The First Shot

[Andrew Mason]

Am I wrong to believe the limo was obscured by the oak tree around z160?

The car was never fully obscured by the tree and neither was the President. Oswald would have been able to track him easily while the car passed under the branches.  The Secret Service did a re-enactment in early December 1963 and took a film of a stand-in car and occupants. You can see that the car is about to pass under the first tree branches when JFK was just past the west retaining wall:

That appears to be about where the President was when Croft took his z163 photo, which he said was enough time before the first shot that he was able to wind his camera and take another at the moment of the first shot (unfortunately that frame did not turn out).

JFK was a possible target from the SN at and after this point:

when JFK was opposite the lamppost and about 10 feet from the Thornton Freeway sign.  That corresponds to Zapruder frame 190 by my calculation.

In doing their reenactment in May 1964 the FBI did not take into account how the tree looked from the SN on November 22/63. The SS film shows that.  For some reason which is not explained in the WC material, the FBI did not realize that JFK was quite visible after z190.

[Charles Collins]

If the 6th floor gunman (or rifle demonstrator?)  at TSBD SE window was hiding out of LOS until after JFK limo has fully turned on ELM st and has passed by the window and past the traffic light, then IMO there is only approx about 3 to 4 sec until limo is at the Z160 location on Elm St.

IMO it’s therefore more probable if there was a shot fired as early as Z160  by a lone shooter from the TSBD SN window that it was an accidental unaimed shot DURING his effort to get himself onto crouched kneeling firing position.

Seated on the box on the floor and sitting up straight, he was out of the line of sight. Just leaning his upper torso forward (while staying seated) he was in a good position to aim and fire as the limo traveled away from him down Elm Street. The seated position is the most stable one and doesn’t require any awkward, time consuming movements to get into a kneeling position. Therefore I believe that he stayed seated on the box for the shooting.

I don’t believe that he would have had an opportunity to practice aiming at moving vehicles in the kill zone with the actual rifle without risking being seen aiming the rifle and possibly bringing unwanted attention to himself. But it is reasonable to believe that he could have mentally practiced doing this. He could have kept the rifle at his side and low enough that it could not be seen from the viewpoint of the bystanders outside and below until the limo traveled into his selected kill zone.

When the time came to pick up the actual rifle and aim, I believe that it was most likely the first time he did this with the rifle actually in hand. The pipe (appears to me to be an electrical conduit) closest to the window would have been very close to his left elbow position if he was seated and aiming down Elm Street. However, he most likely had not realized this due to a lack of actual practice with the rifle. It is possible that his left elbow could have collided with the conduit while he was bringing the rifle up into position and starting to aim. If this happened, the elbow collision might have caused an inadvertent shot to be fired before he had fully aimed the rifle.

A somewhat similar scenario is possible if he was aiming and tracking the limo as it passed right below the window. However, in this case the top box in the stack below the window would have been the item in the way of the rifle barrel. Some people believe that they see some movement in the window in the Hughes film. So I don’t rule this possibility out.

However, I believe the most likely theory to be the first one in which the conduit is the cause. One reason for this preference is the bullet marks on the manhole cover on the south side of Elm Street and the curb near the position of Tague. And Tague’s injury of course.

Then again, Max Holland’s demonstration regarding the spent shells distribution is interesting and coincides with the shot being made while the limo is below the traffic signal (from the sniper’s nest viewpoint). If this is the reason for the spent shells distribution pattern, then interference from the top box could be the reason the shot misssed (in lieu of it hitting the traffic signal).

[Dan O'meara]

The car was never fully obscured by the tree and neither was the President. Oswald would have been able to track him easily while the car passed under the branches.  The Secret Service did a re-enactment in early December 1963 and took a film of a stand-in car and occupants. You can see that the car is about to pass under the first tree branches when JFK was just past the west retaining wall:

That appears to be about where the President was when Croft took his z163 photo, which he said was enough time before the first shot that he was able to wind his camera and take another at the moment of the first shot (unfortunately that frame did not turn out).

JFK was a possible target from the SN at and after this point:

when JFK was opposite the lamppost and about 10 feet from the Thornton Freeway sign.  That corresponds to Zapruder frame 190 by my calculation.

In doing their reenactment in May 1964 the FBI did not take into account how the tree looked from the SN on November 22/63. The SS film shows that.  For some reason which is not explained in the WC material, the FBI did not realize that JFK was quite visible after z190.

Thanks Andrew

[John Tonkovich]

The first shot landed base first in the back - not neck - and did not penetrate very deeply.
Why would a bullet hit base first?
Would a bullet "tumble" if it hit a tree branch?
Points to ponder.

[Andrew Mason]

Did you really think people were going to be fooled by your fuzzy soft-focus screen grab? Come on. The figures on the side of the road are blobs.

And why did you want people to believe that it was easy to track through the foliage and that JFK came out in the clear at Z190? A search for the truth. Hmmm, nope. You want things to fit your Theory's requirement for a shot fired about Z200-ish.

Look at page 101 of the Warren Report.


You can't see hardly any features of the car in the approaching foliage.

I don't have any difficulty seeing the car and occupants passing under the tree.  All Oswald had to do was aim down the street and shoot when JFK came into view. My point is that JFK is clear well before z207.

Croft said no such thing. An FBI AirTel characterized the exposure that didn't turn out as "taken simultaneously with the shot which killed the President."

Croft was interviewed not long after:

    "Croft told the Powell Tribune for a story published Nov. 26, 1963,
     that he was 30 feet from JFK’s limousine when the shots rang out
     at around 12:30 p.m. Central Time."

That also doesn't say he was taking a photo that corresponded with a first shot.

Trask interviewed Croft and he said his photo (taken at z163) was taken before the first shot.  He also said he wound his camera and pressed the shutter at the time of the first shot.  I think we have gone over this before. Perhaps your memory is becoming as bad as your etiquette.   

Kennedy emerges from the foliage and into the clear about Z200.



No one could have tracked Kenndy through that foliage. You don't know know better than the FBI.

First of all, the FBI did their reenactment in May 1964 after the new spring foliage and branches had appeared.  The tree in November 1963 did not look like that, as we see in the Secret Service film from early December 1963.

I notice that you just say he appeared clear of the tree at z200 but you don't provide any analysis to support that. The film you have used does not show the full street.  JFK was opposite the Thornton Freeway sign at z200.  You can see that he is well clear of the tree by that time in the frame I showed in my earlier post with the yellow lines.

[Dan O'meara]

I don't have any difficulty seeing the car and occupants passing under the tree.  All Oswald had to do was aim down the street and shoot when JFK came into view. My point is that JFK is clear well before z207.

I thought it was your contention the first shot was between z190 - z200. [reply#258]

[Andrew Mason]

I thought it was your contention the first shot was between z190 - z200. [reply#258]

That is correct.  Well before z207, which is when the FBI determined the earliest time that JFK was clear of the tree from the 6th floor sniper's nest. He was clear almost a second earlier judging by the Secret Service film.