The First Shot

[Jerry Organ]

Jerry Organ thinks these witnesses heard it all wrong, including about another 40+ who heard the same thing: the last two shots close together. 

Dirty lawyer up to his tricks. Well I think the witnesses most certainly got RIGHT their personal subjective recreation of the shot span spacing. Others spoke of even spacing and still others spoke of the first two shots being closer together. You obviously cling to the first group because they support your wacky pet theory.

To me it's not science, and I think for most the "shot spacing" concentration (if any concentration; why would they for Pete's sake?) didn't kick in until after they heard the second shot; the first shot being thought of as a backfire or firecracker. BTW, if so many said Kennedy was struck on the first shot, why do so many speak of a backfire and firecracker?

I don't know how all that evidence can be disregarded, but it must be disregarded in order for the first shot to have missed.  No matter how you look at it: a second shot at z223 and the third shot 5 seconds later at z313 does not begin to fit the last two shots being in rapid succession and closer together than 1-2.

We have to match a witness group's purely-subjective recreation? It's like the stuff the Trump people are taking to the judges to get a recount.

And with all the witnesses who described JFK reacting to the first shot it gets even more difficult to understand how the first shot could have missed.

Remember Nickerson and I looked into your first-shot-struck witnesses? Turned out many of them described Kennedy reacting to a slumping shot (Z220s), BUT the next shot they recalled was the head shot. You take honest God-fearing two-shot witnesses and make them into three-shot witnesses, by pretending they missed your Z271 second shot. That way the "slumping" shot becomes your Theory's "first shot".

The first shot DID NOT MISS.

You're turning into Trump, thinking he'll never concede. You' may not be far removed from the Donahue-Hickey Theory people who think the Bronson Film is too blurry and doesn't prove anything.

[Andrew Mason]

Dirty lawyer up to his tricks.

Ad hominems, Jerry?  Really?

Well I think the witnesses most certainly got RIGHT their personal subjective recreation of the shot span spacing. Others spoke of even spacing and still others spoke of the first two shots being closer together. You obviously cling to the first group because they support your wacky pet theory.

No. My "wacky pet theory" is that these witnesses heard what they all said they heard: A shot, a pause and two shots in rapid succession.  So many recall hearing the same pattern that it is difficult to understand how they could have such similar recollections and be so wrong (ie. thinking 5 seconds was rapid).  But it is not just the shot spacing.  It is the dozens of witnesses who said JFK reacted to the first shot and the consistent witness recollections as to the timing of the first shot and location of JFK when it sounded. It all fits together: 3 shots: First hits JFK. Second hits JBC as Clint Hill leaps from the running board. Third at z313.  It also provides a better explanation of Governor Connally's wounds. And it is perfectly consistent with Oswald firing all three shots.

To me it's not science, and I think for most the "shot spacing" concentration (if any concentration; why would they for Pete's sake?) didn't kick in until after they heard the second shot; the first shot being thought of as a backfire or firecracker. BTW, if so many said Kennedy was struck on the first shot, why do so many speak of a backfire and firecracker?

Several people, including Clint Hill and Gov. Connally recognized it as a rifle shot. Others did not maybe because they had not heard a rifle but had heard cherry bomb fire crackers and backfires.  Cherry bombs were a big thing in the early sixties and they were deafening.

We have to match a witness group's purely-subjective recreation?

I'd like you to tell Bob Jackson to his face that he did not hear what he has always maintained that he distinctly recalled hearing and that it was just his purely subjective recreation.

It's like the stuff the Trump people are taking to the judges to get a recount.

No. It is a conclusion based on evidence.  By maintaining that speculation should be preferred over evidence, you are the one behaving that way.

Remember Nickerson and I looked into your first-shot-struck witnesses? Turned out many of them described Kennedy reacting to a slumping shot (Z220s), BUT the next shot they recalled was the head shot. You take honest God-fearing two-shot witnesses and make them into three-shot witnesses, by pretending they missed your Z271 second shot. That way the "slumping" shot becomes your Theory's "first shot".

There are too many "three shot, last two close together" witnesses to believe that they could have mistaken a 5 second pause between the last two shots for two rapid shots.  But, as I say, it is not just that evidence. 

