The First Shot

[John Mytton]

It was a windy fall day.

Maybe on this windy fall day, if you could supply some examples of Connally's jacket billowing at any other point while he was in the Limo, then we might be able to continue this conversation but otherwise your meteorological report is duly noted.

JohnM

[Bill Chapman]

Seems no one was affected by any gusts at this point
Connally's lapel flaps out & forward and immediately comes to rest as it would with the missile passing through

[Dan O'meara]

The FBI conclusion that JFK was not clear of the foliage (that is, the foliage in late May 1964) until z207 is based on their re-enactment using the Secret Service car (the "Queen Mary") from which this photo is made:

Even based on that photo from the FBI re-enactment, we can see everything back to the rear of the car which was about 7 feet behind JFK.  So JFK would have been visible 7 feet earlier.  At a foot a frame, that brings it down to z200 even in the re-enactment.

But it is not really an accurate re-enactment.  The foliage Oswald saw was similar to that depicted in the December 1963 Secret Service film which is somewhat less full than in May 64.  The president just had to move past the centre of the outer branch to be quite visible:


Also, because they used the wrong car, you can see that JFK does not appear in quite the same position from Zapruder's position in the reenactment:


So, in my view JFK was in Oswald's sights several frames before z200.  I may be over-stating it a bit at z190 but I think it is safe to say JFK was clear to Oswald by z195.  But more significant perhaps is the fact that the tree branches never completely obscured Oswald's view so Oswald could have sighted on the edge of the leaves, tracked the car aiming at a point about 2 feet in from the right side of the car and fired as soon as JFK was just about to come into the sights or cross-hairs (depending on which he was using).

It is clear from the evidence available that JFK was behind the foliage Z190-z200 and I think we can dispense with the notion the assassin would be firing through the oak tree. Obviously your only recourse is to question the validity of the evidence as it blows your notion of a shot this early out of the water. Interestingly it also refutes the memory of Phil Willis that he was startled by a shot this early.
At best you would have us believe the very instant JFK emerged from behind the last leaf of foliage the shot was taken. This makes no sense. The assassin may have tracked the limo through the foliage but the shot would have been taken once the limo was in the clear, say z223 

[Dan O'meara]

The SS simulated the Limo position at a number of Zapruder frames and compared these locations to what Oswald would see through his scope from his Sniper's nest, but unfortunately the Limo the SS used was not the same model so the position of Connally as compared to Kennedy could not be accurately recreated and has led many people to say that the positions of the two men does not support the Single Bullet Fact.





A direct comparison between Z225(a fraction of a second after the SBF) and the SS recreation shows that the Connally stand-in was too high and too close to the side of the Limo, now when we align the corrected position with the SS recreation we can see that Connally indeed was in the location that fully supports the SBF.



Connally's jacket billows as the bullet passes through.



Both men react simultaneously.



JohnM

Hi John,

I make the case for both men being shot through at the same time earlier in the thread using some of the graphics you posted. Your main graphic clearly demonstrates the height issue while Jerry clears up the issue of the relative lateral positions of JFK and JBC.
When watching the z-film it could hardly be more obvious that both men are shot through at the same time, it is has always baffled me how some researchers can deny it. It's like denying JFK's back/left motion. Elsewhere I've talked about the phenomena of 'unseeing' and I think that there is no greater example of it than this. Is it because the story has emerged that the WC needed to invent the SBT in order to account for all the injuries caused by three shots, therefore, no matter what is shown in the Z-film it can't support the WC's findings. I don't know.
What I would like to know, John, is do you view the shot that passes through both men as the first shot or do you believe there was an earlier missed shot?

[Jerry Organ]

Hi John,

I make the case for both men being shot through at the same time earlier in the thread using some of the graphics you posted. Your main graphic clearly demonstrates the height issue while Jerry clears up the issue of the relative lateral positions of JFK and JBC.
When watching the z-film it could hardly be more obvious that both men are shot through at the same time, it is has always baffled me how some researchers can deny it. It's like denying JFK's back/left motion. Elsewhere I've talked about the phenomena of 'unseeing' and I think that there is no greater example of it than this. Is it because the story has emerged that the WC needed to invent the SBT in order to account for all the injuries caused by three shots, therefore, no matter what is shown in the Z-film it can't support the WC's findings. I don't know.
What I would like to know, John, is do you view the shot that passes through both men as the first shot or do you believe there was an earlier missed shot?

