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Author Topic: The Magic Bullet  (Read 95337 times)

Offline Jerry Organ

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2018, 08:03:23 PM »
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No. I am not providing subjective impressions of the evidence. I am presenting it, just as it was given, so anyone can see that it is inconsistent with a first shot before z191.  You want to twist that evidence to say that it was all mistaken. 

For example:

    Betzner said he took his z186 photo before the first shot.


He said the shot was the first of two that he could associate with something he was doing; the other shot would seem to be the head shot. He also said he was looking down to wind his camera when he heard the first of the two shots he later recalled.

As Betzner goes out of the Zapruder film in Z207, he is still lowering his camera and is not looking down. This would seem to negate your ca.Z200 area for a first shot. However, it would better fit a proposed Z223 shot. A three-shot scenario would simply mean Betzner heard a third shot but had no reason to remember it, which in turn argues for an earlier shot (before the shot Betzner heard after taking his Z186 photo) that many witnesses dismissed as a backfire or firecracker.

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Croft said he took his z161 photo long enough before the first shot that he had time to roll his film and snap another (that did not turn out) before the first shot.


I don't believe we have Croft stating those things verbatim. They're characterized that way in a FBI AirTel, which is hearsay and possibly misconstrued. It could be his Z161 photo was taken simultaneously with one of the shots.


Croft Photo (Z162)
 
   Willis 05 Photo (Z202)
 
   Approximate size of
   Kennedy limousine
   relative to Willis photo,
   if Croft had taken a
   photo at Z313

Altgens (Z255, three seconds before Z313) includes area where Croft would
have to move to take a photo at Z313, if he wanted less obstruction
   

Croft stepping out in the street (for a better sight-line) or remaining where he was to take a photo in which the limousine was barely visible seems farfetched. I believe Kennedy himself is obstructed from Croft's view by Clint Hill by Z255, and would have been fully obstructed by the Queen Mary relative to Croft by the Z280s.

We do, however, have verbatim statements from Jackie and the Connallys (saying they turned their heads to their right in response to hearing the first shot; the Connallys are seen in the Zapruder film to first do so in the Z160s while Mrs. Kennedy does so beginning in the early Z170s), and Phil Willis, who testified:

   "Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and
     facing more to my side of the street."

   "When the first shot was fired, her head seemed
     to just snap in that direction ... when the first shot
     was fired, she turned to the right toward him"

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Hughes said he stopped filming before the first shot. He continues to film to about z187.


Hughes says he stopped filming about five seconds before the shots were heard. This doesn't work for your ca.Z200 "first shot" because he quits filming at Z185. My scenario that he might have not been that alarmed by a late-Z150 missed shot (and so didn't include its moment in time in his recollections) is in keeping with Hughes' claim that "Some of the people dropped to the ground at the first shot." From the photographic evidence (including the Dorman film), it would seem no one dropped to the ground until after the head shot.

Furthermore, if Hughes had stopped at Z185, about 2/3 second before your theory's first shot, then it's unlikely he would have characterized the lag as five seconds. A second shot at ca.Z223 is over two seconds from when he stopped filming, while the Z313 head shot (which Hughes alludes to with "first shot" and people dropping to the ground) is almost seven seconds from when he stopped filming.

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Occupants of the VP car said they had just completed the turn and were going downhill on Elm when the first shot occurred. It is still turning at z191.




By the Z160s, it had nearly completed 70? of the turn off from Houston. A 90? turn would be perpendicular to Houston. The animation stops at Z150 but we can picture the progression of the VP car to Z160.

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Occupants of the VP security car said they were parallel to the TSBD/still in the turn when the first shot sounded.


The occupants probably aren't looking dead-center through the windshield, but rather where the car is turning towards. This would place their heads parallel to the Depository in the Z150s.

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The car is still pointing somewhat toward the TSBD in z191.




You've got some remarkable visible to determine that from Z191.

