel Jacks who was driving the VP car:

"My car had just straightened up from making the left turn". 

So it is not apparent that the VP security car, more than a car-length behind had "just straightened up from making the left turn" at the same time. 

Kivett talks about the "motorcade" position, which does not not tell you where the VP Security car was.

As I said, all the VP security car occupants give important evidence that the car was not still on Houston, as the early first-shot-miss proponents suggest.   Carter, Cabell and Jacks give more details of the precise location and position and it all fits with positions of the cars much closer to z195 than z223.

[Dan O'meara]

Again, you are misreading what they said.  Not a single occupant of the VP security car used the word "completed".  That is your word.

You're really going to make me explain the English language to you?

I will turn/I will make a turn  -  This is something that will happen in the future.
I am turning  -  This is something happening in the present moment
I have turned/I have made a turn -  This is something that has already happened. Another way to phrase this is to say THE TURN HAS BEEN COMPLETED

The four witnesses use the past tense of the verb to indicate the turn had already happened when the first shot rang out.
This is true at z223 but IT IS NOT TRUE FOR Z195
You have always ignored evidence that went against your beliefs but this evidence is too solid.
You must accept it.

All they said was that they made the turn off Houston (onto Elm).   And Clifton Carter said the car was along side the TSBD.  Now we know that the turn is about 120 degrees so turning off Houston onto Elm does not mean that they had completed the 120 degree turn. According to Carter, they had only turned 90 degrees.  And Mrs. Cabell, whom you ignore, corroborates this.  Who is "cherry picking" here?

"According to Carter, they had only turned 90 degrees."

From past experience I know that when you have completely lost an argument you begin to make things up and when you're called out on it you pretend it was just an innocent mistake. I believe this may be happening here. You have put words into Carter's mouth and I'd like you to provide the quote they come from.
You then insist that Mrs Cabell corroborates this statement - please demonstrate how this is the case.

There is further confirmation in the statement of Hurchel Jacks who was driving the VP car:

"My car had just straightened up from making the left turn". 

So it is not apparent that the VP security car, more than a car-length behind had "just straightened up from making the left turn" at the same time. 

What you're saying here doesn't make any sense.
Are you saying the VP security car couldn't have completed the turn that almost all the occupants said it did because the car in front of it had "straightened out"?

Kivett talks about the "motorcade" position, which does not not tell you where the VP Security car was.

Kivett talks about "travelling downhill", something confirmed by other occupants of the vehicle.

As I said, all the VP security car occupants give important evidence that the car was not still on Houston, as the early first-shot-miss proponents suggest.   Carter, Cabell and Jacks give more details of the precise location and position and it all fits with positions of the cars much closer to z195 than z223.

Carter gives more details of the precise location of the vehicle?
I can't wait to hear about it.

[Jack Nessan]

    "My name is Milton T. Wright, Texas Highway Patrolman, Badge No. 790.
     On November 22 I was assigned to drive a 63 Mercury Comet convertible
     that contained the Mayor and his wife and a U. S. Congressman. We turned
     onto Houston Street, the parade was going real well and speed was
     beginning to pick up and the crowd was beginning to thin right at this point.
     The car I was driving had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30
     feet from the intersection when I heard the first shot. When the second shot
     was fired I noticed a number of people running away from the Motorcade
     and I saw several Dallas motorcycle policemen had their guns drawn.
     Then the motorcade speeded up and we went toward the hospital at a high
     rate of speed. I could see the President's car but I could not see anyone in
     the back seat. The only people I could see were the Agents. At the hospital
     we unloaded the Governor first and then the President. Then we were
     instructed to keep the news media away from the car."

Since he only references two shots, Milton Wright may be describing the Z220s shot as the "first shot" (that would make it the 2nd shot in most LN scenarios). Mrs. Cabell, who recalled three shots, doesn't say the first shot occurred when the car as far onto Elm as Wright says.

Or there was only two shots. Information leading to the conclusion there was only two shots: markings on the shells, one bullet and fragments of  second bullet, eyewitness testimony, time to fire the carcano, jiggle analysis, etc.

Three shot conclusions: earwitness statements about a 2nd and third shot so close together they sound like one -- nothing else.

[Andrew Mason]

You're really going to make me explain the English language to you?

I will turn/I will make a turn  -  This is something that will happen in the future.
I am turning  -  This is something happening in the present moment
I have turned/I have made a turn -  This is something that has already happened. Another way to phrase this is to say THE TURN HAS BEEN COMPLETED

No! The word "completed" is yours.   With the exception of Carter, the occupants do not provide any further details of how far they had turned.  Normally, on a 90 degree turn, if you make a turn off one street onto another you are very close to completing the turn.  But not this turn onto Elm which was a 120 degree turn. Carter described the security car being along side the TSBD. I suggest that means the car was turned 90 degrees, not 120, so that it was parallel to the TSBD front.  To the extent that "along side" might be somewhat ambiguous, the ambiguity can be resolved by Mrs  Cabell who gave a very specific position of her car: she was directly facing the TSBD at the moment of the first shot and just had to look up to see the rifle in the SN directly in front of her.   I say that the Cabell car had to have been in this position for her to be directly facing the SN when she looked up:



According to your diagram, that corresponds to frame z195:

You then insist that Mrs Cabell corroborates this statement - please demonstrate how this is the case.

You obviously have not taken in my previous posts.  READ HER EVIDENCE and tell us where you think he car was and the zframe that it corresponds to.

To be clear:  I am not saying that the witnesses in the VP car and VP security car rule out any possibility of a shot at z223. I thought I made that clear in my first recent post. What I am saying is that this evidence is also consistent with a first shot at z195 ie. it does not conflict with a shot at z195.  The difference, about 1.5 seconds, is too small a time difference to distinguish based on the statements of vehicle occupants alone.  One has to look at other evidence, such as Phil Willis, the Secret Service Film, Mary Woodward, Jane Berry, etc.

The importance of the motorcade evidence is to establish a "before bracket" for the first shot.  The "before bracket" establishes a time that the first shot was not before.  The motorcade evidence which establishes that the VP car had just finished the full turn onto Elm (and had straightened out) positively excludes a first shot before z181, which is the last frame in which the VP car is seen and it still has not finished the turn.  This fits with Betzner who said he took his z186 photo before the first shot. This fits with Hughes who said he stopped filming (which stops at z185) before the first shot. It fits with Woodward and Berry and other witnesses along Elm. 

The "after bracket" is more difficult to establish.  The only definitive statement is that of Phil Willis who said that his z202 photo was taken at the moment of the first shot - that the sound of the shot caused him to press the shutter.  If that was an accurate recollection, that would put the first shot sound arriving at his ears about 150 ms. before he pressed the shutter in order to allow for a physical reaction to the sound. That fits a first shot striking JFK no later than z198, with the sound arriving 75 ms. later and the shutter pressing 150 ms after that. That is consistent with Linda Willis who said that the President was between her and the Stemmons sign at the time of the first shot.  That puts it between z195 and z205.  It is also consistent with Rosemary Willis who turns her head sharply toward the TSBD at z204. She said she saw pigeons fly from the TSBD. Jack Ready, who said he immediately turned to the rear in response to the first shot, removed his hand from the front handhold at z200 and proceeds to turn to the right from z200-207 before disappearing from the zfilm.  That indicates the first shot was earlier than z198.

I will admit that the amount of evidence that can be used to establish an after-bracket for the first shot is not as much as the before-bracket.  But it is consistent with a shot before z200 and inconsistent with a shot any later.