[Andrew Mason]

It is clear from the evidence available that JFK was behind the foliage Z190-z200 and I think we can dispense with the notion the assassin would be firing through the oak tree. Obviously your only recourse is to question the validity of the evidence as it blows your notion of a shot this early out of the water. Interestingly it also refutes the memory of Phil Willis that he was startled by a shot this early.
At best you would have us believe the very instant JFK emerged from behind the last leaf of foliage the shot was taken. This makes no sense. The assassin may have tracked the limo through the foliage but the shot would have been taken once the limo was in the clear, say z223 

The FBI re-enactment, even with its many errors, shows that JFK was visible by z200.  A first shot at z223 is all perfectly reasonable and logical - except your reason and logic is not evidence and, more importantly, your conclusion does not fit large bodies of consistent evidence.  I will explain:

1. As you have noted, the evidence is rather overwhelming that JFK reacted to the first shot. There are at least 20 witnesses who saw him react immediately and not a single witness said that he continued to smile and wave after the first "horrible ear-shattering noise"

2. The shot pattern recalled by the vast majority of witnesses (over 40 by my count) was the last two shots were closer together but not so close as to be impossible to have been fired by the MC, which requires around 2.3 seconds to fire successive aimed shots.  There is strong evidence that at least one bullet was fired by Oswald's MC.  (There is also strong evidence that all three shots came from the SN using the MC).  In order for the first shot to have been at z223, the third shot could not have been as early as z313 in order to fit the shot pattern: 1.......2...3 and have close to 2.3 seconds between the last two shots. Therefore there must have been a third shot after z313.  There is quite a body of evidence that z313 was the last shot so one would have to discard that evidence.

3. If the SBT occurred at z223 then Gov. Connally (and his wife) was hallucinating when he said that he heard the first shot, realized it was a rifle shot and turned to look at JFK saying "oh, no, no, no" (as Nellie recalled) before the second shot hit him with an impact that he felt (but did not hear) and which Nellie saw.  So you have to throw out the Connally's evidence.  You also have to throw out Greer's evidence which is that he turned around to see Gov. Connally falling back onto his wife immediately after the second shot.  He is already lying down by z313.

The problem here is that everyone has looked at the zfilm and concluded that they can "see" the shot hitting both men at that time. They both react together if you assume that JFK is not already reacting behind the sign and just begins to react immediately as the bullet strikes him at z223 (another conjecture). JBC said he reacted to the first shot.  And JBC insisted that his reaction was well before he felt the second shot that hit him in the back. So we cannot judge by his reaction, even if it was "simultaneous" with JFK reacting, that he was hit in the back at that time if those reactions are to the first shot (which, as you agree, according to the evidence, there was only one shot to that point).

Btw do you have any reasonable explanation of why Connally's jacket suddenly billows a fraction of a second before both Kennedy and Connally simultaneously violently react?

As far as the jacket "bulge" is concerned, originally, this was a theory of a lapel flip until someone pointed out that the lapel was not struck.  Then the armchair Rorschach experts opined that it was a jacket "bulge". To suggest that a bullet exiting the right jacket pocket is going to bulge the jacket needed experimental confirmation. Certainly a bullet alone is not going to do that, as experiments showed.  That is because in order to impart momentum to the jacket the bullet has to lose momentum in passing through the cloth.  It loses so little momentum in passing through that jacket cloth that the bullet would not move the entire jacket panel significantly. So then the story changed to - oh, the jacket bulged because the impact from the spray of blood and tissue exiting from the chest caused this.  Again another conjecture without evidence or experimental support.  The jacket bears no evidence of such blood and tissue:


Oh, yes. But Nellie had the jacket cleaned.... and the story goes on.

What we see in those frames is a change in the amount of white shirt that is visible to Zapruder.  There is no discernible "bulge" in the jacket.  The decrease in white shirt is consistent with the jacket moving over it because JBC is moving.  After all, we agree that JBC is physically reacting. He is preparing to turn around as he does in subsequent frames. As he moves his right arm up from a resting position and he prepares to turn around to the rear, the jacket moves. 

[Jerry Organ]

JFK was a possible target from the SN at and after this point:

when JFK was opposite the lamppost and about 10 feet from the Thornton Freeway sign.  That corresponds to Zapruder frame 190 by my calculation.

I think we went over your cross-lines being out of whack a few years ago. Here's a new approach.

Mason, you really don't know the first thing about how to interpret photographs, do you?

Because you're wedded to your wacko Theory, you needed Oswald to track Kennedy through the foliage and for the President to be clear by Z190. So you foistered that fuzzy frame from the Secret Service film.