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Mrs. Cabell, in the car immediately behind the VP security car was seated behind the driver of the car. She said the car was in its turn and she was turned to her right toward her husband seated in the front passenger seat when the first shot rang out. At that point she was facing the TSBD and just looked straight up and saw the gun.  Her car has not quite reached the intersection by z190.

You, on the other hand, want to take Willis' statement that is not only inconsistent with this evidence, but is inconsistent with his recollection that the shot was an instant before he exposed his z202 photo. 


What he said about his photo being instantaneous with the first shot is how he chose to characterize his 05 slide. By then he had labels on copies of that slide claiming the same thing, that were being sold commercially. When asked specifically about the first shot, Willis testified under oath:

   "Mrs. Kennedy was likewise smiling and
     facing more to my side of the street."

   "When the first shot was fired, her head seemed
     to just snap in that direction ... when the first shot
     was fired, she turned to the right toward him"

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You allege that what these witnesses said was not what they meant by applying your subjective assessment of their evidence.  And to deal with Willis, you suggest that he was lying in order to sell pictures!

I will leave it to others to assess who is promoting a wacky theory.


Right. He was selling sets of slides with the claim that his 05 slide was taken at the exact moment of the first shot. Under oath though, he pinpoints Mrs. Kennedy's head turn as the moment of the first shot, and claims (incorrectly) his slide corresponds with a Zapruder frame in which "he has already reached for his throat at that time" which means he introducing some reaction time, an admission of sorts that there was some time between his hearing the first shot and his taking his slide..

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You may be right.  But I see no discernible lean forward prior from z150 to z193.  He does raise his right hand to wave, however. It would be odd for someone describing his action during this period as leaning forward but not turning right and raising his right hand to wave.


Willis couldn't see Kennedy's right hand or see if he was smiling. He was closer to Mrs. Kennedy and therefore witnessed her head turn in reaction, he thought, to the first shot. The head nod by Kennedy in the Z170s as seen from behind (as Willis saw it) could suggest to Willis what he termed "more or less slumped forward".

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That is quite right. We cannot see him in the zfilm after z207.  But his right hand moved from holding the handhold in z198 to down by his right side in 8 frames (less than half a second). The next time we see him is in z255 (Altgens). 

You surely will admit that he cannot be turned around as he was by z255 with his right hand on the right handhold.  So he could not have begun a reaction before z199.


That's quite a reaction. 1/4-to-1/2 second to decide to turn around and forget about how the President was.

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The question then is whether he delayed beginning his turn after the first shot by 3 seconds, as you are suggesting.  To conclude that he did, you must reject his evidence (CE1024 18 H 749):

    I heard what appeared to be fire-crackers going off from my position. I immediately turned to my right rear trying to locate the source but was not able to determine the exact location.

I, on the other hand, see no reason to reject his evidence because it fits with the rest of the witnesses that the first shot was after z191 and before z202.


I would suggest some people use the term "immediately" in different ways. Ready said the first shot occurred as:

    "we began the approach to the Thornton Freeway"
    "The shooting occurred as we were approaching the
     Thornton Freeway [sign]"


Betzner (Z186)
 
Willis 05 (Z202)

Which photo better represents Ready "approaching" the Thornton sign? I would think that the Z150s/Z160s would even more so represent to Ready the beginning of the approach to the Thornton sign.

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Your opinion of what you think a good agent would do is not evidence of what this agent did. Ready did not say he checked to see if the President was ok.  He said he thought he heard firecrackers and that he immediately turned to his right rear to locate the source of the sound.  It may be that he did not think a firecracker would be a danger to the President.


Not a danger? Even more reason to take his time to fully turn around. No reason though why he can't begin to turn his head rightward immediately.

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Ok.  It may not be completely clear from his evidence that he turned immediately after the first shot.  But it would be odd to say that he immediately acted if he waited 3 seconds after the first firecracker sound. 


Ready reacts immediately with the turning of his head, within the same brief time span as the Connallys and Mrs. Kennedy, all of whom said the first shot caused them to turn their heads rightward. Phil Willis witnessed Mrs. Kennedy turn her head from his side of the street to the opposite, testifying that he thought it was caused by her reacting to the first shot. She does this beginning in the early-Z170s.

