The First Shot

[Dan O'meara]

That is not what the HSCA based its conclusion on.  At 6 HSCA 17 the Photographic panel concluded:

• "(70) At approximately Zapruder frame 200, Kennedy's movements
  suddenly freeze ; his right hand abruptly stops in the midst of a waving
  motion and his head moves rapidly from right to his left in the
  direction of his wife. Based on these movements, it appears that by the
  time the President goes behind the sign at frame 207 he is evidencing
  some kind of reaction to a severe external stimulus. By the time he
  emerges from behind the sign at Zapruder frame 225, the President
  makes a clutching motion with his hands toward his neck, indicating
  clearly that he has been shot."

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

Because he said so.   He said he looked rearward and then looked forward and was looking at JFK at the time he heard the second and third shots.
Can you not turn your head in much less than a second? I can. Greer turned his head from looking rearward to looking forward between z289 and z294. That is a bit more than a quarter of a second.

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.
He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.
Another pillar crumbles.

[Andrew Mason]

This has been completely debunked elsewhere in this thread.
Yet another pillar supporting your model topples.

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.  You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot. Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.  You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.  If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223. 

The point about Hickey (other than being the sole witness to the 'pre-headshot hair ruffle) is that he describes the second and third shot as follows -  "there seemed to be practically no time element between them".
Think about that - practically no time element.

He is describing JFK's hair flying up due to his head exploding and the subsequent movement of his body as two separate incidents that have "no time element between them".

I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

Hickey is not describing the 'hair ruffle' seen in Zapruder, Jerry has ably demonstrated he is not in a position to see it but, also, there is at least two seconds between the z-film 'hair ruffle' and the headshot. In no way can this be described as having 'practically no time element between them'.
You have put too much stock in this single, unsupported witness who is clearly describing something other than you would have us believe.

So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?

[Dan O'meara]

I was just pointing out that others have opined that JFK appeared to be struck before z223.

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there. The arguments I have put forward to support my own model - a first shot at z223 - have stood up to any challenge presented here whilst other models have been shown to be completely at odds with what we see in the Z-film if we accept basic evidence, such as the majority of ear-witnesses hearing three audible shots.

You agree that JFK was struck on the first shot.

Yes I do

Phil Willis said his z202 photo was taken just after the first shot.  So I am not alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken
No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

You agree with the 1..........2......3 shot pattern.

Yes, I do.

If the head shot was the last shot, as many witnesses said and which makes sense, then the first shot had to be earlier than z223.

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

 
I can't tell what he meant by "practically".  Obviously, he did not mean there was no discernible period of time between them. Perhaps he meant that there was no period of silence between them.  Mary Woodward observed that the sound of the second shot had not died out before the third was heard:

• "The second two shots were immediate --- it was almost as if one were an echo of the other -- they came so quickly. The sound of one did not cease until the second shot.” … “and then the third shot came very, very quickly, on top of the second one”.

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

[/list]So how do you account for the fact that 1) he reported seeing JFK's hair fly up at the moment he heard the second shot as if it just missed his head on the right side and 2) JFK's hair actually flies up from z273 to z276 just as he said he observed?  How is that even possible unless he actually saw what he said he saw?  Jerry was not there.  Hickey was. He was standing up in the QM. How can you be so sure he could not see JFK?  Are you suggesting he did not see the head shot?

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

It's time to reconsider your model.
You seem like a reasonable person and must surely see the insurmountable problems that have arisen for your model.

[Andrew Mason]

Of course there are different models attempting to explain when the first shot occurred, that is what this thread is about. Some have it taking place before Zapruder even starts filming the Presidential limo itself. We have seen the differences between yourself, myself, Jerry and Charles, all presenting very different models using the same evidence.
Unlike others, I have put much emphasis on the Z-film with all other evidence being secondary and used to support what we see there.

The zfilm alone does not tell us where JFK or JBC is hit and does not tell us when the first two shots occurred.  So the events that it shows have to be interpreted with the rest of the evidence. For example, when JFK and Jackie turn sharp right at about z160-175 from looking left and wave to bystanders, it appeared to Mary Woodward that this was done in response to them shouting and waving to get the President's attention and that the first shot was after this.  Also, no one said that JFK smiled and waved after the first shot.  Yet many ignore that evidence and conclude that this was a turn in response to hearing a gunshot.  All those who support second shot SBT do that.  They are just fooling themselves.

You rely on single witness statements too much. Willis is contradicted by other witness statements so no absolute authority can be given to it. He could easily be mistaken and, as I've demonstrated in this thread, the Z-film appears to show he is indeed mistaken.

