Is it plausible Oswald could have completely missed the limo with his first shot

[Tom Graves]

That argument works against your theory. Since Oswald had done much shooting he would have recognized that an early shot was not only difficult to make but would make quickly getting into position for any later shots much more difficult. So not only do you have zero evidence for an early missed shot, you have just explained why Oswald would not have made it.

You're assuming that the killer of JFK, Lee Harvey Oswald, was a rational person.

[Andrew Mason]

You're assuming that the killer of JFK, Lee Harvey Oswald, was a rational person.

No. I am saying the argument that Oswald would have knowingly taken a difficult first shot and that’s why it missed isn’t persuasive. If there was evidence of a first missed shot I would have to conclude that, for whatever reason, he made it. But there isn’t.

[Tom Graves]

If there was evidence of a first missed shot, I would have to conclude that, for whatever reason, he made it. But there isn’t.

Yes, there is.

As captured in the Zapruder film, at least seven prime witnesses to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124" moved their heads in conscious non-startle ways within half-a-second of each other about a second after said shot, and those witnesses included everyone in the limo except for the hard-to-see driver.

Governor Connally recognized the sounds as coming from a high-powered rifle and turned far to his right starting around Z-164 (after having turned to his left) in order to look towards the rear where he knew the shot had come from.

[Andrew Mason]

Yes, there is.

As captured in the Zapruder film, at least seven prime witnesses to the sounds of Oswald's first, missing-everything, shot at "Z-124" moved their heads in a conscious, non-startle, way within half-a-second of each other about a second after said shot, and those witnesses included everyone in the limo except for the hard-to-see driver.

Governor Connally recognized the sound as coming from a high-powered rifle and turned far to his right starting around Z-164 (after having turned to his left) in order to look towards the rear where he knew the shot had come.

That is not evidence of a shot.  At best that is evidence of something that caused them to turn to the right.  The evidence of what that was is provided by Mary Woodward and it was before the first “horrible ear-shattering noise”.

[David Von Pein]

I have just a bit of conceptual difficulty with a shot that misses everything followed by two longer shots that are pretty much right on the money.

Here's a possible explanation that you might not have thought of....

Oswald's Carcano rifle, per the FBI's firearms expert Robert Frazier, fired bullets high and to the right when using the 4-power scope. [See Frazier's Warren Commission testimony, at 3 H 404-405.]

If this was also the case when Oswald was shooting at JFK on November 22, and Oswald for some reason forgot this quirk about his scope when he squeezed off his first shot that day (if he used the scope at all, which is also debatable, of course), that could be at least a partial explanation as to why his first shot missed and (possibly) struck the nearby oak tree, a tree that would have been to Oswald's RIGHT if he was aiming a little to the tree's left through the scope just as JFK's car was nearing it from LHO's point-of-view (as illustrated in CE888 and CE875).

The Bottom Line (concerning the "missed shot"):

Nobody can know for certain what happened to that bullet. And nobody can know for certain whether the "oak tree" theory is accurate or not.

But, given the overall evidence (which certainly indicates that three shots and only three shots were fired during the assassination, with all three of those shots coming from Oswald's Sniper's Nest in the TSBD and from Oswald's Mannlicher-Carcano rifle, with two of those three bullets striking the victims in the limousine), I think the best guess re: the one missed shot is that that bullet did, indeed, hit the oak tree (which is a tree that was located to the RIGHT of Oswald at the time he fired that shot at approx. Z160, which fits in pretty well with a misaligned scope that might very well have been aiming "HIGH AND TO THE RIGHT" during the shooting, although that's another thing we'll never know for sure; it's quite possible that the scope became misaligned when Oswald dropped the gun amongst the boxes after the assassination).

More:
https://jfk-archives.blogspot.com/2010/07/missed-shot-controversy.html

[Tom Graves]

That is not evidence of a shot.  At best that is evidence of something that caused them to turn to the right. 

All starting around Z-145, JFK consciously looked to his left, Jackie consciously looked to her left, Connally consciously looked to his left, Nellie consciously looked to her right, and Kellerman consciously looked to his right.

[John Corbett]

Here's a possible explanation that you might not have thought of....

Oswald's Carcano rifle, per the FBI's firearms expert Robert Frazier, fired bullets high and to the right when using the 4-power scope. [See Frazier's Warren Commission testimony, at 3 H 404-405.]

If this was also the case when Oswald was shooting at JFK on November 22, and Oswald for some reason forgot this quirk about his scope when he squeezed off his first shot that day (if he used the scope at all, which is also debatable, of course), that could be at least a partial explanation as to why his first shot missed and (possibly) struck the nearby oak tree, a tree that would have been to Oswald's RIGHT if he was aiming a little to the tree's left through the scope just as JFK's car was nearing it from LHO's point-of-view (as illustrated in CE888 and CE875).

The Bottom Line (concerning the "missed shot"):

Nobody can know for certain what happened to that bullet. And nobody can know for certain whether the "oak tree" theory is accurate or not.

But, given the overall evidence (which certainly indicates that three shots and only three shots were fired during the assassination, with all three of those shots coming from Oswald's Sniper's Nest in the TSBD and from Oswald's Mannlicher-Carcano rifle, with two of those three bullets striking the victims in the limousine), I think the best guess re: the one missed shot is that that bullet did, indeed, hit the oak tree (which is a tree that was located to the RIGHT of Oswald at the time he fired that shot at approx. Z160, which fits in pretty well with a misaligned scope that might very well have been aiming "HIGH AND TO THE RIGHT" during the shooting, although that's another thing we'll never know for sure; it's quite possible that the scope became misaligned when Oswald dropped the gun amongst the boxes after the assassination).

More:
https://jfk-archives.blogspot.com/2010/07/missed-shot-controversy.html

The Haag ballistics team demonstrated that a Carcano bullet fired directly into asphalt and at the estimated angle Oswald's bullet would have hit the pavement would complete disintegrate and not ricochet. I don't think either a tree branch or the traffic arm would have been in the line of fire when the first shot was fired but because we don't have definitive proof of precisely when that shot was fired, it can't be ruled out.