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This is particularly odd since Altgens (as well as another 40+ shot pattern witnesses) said that when his z255 photo was taken there had been only one shot (7 H 520):

    Mr. LIEBELER. You are quite sure in your mind, however, that there were no shots, a noise that sounded like shots, prior to the time at which you took the picture that has been marked Commission Exhibit No. 203; is that correct?
    Mr. ALTGENS. No, sir ; I did not-you see-all of these shots sounded the same. If you heard one you would recognize the other shots and these were all the same. It was a pop that I don?t believe I could identify it any other way than as a firecracker and this particular picture was made at the time the first firecracker noise was heard by me.
    Mr. LIEBELER. Now, you don?t think that there could have been any other shots fired prior to that time that you wouldn?t have heard, you were standing right there and you would have heard them, would you not?
    Mr. ALTGENS. I?m sure I would have-yes, sir.


    "I mean the first shot, and being fireworks--who counts fireworks
     explosions? I wasn't keeping track of the number of pops that took
      place, but I could vouch for No. 1, and I can vouch for the last shot,
     but I cannot tell you how many shots were in between."

Altgens told Trask in 1985:

    "My first instinct was 'well, they?re shooting firecrackers up there,'
     or some kind of celebration on behalf of the President. And then
     I hear it again as the car comes on down. No one has the foggiest
     idea that something was taking place."

Seems he heard an unusual noise before the car came down to where he took his photo at Z255.

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She is turned left up to z168 and she begins to turn to her right.  She continues turning and faces forward by z178 and by she is turned to her far right by z190, and appears to be looking in the same direction as  Gov. Connally and JFK, which, oddly enough, appears to be in the direction of Mary Woodward and her cheering friends.


Except how can Woodward see Jackie's face and her reaction, if the President is blocking the view by then? Also Jackie is not waving.

And when does she see the Kennedys look around as if bewildered after the first shot if it's not when Mrs. Kennedy turns her head in the Z170s? Woodward probably could see some of Jackie's pillbox hat. The President turns his head rightward in the late-Z150s-to-early Z160s. That's about the only time we know for sure the Kennedys looked around before they disappeared behind the sign.

I figure it's doubtful they moved their heads while behind the sign because their head orientation seems to be same between Z207 and Z225 (the first post-sign when JFK's head comes fully into view). Compare Jackie's hat and the President's hairline; they seem unchanged.


Kennedy's eyes blocked by part of his right hand
 
Only the right hand being lowered naturally from a wave has changed

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I suppose the way anyone would know when you shout at someone and they immediately turn in your direction look at you and smile and wave.  Why do you think she would not be able to tell they were acknowledging her and her friends?


I think she assumed that. But she has no way of actually knowing.

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So, what point on the north side of Elm do you put JFK opposite in the frame I provided? How far ahead of the lamp post is he and how far in front of the Thornton sign is he?The film has good contrast. It is movie film. The point is that one can see Kennedy the entire time through the thin foliage of the oak tree. Oswald also had a scope.  Even I could track him through the scope.  Why do you think it would be difficult to track JFK as he passed under those outer leaves?


You can fuzz out fine details if you reduce the contrast enough.



But you're left with a blurry indistinct target blob.

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Yeah. It is really interesting how all the evidence says that the first shot did not miss, was after z191, and the second shot was close to the third.  I just "ferret" it out and present it. No need to editorialize and tweak it the way you are doing.


You must have tweaked Woodward's comment that the first shot was a miss. And that Kennedy first slumped on the second shot.

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I am disappointed with you, Jerry.  You are using the Trump approach: "If I don't agree with the evidence, I try an ad hominem approach to attack those gathering and presenting the evidence".


Guess you've forgotten that I said you have a brilliant mind (for other things) and that your theory is not as bad as others.

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You have read my posts and you know I have ALWAYS maintained that Oswald fired all the shots and I have never, ever, supported, suggested or given any credence whatsoever to a conspiracy theory.

