S. M. Holland's "Smoke" on the Grassy Knoll

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Oswald gets to the 2nd floor after 48 sec.  He stops.  What to do next?
Should he continue down to the first floor?
Should he go to the first floor via the front stairs?
Should he lay low in the lunch room?
His jacket is in the Domino Room.
Uh Oh -- He hears Adams & Styles klomping down the stairs in a real hurry on a mission.
Best to visit the coke machine & hope that whoever it is goes clean past.
They pass. He comes back out. What to do next?
He can't decide.  He will be less conspicuous if he takes the front stairs, but he would then have to walk back into & throo the storage area to get his jacket in the Domino Room.
He decides to continue down the back stairs.
He makes a start but then Truly hollers up the elevator shaft, so he goes back up.
Then he hears Baker & Truly galloping up the stairs, & he retreats to the coke machine a second time.
He walks slow & cool.
He would have been better off diving into the lunchroom in a hurry, & laying low, he knows there is no-one in there, but he knows that if seen rushing (by Truly & Co) it will be a sure sign that he is guilty of something.
He nearly makes it, another couple of slow steps & he will be out of sight.
But damn, Baker spots a bit of him throo the glass of the door & says to come back.
Truly says that Oswald works here, & Baker & Truly gallop off.
They get to the 5th floor & take the east elevator to the 7th floor.
Oswald gets a coke to look less guilty & more cool if confronted again.  And assassinations go better with coke.
The back stairs are now dangerous.  He heads for the front stairs, either forgetting about his jacket or deciding that his jacket is a dead duck.
But just in case more dumb cops are entering along the corridor he goes via the office.
Damn, he meets Jeraldean Reid as she returns to her desk.  Mrs Hine is also in the office but she doesn't notice Oswald, or forgets.
Reid in 3 re-enactments took exactly 120 sec to get to her desk, which is about right (ie to meet Oswald).
She says something as they pass & he mumbles something back.  Its not a good look.  He has no business in the office, unless wanting change for the coke machine. Its not even a short cut to the stairs. Damn.  Anyhow no big deal.
He goes down the front stairs & mixes with the growing throng in the lobby near the front door without raising any suspicion.
Someone asks him about a phone.
Ok, things aint so bad, praps he can take a chance & get his jacket from the Domino Room anyhow.
Hmmm – he can get his jacket by going out the front door & down the steps & around & entering via the Houston dock (like he does each morning), & walking 16 paces to the jacket.
Getting caught walking in shouldn’t result in getting bitten by a cop.
So, off he goes, but he gets a little ways up Houston & he sees Officer Barnett on sentry duty at the dock, & Barnett looks vicious.
So, a quick U-turn & back down Houston.  Buell Frazier sees him walking south along Houston.
No, the jacket is a dead duck.  He decides to get out of there asap, he crosses Houston & then crosses Elm.
Tippit is waiting.

[John Corbett]

