Assassination 3D animation by Mark Tyler

[Gerry Down]

Has Dale Myers not done an animated reconstruction of the Tippit scene?

I dont think he has. All i've seen on his website are still 3D images.

[Mark Tyler]

I have just published version 2.1 of Motorcade 63 here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

As always thanks to those who have taken the time to share their thoughts and help me make the work better with each iteration.

The video only has a few minor changes, such as the dictabelt audio.  Having studied both channels I have concluded that the so called crosstalk is the most reliable sync point about a minute or so after the shots were fired.  The detail of this synchronization is in the handbook appendix D.3 where I have itemised the second by second events on both channels relative to the animation clock:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

Although the channels are clearly discontinuous at various early points, I think that in the animation around 12:30:00 both channels are recording continuously in real time from when Jesse Curry mentions approaching the triple underpass.  This is seemingly correct judging from the various timed announcements within those few minutes.

The big effort I put into this release was an exhaustive survey of 283 witnesses who gave information in statements or interviews regarding the shots that were fired.  The full survey data is publicly available here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_dpws.csv

A full visualisation of this data is available in the handbook in appendix F (page 120).  I have also taken this opportunity to reorganise the handbook so all of the analysis of theories is done relative to the survey results.

In some areas the witnesses are collectively fairly certain about what happened in Dealey Plaza, but in other areas they are sharply divided.  For example 73% of witnesses heard three shots fired in total, and 75% of reliable witnesses are certain that just a single shot was fired around or before Z225-Z240 when the first unambiguous effects of gunfire are seen in the Zapruder film.  By contrast the witnesses are very split on these issues:

• 58% of reliable witnesses are certain that no more than one shot was fired around the time of Z313, whereas 32% are certain that a second shot was also fired around this time.
• 54% of reliable witnesses are certain that no shots were fired after Z313, whereas 38% are certain that at least one shot was fired after Z313.
• 59% of reliable witnesses thought that at least two shots were bunched together somewhere during the shooting, whereas 41% thought the shots were evenly spaced with no bunches.

In summary, the most reliable witnesses are evenly split regarding when the third shot was fired: either it was within a second or two of Z313; or it was fired 3-6 seconds after Z313.  If both sets of witnesses are correct then there were at least four shots fired that day.

Hopefully researchers will find this quantitative and qualitative work useful in evaluating the many theories in this case.

[Thomas Graves]

Not a valid vimeo URL
This is a pretty amazing piece of work. I found this over at the (un)Education Forum. I reached out to him and told him he should insert at least Lovelady and Frazier up on the steps of the building because of the *possibility* it may be Oswald up there. Some of the so-called "experts" over there (you know who you are...or maybe not LOL) are already overwhelming him with "48 FPS and not this many FPS." He's already like, "Let me make sure I understand you."

LOL

It's too bad he has the number, direction, and timing of the shots all screwed up.

--  MWT 

[Mark Tyler]

I've just published version 2.2 of Motorcade 63, the reference handbook, and the witness survey (which now lists over 400 witnesses):

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html
https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf
https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_dpws.csv

I added Virgie Baker to the animation as she gave evidence regarding the first shot hitting the road (corroborated by Royce Skelton).  The animation proves this could only have occurred during Z175-Z215 as the cars blocked her view of the bullet impact zone outside those two seconds (full details are in the handbook appendix E.5).  This matches the cluster of evidence that the first shot was fired near Z185, such as John Connally who heard a shot fired two seconds before he was hit around Z225.  This timing is corroborated by several witnesses such as Gloria Calvery, Karen Westbrook, Phil Willis, and A.J. Millican who were all very close to the Presidential limo when the first shot was fired.

After nearly two years of sitting on the fence regarding this case I have concluded that there were probably two gunman firing shots that day.  It's the only way to properly explain all of the evidence without leaving loose ends.  Especially notable are the pair of shots fired between Z185 and Z225 which could not have both been fired from the gun found in the TSBD in that short space of time.

