The First Shot

[Jerry Organ]

Greer, right beside him, said that the second came just before he turned around the first time and the third shot came after he turned a second time to look back.  We can time this in the zfilm and it is at least 2 seconds.

Since Greer first turns his head to look backward about Z250, it's more like 3.4 sec.





Greer's shirt front widens about the late Z-240s as he turns towards the middle of the car.

Say a shot at Z240 (about the time Connally opens his mouth to yell) teamed with a "first" shot at Z200; that'll get a 1..2....3 shot pattern. That means we have to move the first shot back to accommodate your tally of shot-spacing witnesses and an hypothetical reaction time for Greer. A hurried first shot fired from the SN window as the car was about to go behind the tree foliage would get 1.....2....3.

In the grand scheme of things, that kind of evidence is not as useful as actual witness reports about the relative shot spacing.

Your cherry-picks and confirmation bias in that regard undermine its usefulness. But say your 47 witnesses held up to scrutiny, and furthermore that they really did reflect the actual occurrence of what happened. Any scenario conclusion drawn from that just wouldn't include your first two shots, which are impossible with regard to trajectory and wound strikes.

If you still insist on a wounding shot in the Z190s and another at Z271, then you will have to shift the firing points away from the SN. If you hold on to the first shot being fired from the SN, then your Theory needs to consider:

• Bullet didn't transit Kennedy's neck
• Bullet transited Kennedy's neck, but deflected to strike Connally in the back
• Bullet missed Kennedy and struck Connally directly in the back

[Andrew Mason]

Since Greer first turns his head to look backward about Z250, it's more like 3.4 sec.



Greer's shirt front widens about the late Z-240s as he turns towards the middle of the car.

Tell me, Jerry, can you also see badge man in the shadows of the grassy knoll fence?

We cannot see Greer turned until about z280 and he is in the process of turning his head further right until about z285. He then holds that until he starts turning to the front at z292.  Greer said that when he turned he saw JBC falling back onto his wife. JBC does not begin to do that until z278.

But say your 47 witnesses held up to scrutiny, and furthermore that they really did reflect the actual occurrence of what happened. Any scenario conclusion drawn from that just wouldn't include your first two shots, which are impossible with regard to trajectory and wound strikes.

If you wanted to show they are impossible you could show the range of positions for JFK and JBC that would allow the shot through JFK's neck to strike the left thigh of JBC and then show that these do not begin to fit anything seen in the photographs or zfilm. 

I say that the most conservative estimate for frame z195 allows for the reasonable possibility that JFK's midline is 8-10 inches inside the car and JBC's is 15-18 inches inside the car; that the distance between JFK's neck exit wound and JBC's spine in z195 is 28-32 inches; that the angle to the car from the SN at z195 was 12-14 degrees; that JBC was turned 50-70 degrees right at z195.  So you would have to show that using those ranges of positions, a shot through JFK to JBC's left thigh was impossible. It isn't.  To determine the positions at z195 you can use z193 which is clearer - (unless you see significant movement between z193 and z195).

If you still insist on a wounding shot in the Z190s and another at Z271, then you will have to shift the firing points away from the SN. If you hold on to the first shot being fired from the SN, then your Theory needs to consider:

• Bullet didn't transit Kennedy's neck
• Bullet transited Kennedy's neck, but deflected to strike Connally in the back
• Bullet missed Kennedy and struck Connally directly in the back

The first transited JFK's neck.  There are at least 20 witnesses who saw JFK react to it. There is no evidence that JBC was hit on the left side of his back.  The second shot just missed JFK (Hickey saw his hair fly up on the second shot which, he said appeared to miss him) and struck JBC in the right armpit as he was turned right. Nellie said he was turned right when hit.  The exit wound in the chest below and medial to the right nipple coincides with the end of his right jacket sleeve as seen in z268-271 and it also explains the slight but sudden change in appearance of the shirt sleeve and hat brim that happens between z271 and z272:


The bullet fragmented on hitting the radius and fragments deflect up and forward striking the windshield and Tague.  A fragment or bone shard penetrated the palm side of the wrist.  It all fits the trajectory and wound evidence quite well.   And it fits the first shot hit and first shot location evidence. And it fits the shot pattern, which also fits the times required to aim those shots. And it fits Oswald firing all three shots.  What more do you need?

[Dan O'meara]

We cannot see Greer turned until about z280 and he is in the process of turning his head further right until about z285. He then holds that until he starts turning to the front at z292.  Greer said that when he turned he saw JBC falling back onto his wife. JBC does not begin to do that until z278. If you wanted to show they are impossible you could show the range of positions for JFK and JBC that would allow the shot through JFK's neck to strike the left thigh of JBC and then show that these do not begin to fit anything seen in the photographs or zfilm. 