My point about the SBT being in utter conflict with the rest of the evidence is that if one actually examines the evidence it does NOT support a conclusion that there was more than one shooter.  The shot spacing recalled by the vast majority of witnesses is consistent with Oswald firing the last two shots as the car was beginning to get out of range, the last coming 2.3 seconds after the second.

Really. Eyewitness assessment by consensus. The Parkland witnesses mostly described a head wound further back than the Zapruder film and autopsy photos show. Many witnesses (ask Palamara) said the limousine stopped after the fatal shot.

I suppose you're now going to suggest that I'm claiming most of the shot-spacing witnesses had a mass hallucination?
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 09:59:58 PM by Jerry Organ »

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #48 on: March 21, 2018, 08:03:23 PM »


Offline Gary Craig

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #49 on: March 22, 2018, 02:19:46 PM »

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2018, 04:56:59 PM »
Re: Betzner, Croft, Willis, Hughes....
Thank-you for reinforcing my point that in order to reconcile the early first missed shot fantasy you have to show that their evidence cannot be taken at face value.  You make the point very well that one needs to provide detailed subjective interpretations of why they must have erred (rather than evidence) to show how their simple observations could all have been wrong in the same way.

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That's quite a reaction. 1/4-to-1/2 second to decline to turn around and forget about how the President was.

I would suggest some people use the term "immediately" in different ways. Ready said the first shot occurred as:

    "we began the approach to the Thornton Freeway"
    "The shooting occurred as we were approaching the
     Thornton Freeway [sign]"


Which photo better represents Ready "approaching" the Thornton sign? I would think that the Z150s/Z160s would even more so represent to Ready the beginning of the approach to the Thornton sign.
Jerry, he said he turned around to look behind him "immediately" after the first shot.  Do you really think 3 seconds (z151-z199) before even beginning the turn could be considered "immediately" by anyone? 

The issue is not what photo better represents Ready "approaching" the Thornton sign.  He was approaching the Thornton Freeway sign up to the time he passed it, which would have been about z225 as he was about 25-30 feet behind JFK and JFK passed it about z200. There is no way to tell from just that statement how far in front of it he was. But he was definitely in front of it and moving toward it at z195.

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Not a danger? Even more reason ....
Altgens....
Again, thanks for demonstrating that one cannot take Ready's or Altgens' evidence as they gave it if you want to stick to your early missed first shot fantasy (with two shots well before the midpoint between first and last).
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Except how can Woodward see Jackie's face and her reaction, if the President is blocking the view by then? Also Jackie is not waving.
There you go again trying to second guess a witness' observation and say the witness did not observe what they said they observed.  Woodward said:
 
    (Dallas Morning News, Nov 24, 1963): The President was looking straight ahead and we were afraid we were afraid we would not get to see his face. But we started clapping and cheering and both he and Mrs. Kennedy turned, and smiled and waved, directly at us, it seemed. ....

    As it turned out, we were almost certainly the last faces he noticed in the crowd.

    After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right.

    (24 H 520): She stated she was watching President and Mrs. KENNEDY closely and all of her group cheered loudly as they went by. Just as President and Mrs. Kennedy went by, they turned and waved at them.

The fact is that one can only see Jackie's head in the zfilm so we cannot say that she did not wave.  Woodward said she waved. You were not there. She was.

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And when does she see the Kennedys look around as if bewildered after the first shot if it's not when Mrs. Kennedy turns her head in the Z170s? Woodward probably could see some of Jackie's pillbox hat. The President turns his head rightward in the late-Z150s-to-early Z160s. That's about the only time we know for sure the Kennedys looked around before they disappeared behind the sign.
Again, you are changing evidence.  First of all, Woodward said the first shot occurred AFTER the President acknowledged their cheers.

    "After acknowledging our cheers, he faced forward again and suddenly there was a horrible, ear-shattering noise coming from behind us and a little to the right. "

Second, if that turn of JFK from looking to his left at z154 to looking forward and slightly right at z161 as the turn acknowledging Mary Woodward, then you have to conclude that she was wrong that JFK waved and she was wrong that Jackie even turned toward them let alone smiled and waved and acknowledged them. The JFK wave does not begin until z173 and Jackie does not being to turn until z172. Their actions post-z172 are the only actions that fit what Woodward described.