I am not relying only on Phil Willis.  His evidence is supported by several others including:

• His daughter, Linda, said that the first shot occurred when the President’s limousine was in line with her and the Stemmons sign, which puts it well before z223 and in that z195-205 area.
• His other daughter, Rosemary, turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD between z204 and z207.
• Hugh Betzner who said that he had started to wind his camera after taking his z186 photo when the first shot occurred.
• T.E. Moore (24 H 534) who gave a statement saying "By the time President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  The President was opposite the Thornton sign at z200 - well before z223.
• Occupants of the VP car who said that they had just turned the corner and were going down Elm St. when the first shot occurred.  It is almost finished the turn when last seen in the zfilm at z180.
• Occupants of the VP follow-up car who said that they were still turning - were along side the TSBD when the first shot occurred.  It is in the middle of its turn at z191 when last seen and is just a few frames away from the position they described.

No-one is saying you're alone in thinking the first shot was earlier than z223. What we have seen, though, is the disintegration of your own model - nothing in the Z-film supports it in any substantial way, having the assassin firing through dense foliage, the impossible ballistics etc.

As I have pointed out, JFK is clear of the foliage when he was opposite the Thornton Freeway sign as seen in the Secret Service film:
And I have shown that he was opposite the Thornton sign at z200:

The failures of your model argue against the headshot being the final shot (a shot after the headshot is something many witnesses testify to). The integrity of the shot pattern can be kept with a shot after the headshot without the pitfalls your own model has run into.

There are are many more witnesses who said that the head shot was the last shot: all the Secret Service agents, the Connallys, Dave Powers and Altgens. A third shot after the head shot means the shooter continued firing after such an obvious hit to the head. 

When he is saying there is practically no time element between the two shots he is saying the shots were almost simultaneous. Some thing others seem to testify to. In your model there is a gap of over two seconds between the 'hair ruffle and the headshot'. In no way can a gap of over two seconds be described as 'practically no time element' or 'almost simultaneous'.

It is if he meant that they overlapped: as Mary Woodward said, the sound of the second had not died out before the third shot was heard.

Hickey is describing the headshot. His hair does not 'fly up' from z272 to z276. It ruffles in the wind. Exactly the same thing happens just before the headshot (@ z305). It is something that surely happened dozens of times during the parade.
Jerry does not need to be there, that is the point of the modelling he does. He has demonstrated that Hickey was not in a position to see the 'hair ruffle' but was in the position to see the hair blown off as JKF's head explodes.

There is no hair flying up at z305.  You are seeing movement of the camera. The hair is identical in z304 and z306. The camera moves during the exposure of z305 as you can see in the double line on the car (look at the roof support bar).

[Jerry Organ]

The zfilm alone does not tell us where JFK or JBC is hit and does not tell us when the first two shots occurred.  So the events that it shows have to be interpreted with the rest of the evidence. For example, when JFK and Jackie turn sharp right at about z160-175 from looking left and wave to bystanders, it appeared to Mary Woodward that this was done in response to them shouting and waving to get the President's attention and that the first shot was after this.

    "She stated she was watching President and Mrs. KENNEDY closely, and
     all of her group cheered loudly as they went by. Just as the President and
     Mrs. KENNEDY went by, they turned and waved at them. Just a second
     or two later, she heard a loud noise. At this point, it appeared to her that
     President and Mrs. KENNEDY probably were about one hundred feet
     from her."

          -- FBI Interview, Dec-07-63

I think the use of "went by" was a broad generalization of the motorcade having arrived and part of it (some vehicles and motorcycle) having already gone down Elm. She says they were some distance "from her" when she heard the first shot. They're about thirty feet from Woodward during the Z190s.

Woodward says the car had not reached her group in an earlier account.

    "The president and his wife were talking to each other, and for a moment
     it seemed that after all the waiting, we weren’t going to get to see them
     full-face. Then we started our own cheering section, and President and
     Mrs. Kennedy turned around, looked directly at us, flashed their well-
     known smiles, gave us a wave of recognition, then looked forward again.
     Ann and I remarked, almost echoing each other, how well and radiant
     they both looked. The car proceeded down Elm, and when it was about
     40 yards from us, we heard the first noise."

And again she says the car was a significant distance from her.

The only place I can find where it might be thought by Woodward that the Kennedys were both "full-faced" towards her group is in the Tina Towner film.



That would be more consistent with what Woodward described. As well, Woodward said she saw the Kennedys react to hearing the first shot:

    "The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they, too,
     didn’t believe the noise was really coming from a gun. Then after a moment’s
     pause there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car."

The President turns rightward in the Z150s with Mrs. Kennedy starting to turn in the Z160s. They don't turn rightward nowhere else during the approach to the Stemmons Frwy sign.

Also, no one said that JFK smiled and waved after the first shot.  Yet many ignore that evidence and conclude that this was a turn in response to hearing a gunshot.  All those who support second shot SBT do that.  They are just fooling themselves.
I am not relying only on Phil Willis.  His evidence is supported by several others including:

• His daughter, Linda, said that the first shot occurred when the President’s limousine was in line with her and the Stemmons sign, which puts it well before z223 and in that z195-205 area.