Oswald gets to the 2nd floor after 48 sec.  He stops.  What to do next?
Should he continue down to the first floor?
Should he go to the first floor via the front stairs?
Should he lay low in the lunch room?
His jacket is in the Domino Room.
Uh Oh -- He hears Adams & Styles klomping down the stairs in a real hurry on a mission.
Best to visit the coke machine & hope that whoever it is goes clean past.
They pass. He comes back out. What to do next?
He can't decide.  He will be less conspicuous if he takes the front stairs, but he would then have to walk back into & throo the storage area to get his jacket in the Domino Room.
He decides to continue down the back stairs.
He makes a start but then Truly hollers up the elevator shaft, so he goes back up.
Then he hears Baker & Truly galloping up the stairs, & he retreats to the coke machine a second time.
He walks slow & cool.
He would have been better off diving into the lunchroom in a hurry, & laying low, he knows there is no-one in there, but he knows that if seen rushing (by Truly & Co) it will be a sure sign that he is guilty of something.
He nearly makes it, another couple of slow steps & he will be out of sight.
But damn, Baker spots a bit of him throo the glass of the door & says to come back.
Truly says that Oswald works here, & Baker & Truly gallop off.
They get to the 5th floor & take the east elevator to the 7th floor.
Oswald gets a coke to look less guilty & more cool if confronted again.  And assassinations go better with coke.
The back stairs are now dangerous.  He heads for the front stairs, either forgetting about his jacket or deciding that his jacket is a dead duck.
But just in case more dumb cops are entering along the corridor he goes via the office.
Damn, he meets Jeraldean Reid as she returns to her desk.  Mrs Hine is also in the office but she doesn't notice Oswald, or forgets.
Reid in 3 re-enactments took exactly 120 sec to get to her desk, which is about right (ie to meet Oswald).
She says something as they pass & he mumbles something back.  Its not a good look.  He has no business in the office, unless wanting change for the coke machine. Its not even a short cut to the stairs. Damn.  Anyhow no big deal.
He goes down the front stairs & mixes with the growing throng in the lobby near the front door without raising any suspicion.
Someone asks him about a phone.
Ok, things aint so bad, praps he can take a chance & get his jacket from the Domino Room anyhow.
Hmmm – he can get his jacket by going out the front door & down the steps & around & entering via the Houston dock (like he does each morning), & walking 16 paces to the jacket.
Getting caught walking in shouldn’t result in getting bitten by a cop.
So, off he goes, but he gets a little ways up Houston & he sees Officer Barnett on sentry duty at the dock, & Barnett looks vicious.
So, a quick U-turn & back down Houston.  Buell Frazier sees him walking south along Houston.
No, the jacket is a dead duck.  He decides to get out of there asap, he crosses Houston & then crosses Elm.
Tippit is waiting.

Most of what you are arguing is based on time frames for which there is no reliable source. Nobody was running a stopwatch on 11/22/63 so we don't know how long it actually took anybody to move from point A to point B. You could do ten reenactments and it still isn't going to prove anything. All the approximations can do is show what is possible, not how long it actually took anybody to move the distances they did. You also have no way of knowing how the various actions sync up with one another. We simply don't have the data to do that. You've constructed a scenario you believe fits within the established parameters. Due to the variables involved, there are hundreds of ways to construct a scenario that would fit within the parameters equally well. You are also making assumptions about Oswald's mindset at various times. It's OK to speculate as long as we don't treat our speculations as established facts.

Here's what we do know. Oswald reached the lunchroom before Truly and Baker reached the second floor landing. It is impossible to say precisely how long after the third shot it took any of the three men to reach the second floor landing. We can only approximate that. For reasons stated in my previous post, it is likely Oswald entered the lunchroom just seconds before Truly and Baker reached the second floor landing. That is my speculation but it is speculation based on what we know is true. Oswald entered the lunchroom before Truly and Baker reached the landing and did so seconds before Baker spotted him because if it had been longer, the inner door would have closed behind him and Baker could not have spotted him.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

Most of what you are arguing is based on time frames for which there is no reliable source. Nobody was running a stopwatch on 11/22/63 so we don't know how long it actually took anybody to move from point A to point B. You could do ten reenactments and it still isn't going to prove anything. All the approximations can do is show what is possible, not how long it actually took anybody to move the distances they did. You also have no way of knowing how the various actions sync up with one another. We simply don't have the data to do that. You've constructed a scenario you believe fits within the established parameters. Due to the variables involved, there are hundreds of ways to construct a scenario that would fit within the parameters equally well. You are also making assumptions about Oswald's mindset at various times. It's OK to speculate as long as we don't treat our speculations as established facts.

Here's what we do know. Oswald reached the lunchroom before Truly and Baker reached the second floor landing. It is impossible to say precisely how long after the third shot it took any of the three men to reach the second floor landing. We can only approximate that. For reasons stated in my previous post, it is likely Oswald entered the lunchroom just seconds before Truly and Baker reached the second floor landing. That is my speculation but it is speculation based on what we know is true. Oswald entered the lunchroom before Truly and Baker reached the landing and did so seconds before Baker spotted him because if it had been longer, the inner door would have closed behind him and Baker could not have spotted him.