You're turning into Trump, thinking he'll never concede. You' may not be far removed from the Donahue-Hickey Theory people who think the Bronson Film is too blurry and doesn't prove anything.

Again, Jerry, you should not use ad hominem arguments.  It makes it look like you can't deal with the evidence.

[Jerry Organ]

Ad hominems, Jerry?  Really?

"It is what it is."  -- Michelle Obama

No. My "wacky pet theory" is that these witnesses heard what they all said they heard: A shot, a pause and two shots in rapid succession.  So many recall hearing the same pattern that it is difficult to understand how they could have such similar recollections and be so wrong (ie. thinking 5 seconds was rapid).

Sad, really, to see an armchair theorist struggle with giving up something he really believed in. And then there's Donald Trump.

So, you're down to trolling demographics. If particular groups of eyewitnesses in isolation got things "right" then the limousine literally stopped during the shooting and a large gaping exit wound was observed at the back of the president's head at Parkland.

But it is not just the shot spacing.  It is the dozens of witnesses who said JFK reacted to the first shot and the consistent witness recollections as to the timing of the first shot and location of JFK when it sounded.

Cherry-picks from a once principled legal eagle, who's gone all Mark Lane. I just checked the TV listings: no "Mason Theory" documentaries scheduled. Why do you suppose that?

It all fits together: 3 shots: First hits JFK. Second hits JBC as Clint Hill leaps from the running board. Third at z313.  It also provides a better explanation of Governor Connally's wounds. And it is perfectly consistent with Oswald firing all three shots.

Of course it "fits together"... in the windmills of your mind.

Several people, including Clint Hill and Gov. Connally recognized it as a rifle shot. Others did not maybe because they had not heard a rifle but had heard cherry bomb fire crackers and backfires.  Cherry bombs were a big thing in the early sixties and they were deafening.

I'd like you to tell Bob Jackson to his face that he did not hear what he has always maintained that he distinctly recalled hearing and that it was just his purely subjective recreation.

Hughes film sequence (ends approx. Z185) (Amination by Robin Unger)

Fine. Then you likewise accept that Bob Jackson (seated left rear of car traveling in front of last car to enter the scene) describes the first shot occurred as he was looking back and laughing at a colleague having fumbled a toss. The toss was made long ago and they've had some time to laugh, and the film ends nowhere near Z200.

No. It is a conclusion based on evidence.  By maintaining that speculation should be preferred over evidence, you are the one behaving that way.

I'm not using the entirely-subjective mental reactions of eyewitnesses, a group Law Schools tell their students is basically unreliable. Yes, I have to use testimony to demonstrate how you're spinning what they said. But any theory I have relies primarily on the photographic record, forensics, and lately my 3D skills such as they are.

There are too many "three shot, last two close together" witnesses to believe that they could have mistaken a 5 second pause between the last two shots for two rapid shots.  But, as I say, it is not just that evidence. 

Again, Jerry, you should not use ad hominem arguments.  It makes it look like you can't deal with the evidence.

In your case, you making that complaint tells us you have nothing concrete to say. Have you figured out how Kinney and Hickey can see through a human skull to the hair flutter in the Z270s? Have you been able to show convincingly a 3D study that shows Connally seated in the Z200s as your Theory proposes?

[Charles Collins]

There is almost always going to be conflicting witness accounts to most any event that has multiple witnesses. And when we have as many witnesses as we do in Dealey Plaza during the shooting, there are going to be a lot of conflicting accounts. Cherry-picking the witness accounts appears to be a popular way to argue various points. However, confirmation bias is difficult to avoid when choosing the witness accounts one wishes to use.

The timing of the two shots that hit JFK can be pretty closely determined by a viewing of the Zapruder film. The timing of remaining shot has always been elusive. I have tried to find visual evidence for this shot and believe it to be around the beginning of the Zapruder film segment that includes the shooting (Z133). For some details of the visual evidence see the thread "Why the First Shot Missed": https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2090.msg56228/topicseen.html#msg56228. And the thread "Victoria Adams' view from the fourth floor window: https://www.jfkassassinationforum.com/index.php/topic,2647.0.html.