As far as the President and Jackie looking around after the first shot, it appears that even she was not sure about events post-first-shot:

    "Things are a little hazy from this point, but I don't believe anyone was hit by the first bullet.  The President and Mrs. Kennedy turned and looked around, as if they too didn't believe the noise was really coming from a gun."

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Really. Eyewitness assessment by consensus. The Parkland witnesses mostly described a head wound further back than the Zapruder film and autopsy photos show. Many witnesses (ask Palamara) said the limousine stopped after the fatal shot.
There was blood everywhere on JFK's head and Jackie had tried to put his skull back together.  I am not sure that anyone other than those who closely treated JFK's head wound could give an accurate observation of its location.  On the other hand, the witnesses who could see what JFK did in response to the first shot or hear the relative shot spacings, were able to make those observations without difficulty.  As far as "consensus" is concerned, it depends on how you define consensus.  It is not a simple majority. Significant proportions of witnesses giving conflicting accounts indicates confusion or inability to observe accurately.  But if there are statistically significant numbers of witnesses who agree on a simple fact observations and only a smattering who disagree, one cannot ignore that evidence.

Here we have 20+ witnesses who observed JFK react to the first shot as if hit by it and 40+ witnesses who observed a shot pattern that necessarily MEANS he was hit by the first shot, and 20 or so witnesses who put the first shot at a time/location that means there could not have been a missed first shot before JFK began reacting, then we can draw a reliable conclusion that JFK was hit by the first shot.

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I suppose you're now going to suggest that I'm claiming most of the shot-spacing witnesses had a mass hallucination?
No. You are going to change their evidence so that none of them actually heard the 1.......2...3 shot spacing that they said they heard.

JFK Assassination Forum

Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #50 on: March 23, 2018, 04:56:59 PM »


Online John Iacoletti

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #51 on: March 23, 2018, 05:45:46 PM »
Thank-you for reinforcing my point that in order to reconcile the early first missed shot fantasy you have to show that their evidence cannot be taken at face value.  You make the point very well that one needs to provide detailed subjective interpretations of why they must have erred (rather than evidence) to show how their simple observations could all have been wrong in the same way.

That's the fatal flaw in most LN arguments.  When there is contradictory evidence, it's always reconciled as "the evidence that I don't like must have been the product of a mistake or error".

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2018, 09:23:44 PM »
That's the fatal flaw in most LN arguments.  When there is contradictory evidence, it's always reconciled as "the evidence that I don't like must have been the product of a mistake or error".
I will grant you that it is the fatal flaw in most SBT arguments.  The evidence that Oswald assassinated JFK really has no contradictory evidence, just a lot of arguments that the evidence that exists could be wrong.

For example, Buell Frazier said that Oswald took a paper wrapped package to work on Nov 22/63 that Oswald told him contained curtain rods. 

CTers make a big issue about the statements of Frazier regarding the length of the package, its exact colour, and how Oswald carried it, even though by his own admission, Frazier said that he did not pay much attention to it or how Oswald carried it.  CTers seize on this evidence as if it were ironclad proof that Oswald could not have taken the gun to work.

But the critical part of Frazier's evidence is that it puts Oswald carrying a paper wrapped longish package and that Oswald lied about its contents. Frazier expressed no uncertainty about what Oswald said or that he carried a package that was consistent with what he said it contained.  The disassembled rifle fit entirely into the package recovered in the SN (CE364) and it had Oswald's palmprint on it as well as fibres matching the blanket found the the Paine's garage that Marina said was used to wrap the rifle. No paper package other than CE364 was found. No curtain rods were found.  Oswald did not carry curtain rods or a paper package out of the TSBD. Yet all of this evidence is dismissed by CTers as unreliable.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2018, 09:27:50 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #52 on: March 23, 2018, 09:23:44 PM »


Online John Iacoletti

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2018, 10:01:55 PM »
The evidence that Oswald assassinated JFK really has no contradictory evidence

Or really any supporting evidence for that matter...