If you try to shoehorn the evidence into a single gunman firing just three shots then too many corroborated witnesses statements have to be discarded.  Witnesses in this case do make mistakes but typically they are due to a lack of awareness (such as not hearing a shot due to being distracted) or errors of misinterpretation (like Jean Hill thinking she saw a white dog in the limo rather than white flowers).  By contrast, when so many witnesses independently corroborate each other with detailed statements given very soon after the assassination, I accept what they say as having some basis in fact.

If anyone spots errors or omissions feel free to let me know as I'm always happy to improve and fix things!

[Joe Elliott]

One thing that I notice is that this animation shows Officer McLain, across from Officer Baker, nowhere near the intersection of Houston and Elm, at the time of the first shot, as predicted by the acoustic experts. This animation is correct in this respect. This prediction by the acoustic experts has proven false. There is a big gap between the four motorcycles riding just behind the limousine and the next two motorcycles, Officer McLain and Baker, with location of alleged microphone right in the middle of this gap, a few feet before Elm Street.

[Mark Tyler]

Did Skelton mean viewer left or car's left (driver-side)?

The witness statements are generally unreliable and any well-meaning reconciliation usually leads to confirmation bias, no matter how immune we figure we are. The Zapruder film has just two bullet strikes in it: the head shot at Z312-313 and the double-wounding in the early-Z220s.

Maybe not an error, but I always see, starting with Thompson in 1967, Bower's reference to a "wall" taken to be the pergola's East Shelter.



Most of the car disappears from Bowers' view about the Z150s. There are then people between Bowers and the top area of the car until it goes behind the pergola. My model doesn't show the trees and spectators, and so seems more open-spaced. I only have a rough estimate of Bowers viewing position. Maybe Bowers meant the low wall extending from the shelter to the street.

Skelton gave several statements, but he said this to the FBI on December 17, 1963:

"Mr Skelton noticed that as an open limousine turned on Elm Street, it had moved approximately one hundred feet at which time he noticed dust spray up from the street in front of the car on the driver's side."

This is helpful as it corroborates the statement Virgie Baker gave later to the Warren Commission regarding the first shot timing, and location of the road where the bullet struck.

I completely agree with you Jerry, the Zapruder film only shows two obvious times of gunshots, 5 seconds apart.  Hunting down the exact moments of the other shot(s) is tricky, but without an audio recording we sadly have no choice but to parse the witness statements and try to make sense of the many contradictions.  As you say it's very easy to be led astray through misinterpreting a statement so I'm always grateful to hear an alternative point of view to help avoid this trap.

Lee Bowers is very helpful regarding the shots.  He gave a few interviews before his untimely death in 1966, with this quote from a Mark Lane interview:

"Directly in line - uh - there - of course is - uh - there leading toward the Triple Underpass there is a curved decorative wall - I guess you'd call it - it's not a solid wall but it is part of the - uh - park..."

Dale Myers helpfully mentions this in reference [114] here:

https://www.jfkfiles.com/jfk/html/badgeman_4.htm

By saying the wall is curved and not solid he is referring to the pergola which is curved and has holes in it.  Therefore my interpretation is that he failed to hear any shot or shots before Z250, after which the Presidential limo disappeared behind the pergola, and he then heard three shots fired.  Helpfully he said the final shot was around the time it re-emerged which seems to be around Z390-Z400 which helps pin the final shot several seconds after the head shot.

[Mark Tyler]

One thing that I notice is that this animation shows Officer McLain, across from Officer Baker, nowhere near the intersection of Houston and Elm, at the time of the first shot, as predicted by the acoustic experts. This animation is correct in this respect. This prediction by the acoustic experts has proven false. There is a big gap between the four motorcycles riding just behind the limousine and the next two motorcycles, Officer McLain and Baker, with location of alleged microphone right in the middle of this gap, a few feet before Elm Street.

Indeed Joe, the position of McLain contradicts the HSCA acoustics analysis.  The other important point which proves that the microphone wasn't in Dealey Plaza is that it failed to pick up any sirens blaring after the shots.  Many witnesses reported that a siren started very soon after the head shot which does not appear at all on the dictabelt audio.  The dictabelt is a red herring!