Zeon?s original post, with my additions:
http://alt.assassination.jfk.narkive.com/bp1QdGQL/1967-cbs-special-a-cbs-news-inquiry-the-warren-report Below I show Zeon and my conclusions. It is true that the rifle often jammed. It appears to jam about half the time, at least with shooters who are unfamiliar with the rifle. And half the time it does not jam.
For the ?first attempt?, I refer to the first attempt that the rifle did not jam and all three shots were made.
Zeon's conclusions:
1. Al Sherman, Maryland State Trooper = missed head shot
5.0 seconds - 2 hits in orange silouhette, 1 blue low
6.0 seconds - 2 hits, 1 blue high (1st 2 shots in 2.2 seconds)
NO TIME -- bolt jammed at third cartridge
5.2 seconds - 1 hit, two low
5.0 seconds - 1 hit, 2 upper left blue
; Zeon?s conclusion: missed head shot
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt ? 2 hits
2. Ron George, Maryland State Trooper = missed all 3
NO TIME -- bolt jammed after 2nd shot; 3rd fired very late
NO TIME -- 3rd bullet jammed
4.9 seconds - 2 hits, 1 blue upper right
; Zeon?s conclusion: missed all three
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt ? 2 hits
3. John Concini, Maryland State Trooper = no comfirmed hits
6.3 seconds -- number of hits unreported
5.4 seconds -- 1 hit in silhouette, 2 blues "just low"
; Zeon?s conclusion: no confirmed hits
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt: unknown
4. Howard Donahue, weapons engineer = missed all 3
NO TIME -- second bullet jammed
NO TIME -- jam after first shot
5.2 seconds - 3 hits in orange silhouette grouped in head area (best
target)
; Zeon?s conclusion: missed all three
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt ? 3 hits
5. William Fitchett, sporting goods dealer = missed all 3
6.5 seconds -- 3 borderline hits, low & left along silhouette border
6.0 seconds -- 1 hit orange, 2 low blue
6.1 seconds -- number of hits unreported
; Zeon?s conclusion: all three missed
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt: all three hit
6. Somerset Fitchett, sportsman = missed head shot
NO TIME -- jammed at 3rd bullet
5.9 seconds -- 2 hits, 1 wide left
5.5 seconds -- 2 hits, 1 low
Zeon?s conclusion: missed head shot
Joe?s conclusion: first attempt: 2 hits
7. John Bollendorf, ballistics technician = no hits in orange
6.8 seconds - 2 hits in silhouette, 1 blue low left
NO TIME -- jam after 2nd shot
NO TIME -- jam again
6.5 seconds -- 1 orange hit, 2 near misses blue upper left
; Zeon?s conclusion: no hits in orange
; Joe?s conclusion: first attempt: 1 hit
8. Douglas Bazemore, ex-paratrooper (Viet vet) = no hits
NO TIME -- stiff bolt action
NO TIME -- unable to work bolt fast enough
NO TIME -- just too stiff for him
NO TIME -- 2 shots in 5 seconds; 3 shots in 9 seconds; gives up
; Zeon?s conclusion: no hits
; Joe?s conclusion: had problems with the bolt, unrecorded where the shots went
9. Carl Holden, H.P. White employee
NO TIME -- bolt jammed after 1st shot = no hits
NO TIME -- jammed again
5.4 seconds -- tight group of 3 hits in blue high right
; Zeon?s conclusion: no hits
; Joe?s conclusion on first attempt: no hits
10. Sid Price, H.P. White employee
5.9 seconds -- 1 hit orange, 1 blue, 1 nowhere (missed target completely)
4.3 seconds -- no hits reported
NO TIME -- jam after 2nd shot
4.1 seconds -- 1 hit orange, 2 complete misses (off blue)
; Zeon?s conclusion: not specified
; Joe conclusion on first attempt: 1 hit
11. Charles Hamby, H.P. White employee = no hits
NO TIME -- jammed
NO TIME -- jammed
6.5 seconds -- 2 blues close to silhouette, 1 completely missed target
; Zeon?s conclusion: no hits
; Joe?s conclusion on first attempt: no hits
I can see why you were reluctant to show the source of your claims, that all shooters missed all their shots on their first attempt.
There is one big problem with your scoring.
It is standard for shooters to receive instructions that any hit within the silhouette is a hit. Not that only a hit in the head area is a hit, but that any hit, anywhere in the silhouette is a hit. So, naturally, the shooters would aim at the ?fattest? part of the target, the chest area, to maximize their chances of getting a hit. Not at the head.
In contrast, someone trying to kill someone, and is shooting at short ranges, like under 100 yards, may chose to aim at the head, to maximize the odds of a fatal hit, even though they are shooting at a smaller target than the upper torso.
Questions:
Do you have any evidence that the CBS shooters were instructed to aim at the ?head? and not at the ?torso? part of the silhouette? And that any shot not on the ?head?, even one on the ?torso?, would be considered a miss?
Can you give any example, EVER, in any shooting test, that shooters where presented with a silhouette of a head and torso, but were instructed that any hit on the torso would be considered a ?Miss? and only a hit on the ?Head? would be considered a ?Hit?. I anticipate that you will dodge this question.
Joe?s Points:
** The 11 CBS shooters were all volunteers. I do not know if there was a single expert in the group. I doubt it. Several were Maryland State troopers, who would have some experience with firearms. I don?t know about all the H. P. White employees.
** The shooters were rushed more than Oswald. It appears they were trying to get off their shots in under 6 seconds. The best evidence, unknown in 1967, is that the shots were probably spaced over 8.7 seconds, and possibly longer.
** We have testimony from his wife that Oswald did not go target practicing with his rifle at lot, but did do so on at least one occasion, that she knows of.
** We have testimony from his wife that Oswald did practice a lot working the bolt. He may have been better at avoiding jams than any of the 11 CBS shooters.
Of the 11 CBS shooters:
** Counting unreported results as: 0 hits
** Defining the ?First attempt? as the first time the rifle successfully fired 3 shots
I find that:
** 4 shooters missed all the shots
** 2 shooters got 1 hit, 2 misses
** 3 shooters got 2 hits, 1 miss
** 2 shooters got 3 hits, no misses
For an average of 1.64 hits per shooter, on a moving target.
Basically, these shooters had a 50/50 chance of getting off three shots and if they did get off three shots, they got an average of 1.64 hits.
Joe?s Conclusions:
** Even if Oswald, with all the practice he had with the rifle bolt, was no better at avoiding rifle jams than the 11 CBS shooters, he had a 50 / 50 chance of getting off three shots.
** The Shooting tests imply that Oswald should get 1.64 hits. This is close to the 2 hits he did get.
The rifle was not ideal. Its biggest problem was its tendency to jam. But there is a good chance it would not jam. Perhaps a very good change for a shooter with proficiency working the bolt. Oswald may have been such a shooter, with his opportunity to practice over the course of several months.