Can't believe you're still using Greer.
Totally discredited as a witness earlier in this thread.
It seems you are impervious to reasoned argument.
Ride it out and press on.

I say that the most conservative estimate for frame z195 allows for the reasonable possibility that JFK's midline is 8-10 inches inside the car and JBC's is 15-18 inches inside the car; that the distance between JFK's neck exit wound and JBC's spine in z195 is 28-32 inches; that the angle to the car from the SN at z195 was 12-14 degrees; that JBC was turned 50-70 degrees right at z195.  So you would have to show that using those ranges of positions, a shot through JFK to JBC's left thigh was impossible. It isn't.  To determine the positions at z195 you can use z193 which is clearer - (unless you see significant movement between z193 and z195).
The first transited JFK's neck.  There are at least 20 witnesses who saw JFK react to it. There is no evidence that JBC was hit on the left side of his back.  The second shot just missed JFK (Hickey saw his hair fly up on the second shot which, he said appeared to miss him) and struck JBC in the right armpit as he was turned right. Nellie said he was turned right when hit.  The exit wound in the chest below and medial to the right nipple coincides with the end of his right jacket sleeve as seen in z268-271 and it also explains the sudden increase in sleeve that happens between z271 and z272:

Can't believe you're proposing z195
It's been demonstrated JFK is passing behind dense foliage at this time earlier in this thread.
Ride it out and press on

The bullet fragmented on hitting the radius and fragments deflect up and forward striking the windshield and Tague.  A fragment or bone shard penetrated the palm side of the wrist.  It all fits the trajectory and wound evidence quite well.   And it fits the first shot hit and first shot location evidence. And it fits the shot pattern, which also fits the times required to aim those shots. And it fits Oswald firing all three shots.  What more do you need?

At z271 JBC is more or "less shoulder on" to a shot from the TSBD.
The shot you propose somehow hits him around the back right armpit area
Even though the bullet is travelling away from JBC at the time of impact it suddenly makes a 50-60 degree right turn, passes through his abdomen, exits the front of his chest, which is facing towards Zapruder, smashes through his wrist bone, then goes on to hit Tague!!
Bring back the Magic Bullet, it all seems so reasonable now 

[Andrew Mason]

Can't believe you're still using Greer.
Totally discredited as a witness earlier in this thread.
It seems you are impervious to reasoned argument.
Ride it out and press on.

He was not accurate on when he accelerated.  That is the only thing you have shown him to be inaccurate on.  Why does that discredit the rest of his evidence, particularly evidence that is corroborated by the zfilm? That makes no sense.  What has been not been discredited is the evidence that the last shot was at z313. Perhaps you should take your advice, accept it and move on.....

Can't believe you're proposing z195
It's been demonstrated JFK is passing behind dense foliage at this time earlier in this thread.
Ride it out and press on

You seem to not understand what you can see in the Secret Service film taken in December 1963 which shows that JFK was visible when he was opposite the lamp post just to the east of where Mary Woodward stood. Mary Woodward was opposite JFK at z195.

At z271 JBC is more or "less shoulder on" to a shot from the TSBD.
The shot you propose somehow hits him around the back right armpit area
Even though the bullet is travelling away from JBC at the time of impact it suddenly makes a 50-60 degree right turn, passes through his abdomen, exits the front of his chest, which is facing towards Zapruder, smashes through his wrist bone, then goes on to hit Tague!!
Bring back the Magic Bullet, it all seems so reasonable now 

You should actually read my posts. How does the bullet pass through JBC's abdomen?  The baby picture shows that when the torso is turned sharply as we see in z271, a shot from the rear to the armpit exiting below the right nipple does not pass through the lung.  Besides, there is evidence that corroborates the evidence of a shot at around that time. 

[Jerry Organ]

Tell me, Jerry, can you also see badge man in the shadows of the grassy knoll fence?

At this stage, any conspiracy claim has more going for it than your failed Theory.

Have you considered metaphysics or a faith-based approach?

We cannot see Greer turned until about z280 and he is in the process of turning his head further right until about z285. He then holds that until he starts turning to the front at z292. 

A double porkie.

Greer said that when he turned he saw JBC falling back onto his wife. JBC does not begin to do that until z278.

Greer only says he saw Connally "start" to fall just as he, Greer, turned and that the Governor was falling towards Nellie, not "onto" her. The Governor's head moved about one foot towards Nellie between Z255 and Z271.