Once some physical (visual) evidence supporting a theory is found, then one can attempt to prove or disprove this theory. Physical evidence should outweigh witness accounts due to the inherent unreliability of witness accounts. And some witness accounts are less ambiguous than others. Some examples are Victoria Adams' description which includes two stationary objects we can line up with the position of JFK at the time of when Victoria said she heard the first shot. Other examples are Howard Brennan's description in his 11/22/63 affidavit, and Bob Jackson's description.

I found another one while reading Bob Baskin's notes dated July 23, 1964. These were published in the book "The Reporters' Notes" by The Dallas Morning News. Here is an excerpt:

"As we turned off Main Street onto Houston for the last leg of the motorcade route to the Trade Mart at almost 12:30 p.m. We saw the President's car make the turn after that in front of the Texas School Book Depository building, gaining a bit of speed. The press car was halfway down the block before the left turn when the first shot rang out."

Here is a diagram of the position of the vehicles at Z133:



Bob Baskin and the other National Press representatives were in the vehicle marked "7" in this diagram. It is halfway down the block.

[Jerry Organ]

I found another one while reading Bob Baskin's notes dated July 23, 1964. These were published in the book "The Reporters' Notes" by The Dallas Morning News. Here is an excerpt:

"As we turned off Main Street onto Houston for the last leg of the motorcade route to the Trade Mart at almost 12:30 p.m. We saw the President's car make the turn after that in front of the Texas School Book Depository building, gaining a bit of speed. The press car was halfway down the block before the left turn when the first shot rang out."

Here is a diagram of the position of the vehicles at Z133:



Bob Baskin and the other National Press representatives were in the vehicle marked "7" in this diagram. It is halfway down the block.

Thank you for sharing something in an obscure book I'll probably never come across or my library would have. It's good to have a fresh piece of the puzzle. However, for example, the people in Car No.4 (Vice-Presidential car) suggest the first shot occurred later:

• Jacks (driver): "My car had just straightened up from making the left turn..."
• Youngblood (SS agent): "As we were beginning to go down this incline ..."
• LBJ" "After we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street..."
• Lady Bird: "We were rounding a curve, going down a hill..."

Not sure where that gets us, but the Z150s-160s would place Baskin about the south edge of the Dallas County Records Bldg. I think the Z200s would be getting the press car too close to the end of the block.



Where Dale K. Myers places the Press Pool Car at Z150 (left inset).

Others in the press car:

Malcolm Kilduff (WH Assistant Press Secretary): "There was a longer
     pause between the first and the second than there was between
     the second and the third." (Andrew won't like that)

     Kilduff said he was near enough to read the sign over the doorway
     of the TSBD building and ask: "Would you mind telling me what in
     the name of heaven the Texas School Book Repository is? I never
     heard of a school book 'repository.'"

Bob Clark: "Right as we turned in front of the Texas School Book
     Depository I heard three extremely loud and clear shots."
     (He's taking about where they were during all the shots.)

Jack Bell: "There was a loud bang as though a giant firecracker
     had exploded in the cavern between the tall buildings we were
     just leaving behind us." (If Bell meant the gap between the
     Records and Criminal Courts Bldgs then Car No. 7 would
     have to be further along than Z133)

[Charles Collins]

Thank you for sharing something in an obscure book I'll probably never come across or my library would have. It's good to have a fresh piece of the puzzle. However, for example, the people in Car No.4 (Vice-Presidential car) suggest the first shot occurred later:

• Jacks (driver): "My car had just straightened up from making the left turn..."
• Youngblood (SS agent): "As we were beginning to go down this incline ..."
• LBJ" "After we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street..."
• Lady Bird: "We were rounding a curve, going down a hill..."

Not sure where that gets us, but the Z150s-160s would place Baskin about halfway along the Dallas County Records Bldg. Not mathematically-halfway relative to the whole block, but sort of consistent with his recollection of that day. I think the Z200s would be getting the press car too close to the end of the block.

Others in the press car:

Malcolm Kilduff (WH Assistant Press Secretary): "There was a longer
     pause between the first and the second than there was between
     the second and the third." (Andrew won't like that)

     Kilduff said he was near enough to read the sign over the doorway
     of the TSBD building and ask: "Would you mind telling me what in
     the name of heaven the Texas School Book Repository is? I never
     heard of a school book 'repository.'"

