The First Shot

[Bill Chapman]

Echoes, anyone?

[Jerry Organ]

The first sentence is correct. The second is not.  See my compilation of their evidence. Few witnesses quantified the time intervals.  Many indicated that the spacing was longer than a second.

I see your first witness is high-confidence. No surprise. Poor Bob Jackson is fast becoming your "star witness".

Please explain how your second witness, Linda Willis, could see the President slump about the time of your first shot.



Rather than during the first two shots,  Hurchel Jacks could just as well be saying Youngblood got into the back seat during the last two shots.

    "He climbed to the rear of the seat with the Vice President and appeared
     to be shielding the Vice President with his own body. At that time I heard
     two more shots ring out."

But we know Youngblood didn't hop over the front seat even then because Johnson and him are seated in their respective seats in the Altgens photo.

Lady Bird doesn't specific shot spanning. I don't why you include Paul Landis, presumably because he did so much during "the interval between the first and second shots" that it supports a 1.......2...3 span. But, as you point out, he's a two-shot witness, so he could be doing all that during the last two shots or over the span of all the shots.

And that's just the first two pages. You can't get anything over on this Forum. Do you really expect to peddle this nonsense to a panel of jurists or government panel of experts?

Greer said he turned around AFTER the second shot and he is already turned around by z282. All you can really conclude is that the last two shots were closer together.

Why Z282? We can see enough of Greer's face by Z277 to know he's turned around about as far as he ever got. The film also shows Greer turned around by frame 273 (when we first see his hairline clearly; it's the same as later frames).



Greer is probably turned to his right in the Altgens photo. The Greer "head" dimensions and placement shown above are consistent with my 3D work on it so far. When, in Z294, we get to see clearly Greer's head not turned so far backward (but still turned to the side), only the forehead is sunlit, just like the "face" in the Altgens photo.



Kellerman begins to turn his head to his left about the late-Z240s. Possibly, both Greer and Kellerman heard Connally shouting beginning at Z242, which finally prompted them to look back. In Greer's case, he said he heard the second shot before turning his head.

This doesn't do much for your "second shot" at Z271. You have to learn to follow the evidence.

[Chris Bristow]

Andrew, I counted 35 who said the last shots were closer but that is not specific of course. 22 of those used terms like "In rapid succession" or "almost at the same time". That is significant.

[Chris Bristow]

The accounts in which the last two sounds were almost simultaneous or very close together (less than the time required to aim and fire the rifle) were most likely describing the sounds of the impacts of the bullet (or one of its fragments)  with the skull, or the inside of the windshield or the sound of the skull exploding (not the sound of a separate shot). In these cases their accounts would be describing a sound that was mistaken for a shot. And therefore these accounts should not be considered as describing the last two shots closer together and should removed from this category.


That said, using statistics of witness accounts alone (without other evidence to substantiate it) to attempt to make sense of this aspect is pointless. There are too many variables, and most witness accounts were taken after a period of time in which other descriptions from other witnesses (seen on TV or heard on radio or read in the papers and magazines or communications in person) could have colored their memories.

Our memories are reconstructions (not taped replays) and are based on associations. They are one of the least reliable forms of evidence. Basing one’s theory on witness accounts, without confirmation from other evidence, is not recommended. And if one bases a theory solely upon statistics of witness accounts then starts to look for some other evidence to support it, confirmation bias is most likely going to follow.

Charles, the sound of a shock wave or muzzle blast is just not similar to the sound of a piece of shrapnel, The sound of the round hitting JFK's head was heard by several people and it is also a distinct sound different from a shock wave or muzzle blast. I think it was Connally or Kellerman who described the sound  like a melon being broken open. I think Kellerman and Greer would easily differentiate between rounds entering the limo and shrapnel.
 Basing a theory on the statistics of witness accounts is exactly what a police detective does isn't it? It is based on the majority of witnesses. That does not mean that they draw a conclusion from it, they use it to create a theory and follow it to see if it is correct. I am not saying that the witnesses statements are proof, they are circumstantial evidence and compelling because of the number of witnesses and the statements of two SS agents who had fire arms training and were so close to the action.
 

[Chris Bristow]

Echoes, anyone?

Bill, most heard three shots so where were the echos? I think if echos were an issue we would have many people reporting 4 to six shots
 The cop on the East side of the Elm/Houston corner heard major echos bounce between the buildings and I assume the sound would have bounced its way East on Elm. Two women on Main in the courthouse heard echos and I assume the sound bounced its way East on Main. One SS agent in the follow up car said there was an extremely loud echo from the underpass, so loud he could not tell were the shots were coming from. It is possible he heard another shot not an echo since it was so loud. It could still be the case that the underpass echo sounded like another shot but I think Kellerman and Greer were going by the sound of a shock wave heading towards them followed by a round impact.
Witnesses who experienced echos tended to recognize them as such. But it is the fact they mostly reported only three shots that tells me echos were not a big issue.   

[Charles Collins]

Charles, the sound of a shock wave or muzzle blast is just not similar to the sound of a piece of shrapnel, The sound of the round hitting JFK's head was heard by several people and it is also a distinct sound different from a shock wave or muzzle blast. I think it was Connally or Kellerman who described the sound  like a melon being broken open. I think Kellerman and Greer would easily differentiate between rounds entering the limo and shrapnel.
 Basing a theory on the statistics of witness accounts is exactly what a police detective does isn't it? It is based on the majority of witnesses. That does not mean that they draw a conclusion from it, they use it to create a theory and follow it to see if it is correct. I am not saying that the witnesses statements are proof, they are circumstantial evidence and compelling because of the number of witnesses and the statements of two SS agents who had fire arms training and were so close to the action.

