"Overthinking" (or maybe not?) the Walker attempt

[John Corbett]

While I can't logically dismiss Charles' belief that the first shot was an accidental discharge, I still think it more probable that he missed right of his intended target due to an awkward shooting position, an unsteady rifle, and possibly a rushed shot with the tree looming ahead. Oswald is the only one who can answer that question definitively and he's not talking.

[Charles Collins]

While I can't logically dismiss Charles' belief that the first shot was an accidental discharge, I still think it more probable that he missed right of his intended target due to an awkward shooting position, an unsteady rifle, and possibly a rushed shot with the tree looming ahead. Oswald is the only one who can answer that question definitively and he's not talking.

It was the proverbial “warning shot”….       

[John Corbett]

It was the proverbial “warning shot”….       

Believe it or not, there was a guy on the McAdams forum who argued that. Oswald was trying to alert the protection detail that an assassination was about to take place. Another guy argued it was an alignment shot. He said no shooter would attempt a shot without first aligning his scope. The first shot was so he could make any necessary adjustments to the scope.

[Charles Collins]

Believe it or not, there was a guy on the McAdams forum who argued that. Oswald was trying to alert the protection detail that an assassination was about to take place. Another guy argued it was an alignment shot. He said no shooter would attempt a shot without first aligning his scope. The first shot was so he could make any necessary adjustments to the scope.

I have often thought that if JBC had only shouted “get down” after the first shot, instead of “oh no, their going to kill us all” after the second shot, that JFK might have survived.

[John Corbett]

I have often thought that if JBC had only shouted “get down” after the first shot, instead of “oh no, their going to kill us all” after the second shot, that JFK might have survived.

Had JFK reacted the way Trump did and immediately got down, he probably wouldn't have taken the fatal shot. Some have argued that his back brace helped to keep him upright in his seat. I have no opinion on that. JFK had almost five seconds to get down before the head shot but my viewing of the Z-film tells me he was in a WTF mindset, unaware of what was about to come next.

[Charles Collins]

I made a significant error and now I need to own up to it and correct things. The angle downwards from horizontal is about 55-degrees. I inadvertently used 35-degrees (that is actually the angle upwards from vertical, and the top angle of the triangle formed by the height and horizontal distance). When I set my tripod angle I made a mistake and used the wrong angle. So, here is what it looks like from the proper angle of 55-degrees.








As can be seen, when using the proper angle, the 2” target is closer to being correct than the 3” target is. I measured the apparent minimum distance to miss the entire limo (first image yellow line at bottom of the outside side of the limo) at 1-1/8”. This scales to be 27”. So I was wrong and John Corbett was closer to being correct than I was. Sorry everyone!   

This is embarrassing, but I was right the first time. I am going to have to stop second-guessing myself with ideas that come to me in the middle of the night. The 35-degrees down from horizontal is the proper angle (not the 55-degrees angle). So my first set of photos showing a minimum of 3' distance to miss the entire limousine is correct. The revised photos using a 55-degrees angle is incorrect. I apologize again and hope my credibility hasn't been completely destroyed...   

[John Corbett]

I'm glad you have acknowledged your error. I've made plenty of my own over the years. What I don't buy is your limiting the miss to just 3 feet. With all that was working against Oswald on that first shot. He would have been in a very awkward shooting position to fire that steep a downward shot. He would have been firing through a window about a foot from the floor and was only open about another foot, the boxes would not have been much help steadying the rifle, and his target was close to passing under the tree which could have caused him to rush the shot. A wild miss is not out of the question for that shot.