Anything which duznt accord with my timelines iz wrong.
Some witness etc statements etc partly accord.
One hazta weigh the facts/statements. One haztahav a good BS meter. I made zero errors.
I feel sure that i will never hav to change one word of my timeline.
My timeline iz the only one that works, & will work for ever.
And its not az fixed az u might think.
For example, if u convince me that Baker & Co took an extra 15 seconds to get to the lunchroom then my timeline can accommodate that by adding 15 seconds to Oswald's trajektory.
Hmmm.... i notice that i hav not explained what happened to the (empty?)(partly full) bottle of coke. When/where did Oswald dump it? Could Oswald hav gotten 5 cents for the bottle. Woz there a bottle centre near Tippitt? I will be back.

[John Corbett]

Anything which duznt accord with my timelines iz wrong.
Some witness etc statements etc partly accord.
One hazta weigh the facts/statements. One haztahav a good BS meter. I made zero errors...

...that you know of.

Yes, one has to weigh facts and statements. The problem which you don't seem to recognize is that statements are not always entirely correct. In fact, more often than not they are at least partly wrong. Someone else could weigh the same factors and reach an entirely different conclusion and both could be plausible. What you are calling facts are simply your conclusions based on evidence. That doesn't mean they are facts. You might want to apply that BS meter to your own conclusions. On second thought, let me do that for you, step by step. What follows are some of your assertions.

"Oswald gets to the 2nd floor after 48 sec.  He stops."
What is your evidence Oswald stopped? I look at the same evidence and it seems to me Oswald never stopped but when he heard Truly and Baker coming up the stairs and immediately ducked into the lunchroom. Both your scenario and mine are plausible and neither of us can prove we are right.

"He hears Adams & Styles klomping down the stairs in a real hurry on a mission."
What is your evidence he heard them coming down the stairs or that they were even on the stairs at the same time he was? Sounds like an assumption to me.

"They pass. He comes back out. What to do next?
He can't decide.  He will be less conspicuous if he takes the front stairs, but he would then have to walk back into & throo the storage area to get his jacket in the Domino Room.
He decides to continue down the back stairs.
He makes a start but then Truly hollers up the elevator shaft, so he goes back up.
Then he hears Baker & Truly galloping up the stairs, & he retreats to the coke machine a second time.
He walks slow & cool."
How could you possibly know what Oswald thinking at the time? Let me answer that for you. You can't. You are making assumptions about things that are not in evidence. They might sound good to you, but they are anything but established facts. I have no reason to believe Oswald ever hesitated once he reached the second floor. My reading of the evidence is he immediately ducked into the lunchroom upon hearing Truly and Baker coming up the stairs and at no time came backout the same way he went in. My reading of the evidence is that as soon as Baker and Truly left, he bought a Coke and then headed for the front stairs through Mrs. Reid's office. Again, I can't prove my scenario is the correct one any more than you can.

"But just in case more dumb cops are entering along the corridor he goes via the office.
Damn, he meets Jeraldean Reid as she returns to her desk"
We both agree he exited through Reid's office. You are the only one pretending to know what he was thinking at the time which is something you couldn't possibly know.

"Ok, things aint so bad, praps he can take a chance & get his jacket from the Domino Room anyhow.
Hmmm – he can get his jacket by going out the front door & down the steps & around & entering via the Houston dock (like he does each morning), & walking 16 paces to the jacket."
What evidence do you have that Oswald was the least bit concerned about getting his jacket from the Domino Room? Another big assumption on your part with no supporting evidence. You simply assumed it. 

"So, off he goes, but he gets a little ways up Houston & he sees Officer Barnett on sentry duty at the dock, & Barnett looks vicious.
So, a quick U-turn & back down Houston.  Buell Frazier sees him walking south along Houston."
This one is a doozy. What evidence do you have that Oswald went down Houston at all after leaving via the front door? What evidence do you have that he saw Officer Barnett? What evidence do you have that Barnett looked vicious? What evidence do you have that Oswald did a U-turn? Finally, what evidence do you have that Frazier saw Oswald walking south on Houston? I just reviewed his WC testimony. Houston is mentioned 10 times. The first time he was speaking of the city of Houston. All the others were in reference to how he and Oswald arrived at the TSBD that morning. No mention of Oswald or Houston post assassination. Now if you know of another source which indicates Frazier saw Oswald on Houston following the assassination, please provide that. Otherwise we can just assume you made all of this up.

[Marjan Rynkiewicz]

...that you know of.