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For example, Buell Frazier said that Oswald took a paper wrapped package to work on Nov 22/63 that Oswald told him contained curtain rods. 

CTers make a big issue about the statements of Frazier regarding the length of the package, its exact colour, and how Oswald carried it, even though by his own admission, Frazier said that he did not pay much attention to it or how Oswald carried it.  CTers seize on this evidence as if it were ironclad proof that Oswald could not have taken the gun to work.

LNers assume that this bag was used to carry a rifle, even though there is no evidence to support that whatsoever.

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But the critical part of Frazier's evidence is that it puts Oswald carrying a paper wrapped longish package and that Oswald lied about its contents.

That doesn't follow.  We don't know what the bag was or what it contained.

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Frazier expressed no uncertainty about what Oswald said or that he carried a package that was consistent with what he said it contained.  The disassembled rifle fit entirely into the package recovered in the SN (CE364) [sic]

Yes, but there is no evidence that CE 142 was the bag that Frazier and Randle saw.  It fact they explicitly said it was not.

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and it had Oswald's palmprint on it as well as fibres matching the blanket found the the Paine's garage that Marina said was used to wrap the rifle.

The fibers could not be matched to any specific blanket.  And Marina only saw a part of a wooden stock that she took to be a rifle in the blanket.  So it certainly doesn't follow that any particular rifle was in that bag.

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No paper package other than CE364 [sic] was found.

Not you too.  There's no evidence that any other packages were ever looked for.

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No curtain rods were found.

Curtain rods were found in the Paines' garage.

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  Oswald did not carry curtain rods or a paper package out of the TSBD.

How could you possibly know that?

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Yet all of this evidence is dismissed by CTers as unreliable.

No, it's the conclusions that you make based upon this evidence that is unreliable.  It contains a whole lot of speculation and assumptions.

Online Andrew Mason

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #54 on: March 24, 2018, 03:39:31 PM »

That doesn't follow.  We don't know what the bag was or what it contained.
The point is that he carried a longish package and lied about its contents. Oswald later dnied he told Frazier he carried anything other than his lunch. That is evidence tending to show that he was hiding something. It is a piece of evidence that contributes to the overall body of evidence that would lead 12 normal people to conclude that Oswald assassinatdd JFK.

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Yes, but there is no evidence that CE 142 was the bag that Frazier and Randle saw.  It fact they explicitly said it was not.
CE142 was altered by the fingerprint process. They made a replica CE364 and that was shown to Frazier.


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No, it's the conclusions that you make based upon this evidence that is unreliable.  It contains a whole lot of speculation and assumptions.
No conclusions need to be drawn from this evidence. It is the entire body of evidence against Oswald that tells the story.
Can you explain to me the difference between your use of "speculation and assumptions" and inferences?
« Last Edit: March 24, 2018, 03:45:39 PM by Andrew Mason »

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #54 on: March 24, 2018, 03:39:31 PM »


Online John Iacoletti

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Re: The Magic Bullet
« Reply #55 on: March 25, 2018, 11:09:58 PM »
The point is that he carried a longish package and lied about its contents.

You don?t actually know that, because
a) you don?t know exactly what he said during interrogation
and
b) you don?t know what the contents were


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Oswald later dnied he told Frazier he carried anything other than his lunch. That is evidence tending to show that he was hiding something. It is a piece of evidence that contributes to the overall body of evidence that would lead 12 normal people to conclude that Oswald assassinatdd JFK.

?Hiding something? tells you that he killed someone?

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CE142 was altered by the fingerprint process. They made a replica CE364 and that was shown to Frazier.

They showed CE142 to Frazier the night of 11/22.

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Can you explain to me the difference between your use of "speculation and assumptions" and inferences?

I don?t see any distinction in the way you?re ?inferring? things.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2018, 05:25:02 PM by John Iacoletti »