• His other daughter, Rosemary, turns her head sharply rearward toward the TSBD between z204 and z207.
• Hugh Betzner who said that he had started to wind his camera after taking his z186 photo when the first shot occurred.

Betzner is still lowering his camera by Z207 as he goes of sight in the Zapruder film. The Dorman film shows Betzner's head level and turning toward the Depository or the LBJ car about the same time. So Betzner winding his camera as he hears a shot does not relate to your belief that a first shot occurred Z195-Z205. Assuming Betzner winds his camera shortly thereafter (Z207 when he goes out of view in the film), it would be an argument that the shot he heard while winding the camera was the proposed SBT shot at Z223.

• T.E. Moore (24 H 534) who gave a statement saying "By the time President KENNEDY had reached the Thornton Freeway sign, a shot was fired and Mr. MOORE observed the President slumping forward in the Presidential car."  The President was opposite the Thornton sign at z200 - well before z223.

[Steve M. Galbraith]

This is a very good thread. Some interesting views/thoughts. Thanks to Dan for starting it.

And as always, thanks to Duncan for putting up with us group of three year olds.....

[Andrew Mason]

The only place I can find where it might be thought by Woodward that the Kennedys were both "full-faced" towards her group is in the Tina Towner film.

That fits what we see from z154 when JFK begins to turn right
The President turns rightward in the Z150s with Mrs. Kennedy starting to turn in the Z160s. They don't turn rightward nowhere else during the approach to the Stemmons Frwy sign.


That would be more consistent with what Woodward described. As well, Woodward said she saw the Kennedys react to hearing the first shot:

Why not use Mary Woodward's DMN article that she wrote within a couple of hours of the events:

• "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face.But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match. Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and robust he looked.
  
  As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.
  
  After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
  

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.  At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second, .  JFK then turns forward by z206. 

This is exactly what Mary Woodward described as occurring just before the first shot. She said that she thought that they were the last people the President acknowledged before that first "horrible, ear-shattering noise".

[Jerry Organ]

Why not use Mary Woodward's DMN article that she wrote within a couple of hours of the events:

• "The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face.But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match. Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and robust he looked.
  
  As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.
  
  After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right".
  

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.  At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second, .  JFK then turns forward by z206. 

This is exactly what Mary Woodward described as occurring just before the first shot. She said that she thought that they were the last people the President acknowledged before that first "horrible, ear-shattering noise".

    "The President was looking straight ahead and we were
     afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face."

The President was "looking straight ahead" meaning towards the crowd up by the corner as the car made the turn onto Elm. She was afraid she would not see his face ("we weren’t going to get to see them full-face.") Guess she was impatient.

    "But we started clapping and cheering"

Seems more likely they would interact with the President as the car ends its turn and the Kennedys might then look further along Elm to where her group were. According to you, they left it until the last second.

    "and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved,
     directly at us, it seemed."



    "Jackie was wearing a beautiful pink suit with beret to match.
     Two of us, who had seen the President last during the final
     weeks of the 1960 campaign remarked how relaxed and
     robust he looked."

According to you, they assess the President's appearance and make remarks over clapping and crowd noise between Z170 and Z190.

    "Ann and I remarked, almost echoing each other, how well
     and radiant they both looked"

We can see beginning that prior to z170 the President is facing forward and a bit to the right but not sharp right. Jackie is looking left.  At this point the President is approaching Mary Woodward and her friends (the President is opposite them at z190-195).  We can see that they are clapping.

The one woman in the Woodward group applauding is doing so as the film begins at Z133.

At z170-180 his head turns fully right and looks at them and he gives a full wave of his right hand and smiles.  Jackie's head turns from looking left to looking sharp right, as well from z173 to z192, which is one second,

Kennedy has already acknowledged the Woodward group (probably before the Zapruder film began). They're not that far apart at Z133. Woodward is on the right edge of the inter-sprocket area.



The Kennedys appeared a lot bigger to the Woodward group than they did to Zapruder.

The later moment when you contend Woodward saw both Kennedys look their way doesn't work because she can't see Jackie's face, and JFK is looking toward the cluster of people further along Elm than Woodward.

JFK then turns forward by z206.

I think she means when Kennedy stopped looking in her group's direction, before Z133. Woodward said that before the first sho  the Kennedys:

    "then looked forward again. Ann and I remarked, almost echoing
     each other, how well and radiant they both looked"

You have Kennedy looking forward by Z207 and a first shot at the latest Z205. So how do the two women calmly converse in -0.1 second?

We also have Woodward describing the President being uninjured by the first shot and her seeing both react to the sound of that shot by turning their heads.

    "The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they, too,
     didn’t believe the noise was really coming from a gun. Then after a moment’s
     pause there was another shot and I saw the President start slumping in the car."

The President turns rightward in the Z150s with Mrs. Kennedy starting to turn in the Z160s.