Yes, one has to weigh facts and statements. The problem which you don't seem to recognize is that statements are not always entirely correct. In fact, more often than not they are at least partly wrong. Someone else could weigh the same factors and reach an entirely different conclusion and both could be plausible. What you are calling facts are simply your conclusions based on evidence. That doesn't mean they are facts. You might want to apply that BS meter to your own conclusions. On second thought, let me do that for you, step by step. What follows are some of your assertions.

"Oswald gets to the 2nd floor after 48 sec.  He stops."
What is your evidence Oswald stopped? I look at the same evidence and it seems to me Oswald never stopped but when he heard Truly and Baker coming up the stairs and immediately ducked into the lunchroom. Both your scenario and mine are plausible and neither of us can prove we are right.

"He hears Adams & Styles klomping down the stairs in a real hurry on a mission."
What is your evidence he heard them coming down the stairs or that they were even on the stairs at the same time he was? Sounds like an assumption to me.

"They pass. He comes back out. What to do next?
He can't decide.  He will be less conspicuous if he takes the front stairs, but he would then have to walk back into & throo the storage area to get his jacket in the Domino Room.
He decides to continue down the back stairs.
He makes a start but then Truly hollers up the elevator shaft, so he goes back up.
Then he hears Baker & Truly galloping up the stairs, & he retreats to the coke machine a second time.
He walks slow & cool."
How could you possibly know what Oswald thinking at the time? Let me answer that for you. You can't. You are making assumptions about things that are not in evidence. They might sound good to you, but they are anything but established facts. I have no reason to believe Oswald ever hesitated once he reached the second floor. My reading of the evidence is he immediately ducked into the lunchroom upon hearing Truly and Baker coming up the stairs and at no time came backout the same way he went in. My reading of the evidence is that as soon as Baker and Truly left, he bought a Coke and then headed for the front stairs through Mrs. Reid's office. Again, I can't prove my scenario is the correct one any more than you can.

"But just in case more dumb cops are entering along the corridor he goes via the office.
Damn, he meets Jeraldean Reid as she returns to her desk"
We both agree he exited through Reid's office. You are the only one pretending to know what he was thinking at the time which is something you couldn't possibly know.

"Ok, things aint so bad, praps he can take a chance & get his jacket from the Domino Room anyhow.
Hmmm – he can get his jacket by going out the front door & down the steps & around & entering via the Houston dock (like he does each morning), & walking 16 paces to the jacket."
What evidence do you have that Oswald was the least bit concerned about getting his jacket from the Domino Room? Another big assumption on your part with no supporting evidence. You simply assumed it. 

"So, off he goes, but he gets a little ways up Houston & he sees Officer Barnett on sentry duty at the dock, & Barnett looks vicious.
So, a quick U-turn & back down Houston.  Buell Frazier sees him walking south along Houston."
This one is a doozy. What evidence do you have that Oswald went down Houston at all after leaving via the front door? What evidence do you have that he saw Officer Barnett? What evidence do you have that Barnett looked vicious? What evidence do you have that Oswald did a U-turn? Finally, what evidence do you have that Frazier saw Oswald walking south on Houston? I just reviewed his WC testimony. Houston is mentioned 10 times. The first time he was speaking of the city of Houston. All the others were in reference to how he and Oswald arrived at the TSBD that morning. No mention of Oswald or Houston post assassination. Now if you know of another source which indicates Frazier saw Oswald on Houston following the assassination, please provide that. Otherwise we can just assume you made all of this up.

Frazier made a verbal or written statement that he saw Oswald walking south in Houston, then crossing Houston, then crossing Elm.
But i havnt time to find it. I am writing a book re billiards, in 5 volumes. And i need to finish that so that i can write a book re elekticity on a wire, which haz my priority over jfk stuff & billiards stuff.

Living history with Buell Wesley Frazier....... at 34:50  of  1:00:16.
Frazier saw Oswald walking along the side of the TSBD along Houston walking from the dock........

[John Corbett]

Frazier made a verbal or written statement that he saw Oswald walking south in Houston, then crossing Houston, then crossing Elm.
But i havnt time to find it. I am writing a book re billiards, in 5 volumes. And i need to finish that so that i can write a book re elekticity on a wire, which haz my priority over jfk stuff & billiards stuff.

The old "the dog ate my homework excuse".