If you wanted to show they are impossible you could show the range of positions for JFK and JBC that would allow the shot through JFK's neck to strike the left thigh of JBC and then show that these do not begin to fit anything seen in the photographs or zfilm. 

You can't afford to move either man much without misaligning them as they appear in the Zapruder film.

I say that the most conservative estimate for frame z195 allows for the reasonable possibility that JFK's midline is 8-10 inches inside the car and JBC's is 15-18 inches inside the car; that the distance between JFK's neck exit wound and JBC's spine in z195 is 28-32 inches; that the angle to the car from the SN at z195 was 12-14 degrees; that JBC was turned 50-70 degrees right at z195.  So you would have to show that using those ranges of positions, a shot through JFK to JBC's left thigh was impossible. It isn't.  To determine the positions at z195 you can use z193 which is clearer - (unless you see significant movement between z193 and z195).

The first transited JFK's neck.  There are at least 20 witnesses who saw JFK react to it. There is no evidence that JBC was hit on the left side of his back.

We're looking at a contortionist or one of your pliable Gumby models to minutely get a bullet to the left of Connally's midline in the Z190s, let alone have it sail by the left side of the torso.

The second shot just missed JFK (Hickey saw his hair fly up on the second shot which, he said appeared to miss him)

Porkie Chestnut.



I don't mind repasting my work. Just like you don't mind repasting porkies.

and struck JBC in the right armpit as he was turned right. Nellie said he was turned right when hit.

She said he was like that when she noticed he was wounded. She wasn't sure, but she thought she might have been looking at the President when she heard the second shot. These witnesses didn't have digital recorders in their brains, anyway.

BTW, the Greer head turn in the early-Z250s and Nellie supposedly seeing Connally struck as he was turned right won't get a second shot pass the mid-Z240s. That adds about 1.5 sec to the gap between shots two and three. We're faced with the Z160s (if not earlier) to get back to 1.....2...3.

The exit wound in the chest below and medial to the right nipple coincides with the end of his right jacket sleeve as seen in z268-271

No. The jugular notch level is "behind" the right wrist in the line-of-sight to the camera. The right nipple would be just above the car rail, if fully visible.

and it also explains the slight but sudden change in appearance of the shirt sleeve and hat brim that happens between z271 and z272:

The hat is probably not being held too firmly as the wrist holding it was injured in the Z220s.


Look closely. What you perceive to be additional sleeve material seen between Z271 and Z272 is actually a corner of the hat that began to catch sunlight. It's slightly off-white and not as bright as the sunlit shirt material. The shade across the right hand and Stetson is from the parade bar.

The bullet fragmented on hitting the radius and fragments deflect up and forward striking the windshield and Tague.

This has more turns and impossible gyrations than how the critics present the SBT. You must dream about it happening like that. Must seem real to you.

A fragment or bone shard penetrated the palm side of the wrist.  It all fits the trajectory and wound evidence quite well.   And it fits the first shot hit and first shot location evidence. And it fits the shot pattern, which also fits the times required to aim those shots. And it fits Oswald firing all three shots.  What more do you need?

Unfortunately for you, every single mechanical aspect of your Theory's first two shots has now been blown to smithereens. Not just by me, but Mytton, Nickerson and Collins. You have nothing; nada. But I'll show you what sort of fellow I am. I hope you get at least an orange in your sock.

If you're going to remain faithful to the shot pattern, think second shot Z240s (or maybe earlier, like one sec earlier).

[Zeon Mason]

I think I agree somewhat with points made by everyone:)

I agree with Jerry that there is a quick turn of Jackie’s head in approx 1/2 a sec between z160-170. However, this may be some other noise than a rifle shot. It could have been an actual motorcycle backfire.

I agree with Mr. Collins opinion that a shooter in the SE window could possibly have taken shots from a seated position on the box nearest the pipes and was able to lean back and remain out of sight during the Hughes film segment of the JFK limo approaching TSBD (including turning on Elm st.) If he did so, however, then the WC theory for the box on the window ledge being used as rifle test is improbable. And what about the shell ejections? Do they fly over top of those stacked boxes if shooter fires from seated position near the pipes?

I agree with some of Andrew Masons reasons for his theory of the shots fired in a very brief few seconds,  in the 1....2..3 pattern and the 1st shot actually IS hitting JFK  Imo, however,  That 1st shot is at Z223 rather than earlier because of the tree, although the Willis girl head turn after full stop, may indicate slightly earlier at z205 perhaps in coincidence with Willis photo taken and just after Betzner photo at z186 approx. This spacing coincides fairly close to Harold Norman’s impressions of the shot spacing and his stated observation of hearing 1 shot, then saw JFK “slump” then heard 2 more shots after that.