Every case is unique, so generalizations are really not going to be advisable. I believe that police detectives rely mostly on the physical evidence to determine likely theories of what occurred. The witness accounts are of interest but not considered very reliable. Here’s an example: Mason has his theory that JFK was hit in the back of the base of his neck with the first shot, and that JBC was hit with a separate shot. The physical evidence doesn’t support that theory because it can’t account for where the bullet went after it exited JFK’s throat. It would have hit something in the limo and there would have been evidence of it. The only theory that fits the physical evidence is the single bullet theory. JBC was positioned such that that bullet hit him in the back near his right armpit. Once that was realized the physical evidence fit.

 One shot missed. Exactly when it occurred, and why it missed are questions that are difficult to answer. The physical evidence suggests that it probably hit the manhole cover on the south side of Elm Street, ricocheted and hit the curb next to Tague. And the ergonomics (physical evidence) in the sniper’s nest suggest that interference from the conduit or the top box could have caused that shot to happen inadvertently before it was fully aimed. Proving that theory is probably not possible. Jack Ruby made sure of that.

[Jerry Organ]

Every case is unique, so generalizations are really not going to be advisable. I believe that police detectives rely mostly on the physical evidence to determine likely theories of what occurred. The witness accounts are of interest but not considered very reliable. Here’s an example: Mason has his theory that JFK was hit in the back of the base of his neck with the first shot, and that JBC was hit with a separate shot. The physical evidence doesn’t support that theory because it can’t account for where the bullet went after it exited JFK’s throat. It would have hit something in the limo and there would have been evidence of it.

The Mason Theory has the CE399 bullet transit Kennedy's neck and go on to pass to the left of Connally (not striking his torso or arm) and then strike the Governor's left thigh, when it stopped. He thinks the bullet was slowed down enough when it left the neck to not fracture the thigh bone.

Mason's second shot at Z271-ish is fired from the Sniper's Nest and directly strikes the Governor in the back and then the arm. I guess the bullet fractures or something. This is where Greer hears the second shot and is supposed to look back around Z282 and see the Governor "start to fall". The Governor's actions between emerging from behind the sign and being struck in the Z270s are explained as "expressing concern" for the President.

Mason appears to be on Planet Earth with the head shot.

[Andrew Mason]

I see your first witness is high-confidence. No surprise. Poor Bob Jackson is fast becoming your "star witness".

Well, he is a Pulitzer Prize winning photographer. so that makes him somewhat of a star. That also indicates that he has some good observational skills.  But I have to thank you for pointing out Malcolm Kilduff whose later statements I was not aware of until you kindly pointed it out. Funny how that is: the more one digs, the more evidence one finds that the shot pattern was 1.....2...3.

Please explain how your second witness, Linda Willis, could see the President slump about the time of your first shot.

I don't have to explain.  Her testimony speaks for itself:
"Miss WILLIS. Yes; I heard one. Then there was a little bit of time, and then there were two real fast bullets together. When the first one hit, well, the President turned from waving to the people, and he grabbed his throat, and he kind of slumped forward, and then I couldn’t tell where the second shot went."

All you have to do is look at the Zapruder film to see JFK doing exactly what Linda Willis said she saw...AFTER the first shot and before "two real fast bullets together".  So, despite what your suspicions may be from your photo analysis, she was able to see that.

Rather than during the first two shots,  Hurchel Jacks could just as well be saying Youngblood got into the back seat during the last two shots.

    "He climbed to the rear of the seat with the Vice President and appeared
     to be shielding the Vice President with his own body. At that time I heard
     two more shots ring out."

But we know Youngblood didn't hop over the front seat even then because Johnson and him are seated in their respective seats in the Altgens photo.

I don't know what you think you are seeing in Altgens #6 but it looks to me like something is blocking a clear view of the right side of the back seat to the right of Lady Bird. What else could that be?  We can see the top/side of the back of Johnson's head but we can't see Younblood's head anywhere.

Why Z282? We can see enough of Greer's face by Z277 to know he's turned around about as far as he ever got. The film also shows Greer turned around by frame 273 (when we first see his hairline clearly; it's the same as later frames).



Greer is probably turned to his right in the Altgens photo.

It is absolutely impossible to tell what direction Greer is looking in the Altgens photo.  There is just shadow.  But if you look at the zfilm during this time his chest and shoulders do not move at all.

Kellerman begins to turn his head to his left about the late-Z240s. Possibly, both Greer and Kellerman heard Connally shouting beginning at Z242, which finally prompted them to look back. In Greer's case, he said he heard the second shot before turning his head.

This doesn't do much for your "second shot" at Z271. You have to learn to follow the evidence.

The second shot at z271 is consistent with:
1. JBC sailing toward the front before falling back on his wife
2. change in appearance of JBC's cuff from z271-272
3. movement of the sunvisor z271-272
4. JFK's hair flying up from z273-276 as reported by Hickey.
5. Greer turning back immediately AFTER the second shot and seeing JBC falling back onto his wife. That does not begin until z278.

It is also now corroborated by secret service interviews as recounted by Gerald Blaine in his book The Kennedy Detail who reported that the second shot occurred as Clint Hill stepped off the runningboard and ran to the President's car.