Bob Clark: "Right as we turned in front of the Texas School Book
     Depository I heard three extremely loud and clear shots."
     (He's taking about where they were during all the shots.)

Jack Bell: "There was a loud bang as though a giant firecracker
     had exploded in the cavern between the tall buildings we were
     just leaving behind us." (If Bell meant the gap between the
     Records and Criminal Courts Bldgs then Car No. 7 would
     have to be further along than Z133)

It is pointless to try to formulate an exact time of the shot in question based solely on all of the witness accounts because they are all different and conflicting and most are vague in one or more aspects (Bob Baskin’s account included). They can’t all be correct, and even if only one is chosen to be correct, it can often be interpreted differently in an attempt to support two different theories.

The visual evidence that points to an early missed shot is less disputable and helps to support the witness accounts that agree with it.

I think that Jack Bell was referring to the Main Street corridor surrounded by the tall buildings. They had just left it.

[John Tonkovich]

It is pointless to try to formulate an exact time of the shot in question based solely on all of the witness accounts because they are all different and conflicting and most are vague in one or more aspects (Bob Baskin’s account included). They can’t all be correct, and even if only one is chosen to be correct, it can often be interpreted differently in an attempt to support two different theories.

The visual evidence that points to an early missed shot is less disputable and helps to support the witness accounts that agree with it.

I think that Jack Bell was referring to the Main Street corridor surrounded by the tall buildings. They had just left it.

What is this "visual evidence" of a missed shot?
A missed first shot, no less?

[Andrew Mason]

Thank you for sharing something in an obscure book I'll probably never come across or my library would have. It's good to have a fresh piece of the puzzle. However, for example, the people in Car No.4 (Vice-Presidential car) suggest the first shot occurred later:

• Jacks (driver): "My car had just straightened up from making the left turn..."
• Youngblood (SS agent): "As we were beginning to go down this incline ..."
• LBJ" "After we had proceeded a short way down Elm Street..."
• Lady Bird: "We were rounding a curve, going down a hill..."

Not sure where that gets us, but the Z150s-160s would place Baskin about the south edge of the Dallas County Records Bldg. I think the Z200s would be getting the press car too close to the end of the block.

One does not have to guess. The first press car was the car immediately behind the Cabell car. The Cabell car was immediately behind the VP Security car.  The VP Security car was immediately behind the VP car.  We can see that the VP car at z160 is pointing north of a line from Zapruder to the corner so it is about half way into the turn.  The Cabell car has yet to enter the intersection.  So the first press car is still about 2 car lengths from entering the intersection.  That is about 30 feet. Moving at about 1 foot per frame, maybe a bit slower going through the intersection, that would put the first press car just entering the intersection at z190 which correlates to the first shot.  That fits Betzner, Willis and about 20 others including the occupants of the cars ahead of the press car.

Others in the press car:

Malcolm Kilduff (WH Assistant Press Secretary): "There was a longer
     pause between the first and the second than there was between
     the second and the third." (Andrew won't like that)

Why would you say that!?  That is what I have been saying the shot pattern was!

You left out the best part.  Kilduff continued:
HARTIGAN: So you're of the school of thought that you heard three shots.
KILDUFF: Oh, I know I heard three shots. Nobody's going to tell me I didn't hear three shots. I mean I know that there was a long pause because there was that little interchange of conversation between Merriman Smith and me between the first and the second shot. Then the third shot got off very quickly.

What is somewhat remarkable is that Kilduff did not give that statement to the WC or the FBI or the Dallas Sheriff.  He gave it in 1976 in an interview as part of an oral history project.  Those last two shots being closer together remained in his memory for 13 years.  He was in the same car as Jackson [correction: Jackson was in the second press car two cars behind Kilduff] and Jackson did give a statement on 22Nov63 to the FBI and Jackson also mentioned the last two shots being in rapid succession. He still maintains that the last two were closer together and he is now 86 years old.   I am pretty sure that Kilduff would not agree that 5 seconds between the last two shots = third shot getting off very quickly.