I agree with the general SBT being plausible But only IF BOTH Connallys legs are turned towards the limo door in effect approx 45 degrees as with his apparent turned shoulders and face turned also rightward. In this position, the hat is held upside down with the right hand on top of the outer rim of the hat keeping it pressed down on top of his left leg. The well of the hat is thus hanging off the Left side of his left leg at the time of the Z223 shot that (Imo) DID penetrate thru JFK and still had enough momentum to penetrate thru Gov. Connolly also. The projectile, however, was probably NOT CE 399 as no bullet experiment except for perhaps the one  with 36” length array of sideways glued 1” pine boards , produces an MC bullet with such minimal deformation as CE 399 .

[Andrew Mason]

Unfortunately for you, every single mechanical aspect of your Theory's first two shots has now been blown to smithereens. Not just by me, but Mytton, Nickerson and Collins. You have nothing; nada. But I'll show you what sort of fellow I am. I hope you get at least an orange in your sock.

Well, it hasn't really been tested, has it?  All we have to go on is your and other's "expert" opinion.  You have not done as I asked and given us a range that JFK's midline could have been from the right side of the car; you have not given us a range that JBC's midline could have been in relation to JFK's; you have not given us a range for the separation of JFK's neck from JBC's spine; and you have not given us a range for the angle that JBC is turned at z195.  Until that is accurately determined, no one can say that the SN to JFK neck to JBC thigh trajectory was not possible.  I suggest that it was quite possible from z190-200 or so.  No one has proven otherwise.

If you're going to remain faithful to the shot pattern, think second shot Z240s (or maybe earlier, like one sec earlier).

That would require a first shot before Zapruder started filming.  The evidence from multiple independent sources is that the first shot was after z186 and that it struck JFK. 

It is not a matter of remaining faithful to the shot pattern. The 1.......2...3 shot pattern is based on multiple sources of real and independent evidence, not faith. 

The SBT on the other hand, is based on the notion that this evidence is somehow not only wrong, but that there was something operating that caused over 40 witnesses (plus a host of others who simply described one shot and then two more shots) to get it wrong the same way.  Belief in such things is based on faith because there is certainly no evidence that that could occur, let alone that it did in this case.

[Jerry Organ]

Well, it hasn't really been tested, has it? 

It's been tested. And to a reasonable degree of precision. You just don't like the results.

All we have to go on is your and other's "expert" opinion.

Several years learning SketchUp and with some of the best models going. About as "expert" an evaluation as your Theory will ever get.

You have not done as I asked

Seems you can't get enough of me.

and given us a range that JFK's midline could have been from the right side of the car; you have not given us a range that JBC's midline could have been in relation to JFK's; you have not given us a range for the separation of JFK's neck from JBC's spine; and you have not given us a range for the angle that JBC is turned at z195.  Until that is accurately determined, no one can say that the SN to JFK neck to JBC thigh trajectory was not possible.  I suggest that it was quite possible from z190-200 or so.

If this is what you're going on, then, yes, anything is possible.


Very Escheresque.

You can't do 2D and 3D. Why not get a few 1/4" dowels (they're about 4' long) at Home Depot and paint them orange or yellow. Then get two men (one who's extremely flexible) about 6' 1" (or even around 5' 10"). Maybe from your law firm. Then get two chairs. Make a height differential. Trim dowels to various lengths, starting at 24" and attach loops on each end that go around your buddies' necks. Have paper bags if they request one for their heads. Learn how to use a digital camera.

No one has proven otherwise.

How's that? Is there something wrong with the SketchUp program? Are you having trouble seeing?

That would require a first shot before Zapruder started filming.  The evidence from multiple independent sources is that the first shot was after z186 and that it struck JFK. 

I wish Tim Nickerson was here.

It is not a matter of remaining faithful to the shot pattern. The 1.......2...3 shot pattern is based on multiple sources of real and independent evidence, not faith. 

Remember I looked at the first two pages of your PDF and found only one witness. ( Link )

The SBT on the other hand, is based on the notion that this evidence is somehow not only wrong, but that there was something operating that caused over 40 witnesses (plus a host of others who simply described one shot and then two more shots) to get it wrong the same way.  Belief in such things is based on faith because there is certainly no evidence that that could occur, let alone that it did in this case.

Whatever comes of a 1......2...3 scenario, a reliable honest one won't be involving your first two shots from the SN. It's now a fact that physically your first two shots have zero basis in reality.

Are you having trouble dismissing a Theory you spent almost two decades promoting? You have to start thinking about your family and professional reputation. Don't be ashamed. 2020 wasn't good for a lot of folks.