Also, I would like to know how the Secret Service film done in December 5, 1963 was documented.  The film does not appear to be an exhibit to either the WC or HSCA although stills from what appears to be a similar re-enactment done the same day but which is not in the film are found in CE875.

They reenacted the motorcade procession several times and with different lenses. ( Link )

Back then it was common among professionals to "bracket" images.

[Dan O'meara]

All perfectly reasonable and logical - except your reason and logic is not evidence and, more importantly, your conclusion does not fit large bodies of consistent evidence.

My logic is based on the evidence provided by the re-enactment. At z186 JFK is passing behind thick foliage, by your own admission the FBI state he is not clear of this foliage until z207. Therefore JFK is behind the foliage from z190-z200. You cannot deny this logic.

1. As you have noted, the evidence is rather overwhelming that JFK reacted to the first shot. There are at least 20 witnesses who saw him react immediately and not a single witness said that he continued to smile and wave after the first "horrible ear-shattering noise"

Agreed

2. The shot pattern recalled by the vast majority of witnesses (over 40 by my count) was the last two shots were closer together but not so close as to be impossible to have been fired by the MC, which requires around 2.3 seconds to fire successive aimed shots.  There is strong evidence that at least one bullet was fired by Oswald's MC.  (There is also strong evidence that all three shots came from the SN using the MC).  In order for the first shot to have been at z223, the third shot could not have been as early as z313 in order to fit the shot pattern: 1.......2...3 and have close to 2.3 seconds between the last two shots. Therefore there must have been a third shot after z313.  There is quite a body of evidence that z313 was the last shot so one would have to discard that evidence.

I agree with the shot pattern. There may well be evidence for z313 as being the last shot but there is also a body of evidence for a shot after the headshot. In his analysis of ear-witness statements concerning the shots, Pat Speer identifies 26 witness he feels confident describe a shot after the headshot and 16 witnesses who are probably/possibly describing such a shot. How can this evidence be discarded?

3. If the SBT occurred at z223 then Gov. Connally (and his wife) was hallucinating when he said that he heard the first shot, realized it was a rifle shot and turned to look at JFK saying "oh, no, no, no" (as Nellie recalled) before the second shot hit him with an impact that he felt (but did not hear) and which Nellie saw.  So you have to throw out the Connally's evidence.  You also have to throw out Greer's evidence which is that he turned around to see Gov. Connally falling back onto his wife immediately after the second shot.  He is already lying down by z313.

JBC's testimony has been dealt elsewhere in this thread. The bottom line is this, it impossible for the shot at z271 (from the TSBD or anywhere near it) you are proposing to hit JBC causing the injuries he suffered as he is turned too far round in his seat. It's impossible.



Not only is JFK concealed behind the foliage for your first shot, JBC is turned too far round in his seat for the second!

The problem here is that everyone has looked at the zfilm and concluded that they can "see" the shot hitting both men at that time. They both react together if you assume that JFK is not already reacting behind the sign and just begins to react immediately as the bullet strikes him at z223 (another conjecture). JBC said he reacted to the first shot.  And JBC insisted that his reaction was well before he felt the second shot that hit him in the back. So we cannot judge by his reaction, even if it was "simultaneous" with JFK reacting, that he was hit in the back at that time if that was the first shot. 

Anyone who can "see" the shot has got insanely good eyesight. I can see them reacting in a very extreme way that indicates to me the have both been shot.

As far as the jacket "bulge" is concerned, originally, this was a theory of a lapel flip until someone pointed out that the lapel was not struck.  Then the armchair Rorschach experts opined that it was a jacket "bulge". To suggest that a bullet exiting the right jacket pocket is going to bulge the jacket needed experimental confirmation. Certainly a bullet alone is not going to do that, as experiments showed.  That is because in order to impart momentum to the jacket the bullet has to lose momentum in passing through the cloth.  It loses so little momentum in passing through that jacket cloth that the bullet would not move the entire jacket panel significantly. So then the story changed to - oh, the jacket bulged because the impact from the spray of blood and tissue exiting from the chest caused this.  Again another conjecture without evidence or experimental support.  The jacket bears no evidence of such blood and tissue:

The jacket bulge occurs before JBC begins to move in any meaningful way and can be seen as something clearly related to the extreme movements he makes immediately after the 'bulge'. That the right side of his jacket bulges and also happens to have a bullet pass through it is a great coincidence. The jacket bulges and for those passing it off as an effect of the wind, look at the flag at the front of the limo on JBC's side, it is barely moving giving a good indication of the wind speed at that moment.