The First Shot

[John Mytton]

The SS simulated the Limo position at a number of Zapruder frames and compared these locations to what Oswald would see through his scope from his Sniper's nest, but unfortunately the Limo the SS used was not the same model so the position of Connally as compared to Kennedy could not be accurately recreated and has led many people to say that the positions of the two men does not support the Single Bullet Fact.





A direct comparison between Z225(a fraction of a second after the SBF) and the SS recreation shows that the Connally stand-in was too high and too close to the side of the Limo, now when we align the corrected position with the SS recreation we can see that Connally indeed was in the location that fully supports the SBF.



Connally's jacket billows as the bullet passes through.



Both men react simultaneously.



JohnM

[Andrew Mason]

Hmmm...
If JFK isn't clear of the foliage until z207 and the graphic Jerry posted above has JFK still in the foliage at z186 this surely means a shot at z190 would have been through the foliage.
Am I missing something?

The FBI conclusion that JFK was not clear of the foliage (that is, the foliage in late May 1964) until z207 is based on their re-enactment using the Secret Service car (the "Queen Mary") from which this photo is made:

Even based on that photo from the FBI re-enactment, we can see everything back to the rear of the car which was about 7 feet behind JFK.  So JFK would have been visible 7 feet earlier.  At a foot a frame, that brings it down to z200 even in the re-enactment.

But it is not really an accurate re-enactment.  The foliage Oswald saw was similar to that depicted in the December 1963 Secret Service film which is somewhat less full than in May 64.  The president just had to move past the centre of the outer branch to be quite visible:


Also, because they used the wrong car, you can see that JFK does not appear in quite the same position from Zapruder's position in the reenactment:


So, in my view JFK was in Oswald's sights several frames before z200.  I may be over-stating it a bit at z190 but I think it is safe to say JFK was clear to Oswald by z195.  But more significant perhaps is the fact that the tree branches never completely obscured Oswald's view so Oswald could have sighted on the edge of the leaves, tracked the car aiming at a point about 2 feet in from the right side of the car and fired as soon as JFK was just about to come into the sights or cross-hairs (depending on which he was using).

[Andrew Mason]

A direct comparison between Z225(a fraction of a second after the SBF) and the SS recreation shows that the Connally stand-in was too high and too close to the side of the Limo, now when we align the corrected position with the SS recreation we can see that Connally indeed was in the location that fully supports the SBF.

Thanks for posting the above composite gif which shows that the relative positions of JFK and JBC in the re-enactment are very accurate except for their relative height.

We can see through the crosshairs of the re-enactment view from the SN that the path through JFK goes to the left of Governor Connally's midline which is no where near his right armpit, even if you lowered the jump seat.  How do you explain that this is consistent with the single bullet "fact"?

[Jerry Organ]

Thanks for posting the above composite gif which shows that the relative positions of JFK and JBC in the re-enactment are very accurate except for their relative height.

Not just a height change in the composite but the JBC figure shifts inward relative to Kennedy.

We can see through the crosshairs of the re-enactment view from the SN that the path through JFK goes to the left of Governor Connally's midline which is no where near his right armpit, even if you lowered the jump seat.  How do you explain that this is consistent with the single bullet "fact"?

The JFK figure in the Queen Mary couldn't get as far to the right interior wall of the car as could the President in the 100-X. The QM's fold-down convertible roof canopy was in the way. The FBI positioned the JBC figure in the middle of the QM's jump seat and had the JFK figure sit as far to his right as possible. I believe the

They positioned the JFK figure where he was in the Zapruder film and made individual still photos of frames they sought to reenact. They would advance the car and stop it for each shot.


The Warren Report says "Any differences were taken into account". They added:

    "Pictures taken of the President's limousine on November 22,
     1963, showed that the Governor sat immediately in front of
     the President. Even though the precise distance cannot be
     ascertained, it is apparent that President Kennedy was
     somewhat to the Governor's right."

The Itek study of the Zapruder frames concluded likewise.


Nellie was pretty tight against the car's left side and Jackie is very much away from the left side. And yet the Connallys are closer in space than the Kennedys.



Of course, you're smarter than the FBI and Warren Commission.

[John Mytton]

Thanks for posting the above composite gif which shows that the relative positions of JFK and JBC in the re-enactment are very accurate except for their relative height.

We can see through the crosshairs of the re-enactment view from the SN that the path through JFK goes to the left of Governor Connally's midline which is no where near his right armpit, even if you lowered the jump seat.  How do you explain that this is consistent with the single bullet "fact"?

It's simply a matter of perspective, the Limo's were different, look at the following GIF and how far forward the Kellerman stand-in is as compared to the actual Kellerman and it follows that the Connally stand-in was also forward(see comparison photo's below) from where Connally actually was, which by definition means that Connally in this comparison GIF was directly behind and therefore must have been sitting further inboard.



The two Limo's from side on show where Kennedy, Connally and Kellerman were positioned relative to their respective stand-in's.



Btw do you have any reasonable explanation of why Connally's jacket suddenly billows a fraction of a second before both Kennedy and Connally simultaneously violently react?





JohnM

[Jerry Organ]

The FBI conclusion that JFK was not clear of the foliage (that is, the foliage in late May 1964) until z207 is based on their re-enactment using the Secret Service car (the "Queen Mary") from which this photo is made:

Even based on that photo from the FBI re-enactment, we can see everything back to the rear of the car which was about 7 feet behind JFK.  So JFK would have been visible 7 feet earlier.  At a foot a frame, that brings it down to z200 even in the re-enactment.

Wouldn't tracking have been difficult between Z185 and Z200?

But it is not really an accurate re-enactment.  The foliage Oswald saw was similar to that depicted in the December 1963 Secret Service film which is somewhat less full than in May 64.

Now the foliage is "similar'. Yesterday you said:

    "First of all, the FBI did their reenactment in May 1964 after the
     new spring foliage and branches had appeared.  The tree in
     November 1963 did not look like that, as we see in the Secret
     Service film from early December 1963."

That's one of the biggest backpedals I've seen in awhile. As big as Rudy Giuliani disavowing Sidney Powell.



You just knew someone was bound to compare the pictures. But I shouldn't chide you. Progress is progress.

The president just had to move past the centre of the outer branch to be quite visible:

Also, because they used the wrong car, you can see that JFK does not appear in quite the same position from Zapruder's position in the reenactment:

So, in my view JFK was in Oswald's sights several frames before z200.  I may be over-stating it a bit at z190 but I think it is safe to say JFK was clear to Oswald by z195.

Go with Z200.

But more significant perhaps is the fact that the tree branches never completely obscured Oswald's view so Oswald could have sighted on the edge of the leaves, tracked the car aiming at a point about 2 feet in from the right side of the car and fired as soon as JFK was just about to come into the sights or cross-hairs (depending on which he was using).

Looks like I eased up on you too soon.

[John Tonkovich]

It's simply a matter of perspective, the Limo's were different, look at the following GIF and how far forward the Kellerman stand-in is as compared to the actual Kellerman and it follows that the Connally stand-in was also forward(see comparison photo's below) from where Connally actually was, which by definition means that Connally in this comparison GIF was directly behind and therefore must have been sitting further inboard.



The two Limo's from side on show where Kennedy, Connally and Kellerman were positioned relative to their respective stand-in's.



Btw do you have any reasonable explanation of why Connally's jacket suddenly billows a fraction of a second before both Kennedy and Connally simultaneously violently react?





JohnM

It was a windy fall day.

[Jerry Organ]

It was a windy fall day.

Maybe a Texas dust devil?

Mason says Connally and his clothing are moving funny because the Governor is "expressing concern" for Kennedy.